HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

massinstall

230 karma · joined February 27, 2017

submissionscomments
massinstall··on Is success tied to having rich parents?
You’re subtly implying that this smart person also has the resume to be allowed to be interviewed in the first place. (A common bias of thought by people working in tech, from my experience).

There are people out there whose problem is not that they aren’t smart, but that they don’t have the resume that is aligned with HR filters. Their two biggest and relatively substantial hurdles are: 1) not getting a chance for even a first interview because they are immediately being rejected purely based on their resume, and 2) having a weak position going into salary negotiations.

So, imho “a smart person can always get a well paying job” is a gross oversimplification often made by people who are not in such circumstances.

massinstall··on Ask HN: Good Resources to Learn and Implement a Parser (Compiler)
Going by OP's description, Flex and Bison appear to be well suited for what he/she intends to do. There is a bit of a learning curve, but I think it's well worth it. I have been working with both for a few years now and find them very flexible.

FYI, Bison supports parsers using either LALR(1) (Look-Ahead Left-to-Right with 1 token lookahead) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LALR_parser] or GLR (generalized Left-To-Right) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLR_parser].

O'Reilly's book "flex & bison" by John Levine is a helpful reference. [https://www.amazon.com/flex-bison-Text-Processing-Tools/dp/0...]

massinstall··on The celebs have gone crypto
I had written an email to Mark Cuban back when he wrote a blog post about how he got interested in crypto stuff and NFTs (this was about a year ago). My hope was that I could convince him that, if he really wanted to have a positive impact on the world, he would instead use his reach to help educate people on the devastating ecological effects of crypto mining, exactly because no one else of his size was doing so at the time (and still isn’t, except a few, including Bill Maher - hats off to them).

No real surprise there, he never responded and instead just got more active on the crypto train.

Sadly, if things go as per usual, I expect this post to be downvoted by all the crypto bros and receive replies about how supposedly Bitcoin mining isn’t bad for the environment at all etc. and that this has already been “debunked”, and it’s instead carbon-negative bla bla. So go right ahead and knock yourselves out.

IMHO, we should be trying to avoid making senseless and avoidable mistakes that we blame previous generations for. Celebrities have a particular responsibility here as role models for younger generations. If only the crypto fiends/junkies were able to temporarily stop their profit-induced high and run on logic instead of greed, they might even be able to see this, too. Then they’ll find out that they’re not the good guys, as they like to think they are (for whatever reason).

massinstall··on Do things, tell people (2012)
What about all the talented and hard working people we are not speaking about, merely because they did not have rich and supportive parents? Why is it so popular to act as if this does not make a difference? Economic status is the elephant in the room when it comes to discrimination. It does not feel good to acknowledge this, in particular if one personally is higher up the ladder. Nonetheless it’s the truth.
massinstall··on Neurons learn by predicting future activity
Without being an expert in the field, I would be a bit surprised if this approach was truly novel. Can anyone shed some light on previous work that is similar to the one presented? Thanks in advance.
massinstall··on A simple defer feature for C
I agree and don’t like it either. +1
massinstall··on Academic Ideologues Are Corrupting STEM. The Silent Majority Must Fight Back
Great article, and beautifully written.
massinstall··on Ask HN: Hacker News, but for Finance?
With all due respect, you have no idea what you’re talking about. Your imagination of how this industry works is skewed.

It is amazing how many self-professed experts there are, without any professional or meaningful experience. And the confidence they have… Source: have been working professionally in trading for almost 24 years. Go unleash your attack dogs against me now. :)

P.S.: Since it’s “pretty easy” to predict MSFT for you, let me congratulate you in advance to your exorbitant returns of the near future. Soon, the world will know of you, the next Elon Musk.

massinstall··on Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
Thanks for taking the time to write this down. It would be great if this was more widely understood but sadly it is not and won’t be - instead it will remain “a mystery”.
massinstall··on A quantum walk down Wall Street
There are so many. What in particular are you looking for?
massinstall··on A quantum walk down Wall Street
Sure thing. :)

This interference creates a very different probability distribution for the asset’s final price to that generated by the classical model. The bell curve is replaced by a series of peaks and troughs.

-- No, it's not replaced by "a series of peaks and troughs". This is nonsense. It sounds flashy, as it reminds of the peaks and troughs seen in the double-slit experiment, but it does not accurately describe what could be done to improve modeling with probability distributions. Looking at it from an information-theoretic point of view, peaks and troughs in a probability density distribution would just mean lower entropy, i.e. it would be implicitly assumed to contain (quite a lot) more specific information than another, smoother PDF. So where does this information suddenly come from?? If this is not what the author meant, then it is at least an unfavorable choice of wording to write that "the bell curve is replaced by a series of peaks and troughs". To have mercy on the author, one could maybe assume they meant to speak about a characteristic function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Characteristic_function_(proba...) but that does not seem to be the case.

Furthermore, any probability distribution may be used to model financial instruments, depending on how well it appears to be suited for the purpose of modeling reality. However, if the author already speaks about it so specifically, it is almost misleading not to mention that normal distributions (the bell curve) are in practice not used in the way described, at least not by people who know what they are doing. Consider why Nassim Nicholas Taleb (author of "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan") said that no one in the industry uses Black-Scholes, or ever has. What he was referring to - correctly - is that (in the options space) nobody uses the normal distribution assumption to be correct for the modeling of asset prices per se. It is rather used as a stepping stone with some convenient mathematical properties to describe things analytically.

Broadly speaking, the classical random walk is a better description of how asset prices move. But the quantum walk better explains how investors think about their movements when buying call options [...]

-- Nonsense. There is not even a hint of an explanation why either of the two would be so. It is merely an empty sentence that reads well. Quantum walk explains investor rationale and psychology? And only when buying call options?! This is quite funny actually.

A call option is generally much cheaper than its underlying asset, but gives a big pay-off if the asset’s price jumps.

-- Not always so. It depends on many things. Calls actually consistently disappoint some buyers by moving much less on the way up than what they expected / had hoped for. Having looked at a call's delta as per Black-Scholes, they end up wondering why the call did not move as much as the delta would have predicted. It has to do with spot-vol correlation (and other things), but I won't go down this rabbit hole now... (I would say you can PM me if you are truly interested and want to know more, but it does not seem to be possible on HN.)

The scenarios foremost in the buyer’s mind are not a gentle drift in the price but a large move up (from which they want to benefit) or a big drop (to which they want to limit their exposure).

-- If you are a buyer of a call option you would certainly not hope for a big drop in the underlying (!) and neither would you limit your exposure to such event by buying a call. This is, unless you hedged it either delta-flat or fully, which essentially transforms the call into a synthetic put. Nothing of that sort is mentioned here.

The prices of such options closely match those predicted by an algorithm based on the classical random walk (in part because that is the model most traders accept).

-- No, they do not match a price "predicted" by an algorithm (assuming the author is referring to market prices of the options here). It is the other way around. The assumptions ultimately used to make the algorithm fit the market are what is "predicted" by the market. The "algorithm" referred to here is likely the Black-Scholes formula and it does not predict any market prices. It gives you an idea where the expected value of the option would be if all of its unrealistic assumptions were true (which they aren't). So you have a function with many parameters, one of the most important ones in this context being implied future volatility (average future variance to be super-correct). But you still have to make a choice of what such inputs you want to use for them (the formula will spit out almost anything for the right choice of inputs). In practice, a subset of these parameters differs for each option from strike to strike, so there is no "close" match found to market prices at all.

But a quantum walk, by assigning such options a higher value than the classical model, explains buyers’ preference for them.

-- No. Rubbish. How is this comparison even made. Assigning a higher value, based on what benchmark or standard of comparison? The same input parameters to the pricing model? Hardly, as a quantum model would likely have quite different parameters than a "classical" one. This is just textual fluff.

Such ideas may still sound abstract. But they will soon be physically embodied on trading floors, whether the theory is adopted or not. Quantum computers, which replace the usual zeros and ones with superpositions of the two, are nearing commercial viability and promise faster calculations. Any bank wishing to retain its edge will need to embrace them. Their hardware, meanwhile, makes running quantum-walk models easier than classical ones. One way or another, finance will catch up.

-- Hype paragraph.

massinstall··on A quantum walk down Wall Street
Having worked in the industry for almost 25 years (in options trading), I must comment that the general quality of the article, and the author’s apparent level of understanding of the industry and options are highly questionable.
massinstall··on Climate change is making people think twice about having children
Exactly this!
massinstall··on How does the economy work? A new Fed paper suggests nobody really knows
This. Thank you for a thoughtful comment.
massinstall··on I thought Tesla was a “green” company. Elon, this sucks
Check today's news, Tesla bought $1.5bln in Bitcoin and will accept it as payment from its customers. Bitcoin fans will likely welcome this and laud it as a step forward. Many of them are not informed about the devastating environmental impact of blockchain-based technologies, sadly neither is Elon apparently. Some will simply not care even after having informed themselves. When the next generation begins to ask questions eventually how we could have let this happen, it will be a "big surprise" and we "couldn't have known". Again. The cycle continues...
massinstall··on Algorithms for Decision Making
At first sight an amazing book, thank you!
← PreviousPage 2 of 2