matchsetpoint

Thought exercise: China's been open for 40 years. Think of all the inventions from China in the last 40 years. Contrast that with Japan in 1990.

Actually you have proven the OP's point - There have been many knife attacks in China that injured and killed. Some reported, some aren't. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/05/10/china-knife-attack-1...

He most likely isn't aware of the big knife attacks in China because of censorship. But once the party collapses or the censorship breaks down (whichever comes first), Chinese citizens will find lots of bad information out in the open. Things that will make them angry, like the billions of dollars communist party bosses have escaped with to other countries. Or that their water supply is grossly contaminated.

> The Chinese Communist party has ordered foreign-funded universities to install party units and grant decision-making powers to a party official, reversing an earlier promise to guarantee academic freedom as President Xi Jinping strengthens political control over all levels of education.

Sounds like Xi Jinping is really gearing up for possible re-education of college students with communist ideals and more importantly, party loyalty. Also rejection of human rights, educational freedom, and democratic ideas. Will this affect China's already low innovation capability? most likely.

EDIT: also, there have been alot of these desperation moves by the communist party this year. From recently banning Katy Perry from performing in China because she wore a Taiwan flag in 2015, to banning Winnie the Pooh. There must be panic within the party halls regarding the economic decline.

Try using craigslist; there are many many rooms in SV for $1k/month. and many standalone house for $3k/month.

I don't understand this argument. Let's put some numbers up:

Single: income starting at $130k a year. That's 7k/month after tax. Rent a room in SV for $1000 (or Berkeley), and spends $1000/month. That's still $5k/month in savings. If you're senior, that number goes up to $200k a year. That's $11,500. That turns into $9500/month in savings.

Couple: 2 income at combined $260k a year. that's $14k/month after tax. Rents a house in SV or berkeley at $3000/month. Spends $2000/month. That's $9000/month in savings.

etc

This article reads like a self-promotional, self-important fluff piece. Leaving all the congratulatory of her own career aside, she decides on blockchain and decides on LA.....not New York or Singapore or places that actually have alot of financial expertises she can learn.

> going onto to doing bigger and harder thing

Tell yourself the truth; you're afraid of the intense competition in SV. You're going to LA for the weather, and live an easy life. There's no tech in LA except the big tech companies.

I've made friends with many local Chinese workers; I speak Mandarin as well. The (very few) workers that are intelligent and knows about foreign things, usually tends to be very pessimistic about China. Most of the workers that only reads stuff put out by the government, and reads censored mobile contents, are optimistic (logically, since the government approved contents are optimistic). or they're just very afraid to speak their minds.

Ironically that's why China will fall sooner rather than later. It's because most people aren't aware of the downfall until it's too late, because of censorship.

Disagree there. I didn't even mention China's middle income trap, 300% gdp to debt, pollution crisis, demographics crisis, gender crisis, censorship impact on innovation and research, wage inflation impact on factories leaving, etc.

> If you aren’t buying a house, you wouldn’t even notice.

I can't think of anyone I know that did not want to buy a house. It's a prerequisite for getting married. It's a prerequisite for having your kids get married. It's an investment vehicle. It's a store of value. It's all everyone talks about. Besides, rents have been going up everywhere.

> but wealth has been so concentrated that the number of losers will also be

These would-be losers are communist party bosses. I'm sure the peasants will feel the pain, not the bosses

> Xi isn’t really a dictator yet

https://qz.com/1112527/chinas-19th-party-congress-how-xi-jin...

https://www.economist.com/news/china/21590499-chinas-preside...

I agree that there's a ton of progress in conjunction with troubles of growth. However, I think they're past the point of no return with the reform; if they did the reforms when the stock market crashed a few years ago, that could've been different. But now you can see that the communist party is avoiding that pain completely (just like Japan in 1990) and trying to inflate the worries away. However, pegging to dollar and capital outflow is preventing them from doing that successfully (while Japan had the fortune of doing the inflation in the 90s when the world economy was healthy). Along with XiJingPing becoming a dictator, it doesn't bode well at all for China.

I have lived in Shenzhen for many years, traveled to tons of cities in China, and recently am back to silicon valley. From what I can tell on the ground, China is going to be in decline for the next 10-20 years. (I have a good hunch most people that comment favorabily on China here, have never been)

- Myth: China is developed. Truth: Start in Shanghai Huangpu (very rich neighborhood, in a very rich city). Take a subway a few stops in any direction. When you come out, you are surrounded by dilapidated communist blocks and electric bikees. Take another ride a few more stops, you are surrounded in villages that are right out of middle ages (shoddy huts with shared toilets). This is the same for any of the rich city in China. 90% of people in China live in middle ages. 9.99999% of people live in 1950s. 0.00001% of people live very richly.

- Myth: Chinese citizens saves and are rich. Truth: most rich people have left China already. The remaining middle class ($1000/month, many of my Chinese friends) are able to buy into the massive inflated housing with savings from parents. The savings, borrowed money from relatives, credit card debts are now stuck in real estate. My friends all have (fake) gucci, LV, brand name products. They take out loans to afford conspicuous lifestyle. These things are all for show. Some of them are paying all of their salaries into the mortgage payment every month!

- Myth: Chinese economy is doing fine. Truth: Many of my banker friends (expats and locals) know that it's all propped up by debts that will collapse any day now. There's a massive inflation happening everywhere, from food to housing to foreign products. It's harder to harder to get money out of China (I'm helping some with bitcoins). Most of them aren't optimistic.

- Myth: China is leading in green-tech, research, innovation, etc. Truth: tons of copy, chabuduo (good enough), cheating in classes and in business, pollution in Shanghai and Shenzhen is still cancer causing, most smart people want to go abroad.