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mrbungieon OpenAI researcher announced GPT-5 math breakthrough that never happened

That's not any employee, its their VP of Science.

It's hell useful, I use Cursor several times a week (and I'm not even working as a dev full time rn), and ChatGPT is my daily driver.

Yet, it's weird to me that we're 3 years into this "revolution" and I can't get a decent slideshow from an LLM without having to practically build a framework for doing so.

mrbungieon AI Is Too Big to Fail

Yep, but instead of that we're wasting land, energy and resources in data centers that run "you are not the father" memes based on Sora 2.

mrbungieon After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

> but we could still be in for 50 years of suffering.

I mean if you are talking about USA itself falling into dystopic metastability in such a situation, maybe, but even so I think it misses some nuance. I don't see every other country following USA into oblivion, and also I don't see the USA bending the knee to techno-kings and in the process giving up real influence for some bet on total influence.

The only mechanism I see for reaching complete stability (or at least metastability) in that situation is idiocracy / idiotic authoritarianism, i.e. Trump/his minions actually grabbing power for decades and/or complete corruption of USA institutions.

mrbungieon After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

> If you think I'm being hyperbolic calling out a future of brutal serfdom. Keep in mind we basically have widespread serfdom now; a big chunk of Americans are in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. The only thing keeping it from being official is the lack of debtor's prison. Think about how much worse things will be with 10% inflation, 25% unemployment and the highest income inequality in history. This is fertile ground for a revolution, and historically the elites would have taken a step back to try and make the game seem less rigged as a self-preservation tactic, but this time is different. As far as I can tell, the tech oligarchs don't care because they're banking on their private island fortresses and an army of terminators to keep the populace in line.

This is suggesting an "end of history" situation. After Fukuyama, we know there is no such thing.

I'm not sure if there is a single strong thesis (as this one tries to be) on how this will end economically and geopolitically. This is hard to predict, much less to bet on.

mrbungieon OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals

https://openai.com/es-419/index/openai-nvidia-systems-partne...

OpenAI => nVidia => OpenAI. That's pretty circular.

mrbungieon When money is abundant, knowledge is the real wealth (2020)

Wisdom and experience then? Not sure if what I focus when looking for a doctor or a lawyer is passing a prerequisite exam for doing their jobs.

mrbungieon How the AI Bubble Will Pop

That's Jevons paradox for you.

mrbungieon How the AI Bubble Will Pop

> What kind of question is that? Seriously. Are some people here so naive to think that tens of millions out there don’t know when something they choose to use repeatedly multiple times a day every day is making their life harder?

That's just an appeal to masses / bandwagon fallacy.

> Is it so hard to believe that ChatGPT is actually productive?

We need data, not beliefs and current data is conflicting. ffs.

mrbungieon John Carmack's arguments against building a custom XR OS at Meta

Only if you are an expert who wants to use time debugging LLM code rather than coding it yourself.

PS: Half-joking, you can write some big portions with LLMs but the point stands.

mrbungieon Accelerating life sciences research

You are probably going to be downvoted this, and with some justification even (i.e. implying something about visitors).

Anyways, this is old and the original post didn't get much attention anyways: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44985844

mrbungieon IBM and AMD to work on quantum-centric supercomputing

Shhh, big tech needs a new dragon to chase iff GenAI stops being shiny.

Non-cynic take: exploration-based endeavors still may end up in useful developments.

mrbungieon The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

Yep, but the dotcom burst was still was a burst. Ex post success does not matter in that analysis, and in fact, I'm arguing that the dotcom burst was instrumental for companies like Facebook, Youtube and Google to develop as they did.

mrbungieon The warning signs the AI bubble is about to burst

> Given how much capital has already been committed to infrastructure development I find it very unlikely that even a Black Monday style market correction will do much to alter the medium and long term outlook for ai development and investment.

So let's bet on sunken cost fallacy? That didn't work out during the dotcom era.

When people talk about the bubble is mostly about ending the LLM hype, not making everything associated just disappear. The infrastructure, ideas and developments will stay and probably end up being a lot more useful without the noisy hype surrounding it right now.

mrbungieon Google scores six-year Meta cloud deal worth over $10B

> Atm, Google cloud is only good for cheap high-ram one-run-centric compute (AWS is cheaper for generic compute and reserved compute), simple container execution (Cloud Run), and ~100 TB bulk storage.

You are crazy if you imply AWS Athena or Azure Synapse are better than BigQuery.

mrbungieon Show HN: OpenAI/reflect – Physical AI Assistant that illuminates your life

inb4: When sama and co talk about UBI, they mean a variation of it based around a memecoin tethered/indexed on (tik)tokens.

mrbungieon AI is different

People just want to feel special pointing a possibility, so in case it happens, they can then point towards their "insight".

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

Yeah, sure, but we were talking about giving the person meth, not amphetamines or lisdexamphetamine.

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

Desoxyn is meth, they could eventually prescribe it if there was any evidence of therapeutic value in doing so.

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

I thought we were talking about outcomes, not opinions. Are those other humans doctors? Is there the clinical research or guidelines to backup giving meth to a person in withdrawal syndrome?

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

Yes, afaik BPD is the only Cluster B diagnosis with documented remission rates, when using a mix of therapies that normally are based around DBT.

Not sure what you refer about "talk therapy" in this case (psychoanalysis, maybe?), as even CBT needs homework and check-ins to be done.

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

The point isn't whether the word narcolepsy appears (I only mentioned it due to the "closing eyes" phrase), restarting doses of meth is not warranted in almost no context except a life-or-death withdrawal episode (i.e. like a person pointing a gun towards another person for getting meth).

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

> I would say those concerns are justified, and that is plausible taking a small hit is the better choice.

Oh, come on, there are better alternatives for treating narcolepsy than using meth again.

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

Nope, that's not right. BPD can't be treated with CBT (comorbidities may be, with caveats if BPD is the root cause), you probably will also need at least DBT.

mrbungieon Illinois limits the use of AI in therapy and psychotherapy

I promise you that by next year AI will be there, just believe me bro. /s.

mrbungieon LLMs aren't world models

> Aren’t all models representations, by definition? What exactly do you think a world model is, if not something expressible in language?

I was following the string of questions, but I think there is a logical leap between those two questions.

Another question: is Language the only way to define models? An imagined sound or an imagined picture of an apple in my minds-eye are models to me, but they don't use language.

mrbungieon Show HN: Reactive: A React Book for the Reluctant (written by Claude)

I would define a new "Robinhood Commons" license for these cases then.

mrbungieon Digital Foundry leaves IGN, now independent [video]

As a videogamer I hope Digital Foundry survives this, because they give lots of data-based insights about the industry, especially from a tech perspective. And as a follower and fan of their videos, I must add that these guys seem smart enough to figure it out.

mrbungieon Hire People Who Care (2020)

Not to invoke a true scotsman fallacy, but most knowledge/white-collar workers I know aspire to be more than just being a cog on a payroll.

mrbungieon GPT-5 leaked system prompt?

Me too, sometimes it feels so cathartic that I feel like when Bob Ross shook up his paintbrush violently on his easel (only with a lot more swearing).

Let's hope there is no basilisk.