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mgce

105 karma · joined March 1, 2016

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mgce··on They Could Buy, but Why? Meet the High-Renters
Good point. What you're describing, at core, is leverage. The general principle of leverage is that it exaggerates the market's natural results. When things go up you stand to make a lot of money. But when things go down you stand to lose a lot of money.

One mistake (IMO) many people make about housing is not adequately thinking through the second possibility.

mgce··on They Could Buy, but Why? Meet the High-Renters
Brownstone neighborhoods stress these numbers even further (e.g. much of "hot" Brooklyn).

These consist largely of 19th century buildings. And even the "modern" apartment buildings are 1920s, 1930s, etc. These are also precisely the neighborhoods that zone-limit modern construction to avoid compromising their character.

So you have a bunch of old buildings that need serious maintenance, sometimes by firms with specialized and otherwise outdated skill sets (e.g. stoop rebuilding and iron fence work).

Many of these neighborhoods are also in historic districts, meaning they're landmark-protected to preserve traditional architectural character.

Brooklyn Heights is a prime example. Essentially the whole neighborhood is one big historic district. The housing stock is ancient. And it's a highly desirable neighborhood. Maintenance fees can easily waver between $1,000 and $2,000. There are very few modern condos (which basically avoid these problems). So their very scarcity inflates their purchase prices. All in all you get a very difficult place to live in and own property.

mgce··on They Could Buy, but Why? Meet the High-Renters
And if that's not a wild enough ride, try land leases.

I can't for the life of me figure out any way to be truly comfortable with a land lease.

NYC real estate is a really weird world.

mgce··on They Could Buy, but Why? Meet the High-Renters
I didn't see where the parent assumed the $3k per month would stay static.

Also recall that selling a place for more than you paid for it doesn't mean you've made money. As I'm sure you know, owning property also involves substantial ongoing costs (beyond the purchase price) that never get recouped: maintenance, property fees, incidental construction / renovation, insurance, mortgage taxes, real estate fees, and so on. Never mind the lost investment potential from the down payment, which is now a sunk cost vs. something that could have earned interest in the markets.

I'm not trying to challenge your anecdote; just to recognize that even with stories like yours the truth is complicated and hard to assess.

For my part, my experience has taught me to be especially wary of "hot markets" - the hype that comes with them IMO artificially inflates real estate prices to a point where the underlying value can easily get lost. I happen to be very lucky in having a rent situation that easily beats purchasing, even over multiple years. But I acknowledge rental arrangements can also get hyped, so a bad rental situation can also cost you.

mgce··on The Heroin Business Is Booming in America
> Harm in vice will always occur. We just have to decide if we want it in the form of overdose, or the form of black market versus police state violence.

I think this is one of the key insights. Although, thankfully, I think it's more than a binary choice (either a) legal or b) illegal).

Regulated legality combined with heavy restrictions on marketing and sustained support for rehab / support / education seems to me the best of all worlds. Still keep things accessible enough to cut out the motivation for the black market. But don't let the less scrupulous side of legal society run amok and actively exploit that.

mgce··on The Heroin Business Is Booming in America
I firmly believe alcohol marketing is a major contributor toward alcohol continuing to be one of the most destructive drugs in our society. It's glamorized in a a savvy and well-funded way that puts an incessant haze in our understanding of it as a a powerful, poisonous, and potentially debilitating substance.

You can find billboards that make bottles of liquor look like royal treasure passed down from the gods. It's ultimately poison in a bottle. This kind of glorification of it hurts people who don't have the ability to enjoy it without consequence (i.e. millions of people in the U.S.).

mgce··on The Heroin Business Is Booming in America
> The taboo truth is people do drugs because they are fun

I don't agree with this.

This is true for some cases, yes. But it's just as common if not more common for people to take drugs to mask pain. It's not about the drug being fun, but about the overwhelming pain of life being temporarily numbed.

Some drugs start off as fun before becoming something more severe. Others are never fun - they're just coping mechanisms.

mgce··on The Heroin Business Is Booming in America
I want to agree with you, and I think I mostly do.

Unfortunately your comment also reminds me how enormous the barriers remain toward people recognizing alcoholism and having the will to treat it. There's an enormous amount of shame, stigma, and denial toward alcoholism, to the point that most who suffer from it still choose to hide that reality as much as they possibly can.

Even worse, the legality of it promotes a culture of celebration (advertising, fancy and elaborate liquor branding, snazzy bars, nightlife culture, bottle service, etc. etc) that is in so many ways uniquely destructive in its own right. Like everyone should be able to find joy in drinking, and those who struggle have something horribly wrong in them that carries the risk of denying them the good life, friends, social opportunities, cultural connection, and so on (suddenly mundane invitations to bars, cocktail parties, weddings, shows, dinner at a friend's home, drinks with co-workers, etc. become awkward and potentially dangerous).

There's a whole culture built around it: mainstream culture. And someone facing their problems with this particular drug face the prospect of losing access to the culture of their entire society. That's just daunting.

I don't think making alcohol illegal would help. But it's no walk in the park even legal. And poses some of its own unique challenges.

mgce··on Welcome, ACLU
> Corporations don't have morality, they have profit motives. YC doesn't give a shit about immigrant rights any more than the unjust deaths of african americans around the US, they care about attracting certain demographics to apply as founders.

I see no evidence this is the case, or that the founders of YC aren't human beings who also make decisions out of legitimate concern for the betterment of the world.

mgce··on Welcome, ACLU
Come on - this is egregiously cynical. You know this isn't really the case.
mgce··on Peak Millennial? Cities Can’t Assume a Continued Boost from the Young
Pacific Park has been a uniquely challenging and contentious project. It's an extreme outlier.
mgce··on Study: carpooling apps could reduce traffic 3x in NYC
I'm not sure if you're already aware of this, but NYC has also been aggressively building out cycling infrastructure since the Bloomberg administration. So your point is not unknown to policy makers:

http://www.amny.com/transit/new-york-city-to-reach-1-000-mil...

mgce··on Study: carpooling apps could reduce traffic 3x in NYC
They could be referring to rent stabilization, which is closer to 50%:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control_in_New_York#New_Y...

(not that I'm convinced either is a problem for this discussion)

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
Yeah, I get your point. It's an interesting one worth real consideration. And that's an ongoing conversation between the community and the permanent staff that the community understandably remains hyper-vigilant about constantly.

But my specific point was that I don't believe the author of the blog post is paid by Burning Man. So I don't believe the content of the blog post would be inspired by that angle (correct me if you find out otherwise). That inclines me to consider its viewpoint more seriously, precisely for the reasons you mention.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
Hey Gruselbauer,

In specific response to your pondering the many faces of Burning Man - at core it's a temporary city of 70,000 people. That means it's a large and diverse place. That's why you can hear so many wildly different stories about what kind of place it is - it's each of those to the different people who seek those things.

Think of it like any other city - is New York a debaucherous party destination? A crucible for art and theater? A whitewashed yuppie land of banks and condos? An immigrant melting pot? A loud and dirty merry-go-round that never stops? A home of amazing, beautiful, inspired people who try their hardest to craft a community where people can live and thrive?

It's all of those things. And more. Cities are too complex and diverse to be reduced to a single dimension. Burning Man is no exception. There's a reason they call is Black Rock City.

In that sense, it's in so many ways a reflection of whatever you seek and however you feel. If you go into it looking to party that's what you're going to find. If you bring open energy and enthusiasm for your fellow human being, and a desire to simply connect and bond with others, you'll find that in bounds. If you bring a fear of pretentious Silicon Valley tycoons using it as their own self-serving dumping ground, you can find that if that's really where you want to direct your energies. And so on.

That's of course also why you'll continue to hear so many varied opinions on it (and so many explanations of how it's been ruined). Some people are convinced it's the epitome of civilization's decline. Others see it as the most important and nurturing community they've ever known. Etc. It's large and diverse enough to serve as a really big mirror to all the myriad ways people project their own identities onto it.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
This entire comment is deeply ignorant and ill-spirited. You don't understand Burning Man. There's nothing wrong with that; it's not an easy thing to understand, particularly if all your knowledge is second-hand anecdotal.

Where you go astray is when you pass judgment anyway. You are not qualified to judge the moral value of peoples' experiences at Burning Man any more than they're qualified to judge the value of your own experience and efforts.

There's a lot to legitimately critique about the event. I'm sorry you feel unwilling to see it at face value - at which point interesting discussions can really happen - and instead want to go for a fatalistic scorched earth policy of bringing down an entire community based on your own biases and personal projections.

That community will continue to welcome you if and when you ever approach it with some humility.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
You're fundamentally misunderstanding what I and others are saying.

We're talking about the opposite of cowering away. We're talking about the exact community building you value - both out there and back at home.

You're also clearly writing with a chip on your shoulder. I don't know what bad experience created that chip, but I'm not interested in fighting you or putting down your own experience. Please try to offer the same in return.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
Bringing Burning Man's inspiration into real life is one of the great outcomes of the experience. It gives me and many people I know much greater confidence in being open, giving and playful toward friends and strangers in the real world when we get back. It's really neat to bring out moments of spontaneous interaction and smiles, i.e. simple moments of raw human connection, in interactions that would normally be met with people buried in their cell phones, avoiding eye contact, and basically doing anything possible to avoid having to acknowledge their fellow human beings.

There's another word for this that doesn't use phrases like "Burning Man" or "real life". That's: "community". My experience has been that it's harder to find and sustain enthusiastic community in the real world. When it happens it's of course great, but people in their day to day tend to be resistant to it. Temporary experience with a more open, enthusiastic, and non-judgmental community than you're normally used to can be an invigorating experience for some.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
A number of my close friends are part of the gay community there, so I strongly care about that issue. My experience has been that the gay community is very strong and has as good relations with police as anyone. Of all the complaints I've heard about police, I really haven't heard that as a theme. I'm sorry your friends had that bad experience.

The (overbearing) presence of police is dispiriting, and is most definitely a sunk cost of the growth and notoriety of the event as it now is. No one enjoys that. It is what it is. That said, it's easy to overstate its impact - they're ultimately a very small part of the experience and don't really stop you from doing whatever you want to do out there.

Burning Man is not what it was in 2000. People who really enjoyed what it was then may not enjoy what it is now. But it really isn't Disneyland or Vegas. Thankfully (in my experience), there's still a long, long way to go before it gets there. When it's getting there I'll be the first to step off the ride. But I'm still enthusiastically in love with what it is now and proud of the communities I know and have been a part of. They're some of the most solid people I've ever known. That's mostly, in the end, what keeps me there.

Our conversation sounds like a "changing of the guards" dialogue. I'm glad you have good memories from your times and I hope you can find some joy knowing there are still people with fires in their heart stirring the flames.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
Burning Man is fundamentally different than Disneyland and is still pumping out extremely strong culture. 99% of the disappointment people have at Burning Man is precisely because of that - expecting a "show", or something that's going to be on display to entertain them, then feeling bored / disillusioned / shunned when the reality that they have to do real work to connect into it sets (or doesn't set) in.

Your interpretation sounds excessively jaded to me and irreconcilable with the communities I know that continue to nurture and grow from BM.

I notice in particular your comment about coming to catered camps. That's precisely what Burning Man's community is pushing back hardest against, because the community wants to avoid the exact degeneration into vapid entertainment that you're claiming it's become. It's deeply deceptive to suggest this is a lost battle, or that the heart that makes this community something more isn't still strong and fighting very hard for the good fight.

Edit: I didn't notice your comment about gay people. What are you trying to express there? Black Rock City has to be one of the most gay-friendly places on earth. Where are you getting these ideas?

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
I do wish there was some way to ban cell phones out there. You may have noticed there's even reception now - this started in 2015 and, to my knowledge, isn't BM's fault - one of the cell companies decided to put up a tower nearby.

That change saddens me.

That said, in the end I basically adopt your last sentence as my ethos. Change is inevitable and the saddest thing of all is to miss what's still great because you're too focused on what's lost.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
This is a really different perspective than I've ever heard, and I'm intrigued. I've built up a lot of skepticism especially toward the Nevada authorities and their own good will (maybe not so much BLM) after hearing so many anecdotes of them making unreasonable demands and disinterest in even trying to integrate with the broader community.

And of course there's the standard argument that while BM should have leverage, they're also so wedded to the site they're essentially a captive audience. And all the authorities know this. So I'm not sure they really have so much natural power.

Anyway, I'm open-mindedly curious about your own perspective. But I still remain really skeptical about the natural good will of local law enforcement and especially that there was anything reasonable about them jacking up usage fees (e.g. the new Nevada live entertainment tax), which just feels like a plain old power play fleecing at heart.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
You sound like you're not a good fit for Burning Man.

I hope you don't take this as a negative comment. That's not why I'm writing this. It's definitely not for everyone; it helps no one trying to make it an event for everyone, and anyone who considers it needs to do real soul searching about their own identity and how that might intersect with the event. You're showing clear self-awareness which is leading you to a particular intuition. I respect that you can see with confidence who you are and where your cultural fit is.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
Frat parties are the least compelling cultural experience I could possibly imagine. But Burning Man has changed my life (for the better) and given me some of the greatest boosts of inspiration and self-love and purpose I've ever known. I'm still deeply thankful for my first introduction to that community in 2013. I'm still a slightly different person as a result of it.

The feeling of "I'm not cool enough for Burning Man" makes 100% sense. I know many people who have keenly felt that. I've felt it myself off and on. If you let yourself fall into the wrong mindset it can definitely bring you down.

But some of my greatest inspiration from Burning Man comes from having learned how not to give into those insecurities, and to have let myself see with open eyes the supportive community that really is there and shows authentic enthusiasm for you just because you're you: no matter how uncool, introverted, shy, awkward, or whatever other non-sexy self-label you apply to yourself.

One of the greatest strengths of Burning Man's community at its best (in my opinion) is offering such unique support for people proudly being whoever they are. Even if they're uncool. Especially if they're uncool. You are loved and accepted simply because of who you are.

Yes, this sounds like hippie nonsense. Yes, it's not universally practiced and there are elements that don't buy into it. It's definitely not a walk in the park. But that magic is really there. I felt it through some combination of dumb luck and personal openness to the world and I'm deeply thankful to have found it.

Maybe your path can help you find that too, maybe not. I'm lucky to have found some amazing personal community there that continues to support me even in my weaker moments. But I assure you, as best as I'm able as random words here on a computer screen, that you could be a deeper fit in that community than you may realize. Maybe you'll never go there (and I'd be the last to judge you if you don't). But if so, it's not because you're not cool enough for the party.

mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
Come to Burning Man one day! The community would love to have you, and you are clearly ready to connect (and grow) with it.
mgce··on A Brief History of Who Ruined Burning Man
I believe the author is an unpaid volunteer.

More broadly, I'm not sure I fully understand the criticsm. There is paid staff, yes. But that's still a vanishingly tiny percentage of the effort that makes Burning Man what it is. It is still first and foremost a volunteer effort, and lives or dies by that effort. It's exceptionally few people, to my understanding, who earn money. I believe you can find a list of all of them on the BM financials page.

mgce··on Basic income plan clearly rejected by Swiss voters
Rental prices are what the market will bear. These may or may not be strongly correlated to the landlord's ownership.

Two very relevant examples of when the "amortization" argument won't apply:

- a rising market in which the landlord bought a long time ago. Their purchase price was way below the area's current market value. So they can cover their expenses while you still pay less in rent than what a modern-day mortgage would be.

- a home buying market that's expecting continued pricing appreciation. Homeowners can (and will) rent out property at a loss with the expectation it'll be made up in a higher sale value years down the line. Whether or not this actually happens, of course, depends on their ability to accurately predict the future.

There's also the inverse case of declining markets, when landlords can end up over the heads financially and simply can't charge the rates they need to cover their mortgages, because the entire area has turned south.

There are very real financial risks to landlords. They can't just charge whatever they want. It really depends on the state and future of their market.

mgce··on Forty Percent of the Buildings in Manhattan Could Not Be Built Today
My understanding is that in Midtown there's been a stronger appetite for building tall on the avenues vs. mid block between the avenues.

That's, as I recall, why there was the infamous chopping of 200 feet from the under-construction Nouvel Tower on West 53rd St - right smack dab in the middle of the land of skyscrapers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/53W53

which in my view was a minor travesty and loss of a great skyline opportunity.

mgce··on Forty Percent of the Buildings in Manhattan Could Not Be Built Today
Look, as a fellow 20-year New York City veteran, you can see in this city what you want to. You're clearly taking a bleak view on it. I'm sorry you've viewed so much of the city through this lens and been turned off by it. But this really speak more of your lens than intrinsic qualities of the city.

I agree with you that the educational infrastructure here is sadly lacking. And the highways.

I largely disagree with most everything else you've shared. Jersey City and East New York aren't remotely similar to each other - huge swaths of Jersey City are perfectly livable and lightyears ahead of East New York, which is notoriously one of the city's most challenged neighborhoods. Huge swaths of Jersey City are also downtrodden, but... it's an entire city. It varies up and down. East New York is just a single neighborhood.

Trashcan cleanliness is middle of the road - I've certainly seen better but I've certainly seen worse. New York is a far cleaner city than the stereotypes suggest. Some blocks are absurdly filthy. Others are pristinely taken care of and perfectly clean.

I couldn't disagree more strongly on your attitude about housing projects. They are not death zones. You're not placing your life into your hands by walking through them. You can use your iPhone walking straight through the middle of many of them and you will have zero problems of any kind. You're doing a real disservice feeding into peoples' worst paranoid fears about housing projects. Some have more problems than others. Most are filled with decent people and most are far more stable than reputations suggest. Some housing projects I'd feel uncomfortable walking through But most I wouldn't (and don't).

And so on. We could debate these perspectives forever, but I've learned quite clearly that you can take two people who live in this city for the same exact amount of time and find one who views it as a filthy godforsaken land of misery and poverty while the other sees it as an inspiring place full of passion, beauty, and inspiring and deeply giving people. Eye of the beholder is a real thing here. I won't fault your perspective but I seriously challenge the idea that it's some uniquely accurate perspective.

I, for one, couldn't imagine wanting to live in Tokyo over New York, no matter how pleasant it is (but I wouldn't mind better train service).

mgce··on Ask HN: What do you think of Google (as a company)?
I agree with practically all you're saying, aside from the assertion that this largely applies to Google. I think Google is much better in this regard than many tech companies. But mileage varies, of course. Cheers.
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