838 karma · joined June 14, 2014
Out of all the heads of AI orgs out there, Dennis is the best, but the book did him a disservice by painting an unrealistically sunny picture of him as some kind of visionary figure.
Note: I'm expressing some skepticism here largely due to how recent rollouts from Meta flopped. Sincerely hoping that they do better this time around!
How does one get their hands on these models? They are not open-source, right? I go to meta.ai, but it's just a chat interface---no equivalent to codex or claud code? Can you use this through OpenCode? Is meta charging for model access, or is the gathering of chat data a sufficiently large tithe?
I've pulled a few thousand cups of long espresso from this guy since we bought it two years ago. Much, much nicer and lower maintenance than a boiler machine. If one wants, you can go deep down the rabbit hole of heat control, etc. but even as a "just boil water and make espresso" machine it works great, with no fuss.
Unfortunately, after buying this thing I can't justify buying other coffee objects that are beautiful but would probably make worse coffee than the robot, e.g., the Moccamaster and other drip machines.
Your question about what degree of parallelization is unfortunately too vague to really answer. SSDs offer some internal parallelism. Need more parallelism / IOPS? You can stick a lot more SSDs on your machine. Need many machines worth of SSDs? Disaggregate them, but now you need to think about your network bandwidth, NICs, cross-machine latency, and fault-tolerance.
The best engineers I've seen are usually excellent at napkin math.
I'm not sure what gives the authors the confidence to predict such statements. Wishful thinking? Worst-case paranoia? I agree that such an outcome is possible, but on 2--3 year timelines? This would imply that the approach everyone is taking right now is the right approach and that there are no hidden conceptual roadblocks to achieving AGI/superintelligence from DFS-ing down this path.
All of the predictions seem to ignore the possibility of such barriers, or at most acknowledge the possibility but wave it away by appealing to the army of AI researchers and industry funding being allocated to this problem. IMO it is the onus of the proposers of such timelines to argue why there are no such barriers and that we will see predictable scaling in the 2--3 year horizon.