mNovak

Also gas turbines are on backorder until 2029, and new grid connection queues on a similar timescale.

Hence why all the bitcoin miners are cashing in (or trying to) by converting their facilities to datacenters.

I think the right comparison would be a vertically integrated Neocloud like Oracle (insofar as they own some/most of their own datacenters, unlike a CoreWeave).

Minor point, but is there a trademark issue here with Yahoo Scout? (the Yahoo finance AI summaries widget)

Given the $10k price tag for tokens and high rate of bugs (several per minute) they mention, it'd be very interesting to see this experiment run with cheaper models too.

I wonder if we get to a world where a full repo sweep like this is a default Github action after commit.

The wild thing to me, is that they're serving $47B run rate worth of requests on maybe 2-3 GW of compute currently [1], of which only a fraction goes to inference, vs R&D and training. Obviously there have been complaints on token limits and such so they're stretched a bit thin, but nonetheless.

Hard to imagine what a world with 100GW of compute looks like.

[1] https://epochai.substack.com/p/frontier-labs-dont-use-most-a...

^^ This quotes 1.4GW at the end of 2025. Add 0.3GW at Colossus 1, and some initial fraction of 1GW Trainium2 from [2]

[2] https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute

Lately I've been thinking that UI really needs to include the equivalent of a screenshare meeting. Ideally you could click through an example of a software flow Claude's never seen before, with a few quick notes, and have it reliably work.

These narrow integrations with specific software suites seems like a dead end.

I had a similar, really great prof, who would always ask for what the next variable would be, so we'd end up with trees and smiley faces. His point was to not make assumptions (c is always a constant etc), but it made the classes more engaging too.

And, somehow every example ended along the lines of "then you hand this to your boss, kick up your feet and have a nice glass of scotch."

I think the water is difficult to traverse, in that it slows you down when 'swimming'.

It's really interesting how it still feels grounded even though you can fly all around. Having the cursor disappear underneath bridges and behind buildings really helps the illusion.

Do we know the breakdown of revenue from API vs subscriptions for OAI/Anthropic? That seems very relevant, since this entire article seems to be on the premise that users are only willing to pay for a subsidized subscription and would never pay the 'true' token cost.

The internet seems to be saying that 70%+ of Anthropic revenue is per-token metered API, which would largely invalidate the article, but I can't find a solid source.

USER: Give some advice for programming my computer

TALKIE-1930: In programming your computer, set it level, and so that the zero of the scale of inches may coincide with the zero of the scale of feet; slide the index forward until it stops at zero, and then secure it in that position. The computer being thus prepared, set a mark at the termination of each line of figures, and begin to compute at the mark denoting the initial inches.

For me, I think it's referring to a slide rule or mechanical computer.

USER: Now that it's 1930, what's the likelihood of falling into another "great war"?

TALKIE-1930: The probability of a great war in the immediate future is very small. During the last ten years Europe has been comparatively free from great conflicts, and there seems to be no reason why the present peace should be broken. The causes which in former times led to war no longer operate. Nations are no longer impelled to fight because they hate each other. On the contrary, they have learned to understand and respect each other, and personal intercourse has done much to remove ancient prejudices. Commercial rivalry no longer provokes hostilities. The markets of the world are open to all, and each can pursue its own line of industry without let or hindrance from its neighbours. Religious antipathies have lost their force, and, if a conflict should arise, it will not be on a question of creed. The spirit of nationalism, which was so potent a cause of war in the nineteenth century, has spent itself, and France and Germany, Italy and Spain, are no longer eager to fly at each other's throats.

-------

Ah, if only

This feels similar to when Deepseek first debuted with claims of ultra-low cost training, and all the pundits exclaimed that Nvidia was finished, the bubble had burst, etc.

He does that in the write-up, though it's unclear from the photos if he actually soldered it or just twisted up pairs. The discussion of part of the wire melting also raises an eyebrow.. no idea about the authors hardware experience, but I've seen software guys use piddly 24 AWG on a multi-amp circuit

I'm excited for the big jump in ARC-AGI scores from recent models, but no one should think for a second this is some leap in "general intelligence".

I joke to myself that the G in ARC-AGI is "graphical". I think what's held back models on ARC-AGI is their terrible spatial reasoning, and I'm guessing that's what the recent models have cracked.

Looking forward to ARC-AGI 3, which focuses on trial and error and exploring a set of constraints via games.

Large murals on, for example, commercial buildings or residences are typically commissioned. These are big enough to require scaffolding/lifts and take multiple days to paint; with some exceptions (vacant property) it'd be hard to pull that off without the owner calling the cops. The building owner is paying them for the mural, or in some cases there's city grants or arts council projects.

Lots of muralists document the art/business on youtube! Two I like: Kiptoe and SmoeNova

Very cool! A couple notes from my first few sols:

- I had a really hard time building a greenhouse, because I hadn't realized it'd be bigger than 1 square like all the previous buildings, and it just wouldn't build despite having materials etc. Maybe a footprint outline while hovering a build option?

- There were a lot of instructions from Dr. Kimura right off the bat. Hard for me to remember all that, and I was hoping talking to the doc again would replay those hints.

- My population seems to be stuck at 2.. I have landing pads and habitats and plenty of food etc, but don't really know what I should be doing next.

- that menus continue beyond the first couple lines was not obvious to me. Possibly because I'm on laptop, so the existing hint was way far to the right

Maybe to allow sub-vocalized commands when wearing airpods, for example? I think this was a theme in the later Ender's Game series books.

I'm going to call BS on that chart of "AI-driven chip design". What "AI" tools has Cadence been providing since 2021 that are reaching 40-50% of "chip design" (what does that even mean?). Is AI here just any old algorithmic auto-router? Or a fuzzy search of the IP library?

So when can an AI call up the cable company and negotiate a discount? Asking for a friend.

But seriously, other tasks I've encountered recently that I wish I could delegate to an AI:

- Posting my junk to Craigslist, determining a fair price, negotiating a buyer (pickup only!)

- Scheduling showings to find an apartment, wherein the listing agents are spread over multiple platforms, proprietary websites, or phone contacts

- Job applications -- not forging a resume, but compiling candidate positions with reasoning, and the tedious part were you have to re-enter your whole resume into their proprietary application pipeline app

What strikes me as basic similarities across these types of things, is that they are essentially data-entry jobs which interact with third-party interfaces, with CRM-like follow up requirements, and require "good judgement" (reading reviews, identifying scams, etc).

Bloat the apps, push users into a high tier iPhone, some % of users settle for a more affordable Pixel. Not that Android apps are that much better.

I agree that the worker becoming more productive due to some capital equipment generally won't see any benefit from doing so (unless it requires special skills to operate). But I think the argument is that the end consumer will eventually benefit from the increased productivity.

In your example, yes, the factory owner can take their $100/hr of profit. But among the various factories, some owner might take $25 of that profit and instead undercut their competition to grow their order book. Other factories respond in kind, and the consumer is getting cheaper products.

Doesn't OpenRouter prove that inference is profitable? Why would random third parties subsidize the service for other random people online? Unless you're saying that only large frontier models are unprofitable, which I still don't think is the case but is harder to prove.

While this example is explicitly asking for a port (thus a copy), I also find in general that LLM's default behavior is to spit out new code from their vast pre-trained encyclopedia, vs adding an import to some library that already serves that purpose.

I'm curious if this will implicitly drive a shift in the usage of packages / libraries broadly, and if others think this is a good or bad thing. Maybe it cuts down the surface of upstream supply-chain attacks?

>> Seeing an image of their brain with some colors overlayed ... is highly convincing

Indeed, there's been quite a few studies [1] that find just including any old image of a brain with stuff highlighted will cause a paper to be perceived as more scientifically credible.

[1] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17803985/

I know it's annoying now to nitpick over what's AI generated, but I'm noticing their robot mascot has two different incorrect American flags on its sweater..

As an engineer, I use Matlab (or rather, Octave the free equivalent) all the time. It's really great for numerical computing and plotting. Most things 'just work', there's a sizeable collection of packages, and I personally like how flexible the function inputs are.

Biggest drawback though is that it's over-optimized for matrix math, that it forces you to think about everything as matrices, even if that's not how your data naturally lies. The first thing they teach about performant Matlab code is that simple for-loops will tank performance. And you feel it pretty quickly, I saw a case once of some image processing, with a 1000x speedup from Matlab-optimized syntax.

Other things issues I've run into are string handling (painful), and generally OOP is unnatural. Would love to see something with the convenient math syntax of Matlab, but with broader ease of use of something like JS.

I literally had a friend mail us a crate of TP in our time of need. Thankfully they had access to industrial suppliers.

Though you're right that the prices didn't skyrocket, as that would have been considered price gouging during an emergency, which would have been PR suicide at a minimum if not actually illegal.

Unfortunately there's too much distraction regarding the AI side of the discussion, to actually look at the generation tech itself.

For all their discussion of high temperature operation, it seems the only advantage at the end of the day is to eliminate water consumption in cooling. I question if that's really so valuable?

I'm guessing it's not just the overhead lines, but you need the actual power plants somewhere.

I do, just for fun. It's become sort of a hobby, learning more depth/detail behind the current AI arms race. It certainly cuts through the shallow takes that get thrown around constantly.