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lotsofpulp

36,775 karma · joined April 26, 2012

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lotsofpulp··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
>Yes? That doesn't mean they can't spend billions on R&D

How can business leaders and shareholders spend money on long term R&D and still be accused of focusing on the short term and next quarter? If they were focusing on making the next few quarters look good, they would reduce expenses, which include R&D, and make profits higher for the next few quarters.

>If Apple didn't sell iPods like hotcakes, they wouldn't be able to R&D the iPhone. That doesn't mean nobody at Apple had long-term vision, quite the opposite.

I can’t parse these statements. Are you or are you not claiming businesses like Apple and Micron shareholders are focused on the short term?

>If I can sell my things at a higher volume for longer vs higher price and less volume now, I'll go with the first, but not shareholders focused on quarterly numbers.

What if a business is maxed out on production capacity? What if a business can sell things for a higher price now, and sell things at a lower price later?

lotsofpulp··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/marriage_rate_2018/marr...

https://usafacts.org/articles/state-relationships-marriages-...

Marriage rate declines started in the 1980s, maybe even before.

Seems to line up with women gaining financial independence, and no-fault divorce.

Related, divorce rates have declined since the 1970s:

https://ifstudies.org/blog/divorce-in-decline-about-40-of-to...

Seems like there were a lot of partnerships of necessity before, and once that necessity goes away, so does the incentive to partner up.

lotsofpulp··on Singapore govt dating app uses Gale-Shapley stable marriage algorithm
All of those cultures involve restricting women's rights.
lotsofpulp··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
The crime against humanity of commenting on the supply and demand curve movements of a product so complicated and with such a long production lead-time that a handful of nations can even produce it.
lotsofpulp··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
So if capitalism resulted in higher prices that is causing consternation among small-scale buyers, what -ism is responsible for the investment in factories that increased supply of components that resulted in lower priced electronics for the past few decades?

Was that also capital looking for returns?

lotsofpulp··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
Is your claim that businesses that have to spend billions or tens of billions of dollars and years to bring facilities online to make the products they sell are owned (and influenced) by shareholders focused on quarterly numbers?

This “quarterly, short term” reddit-ism or internet-ism is baffling since the businesses that have earned the most money for shareholders (to the tune of trillions of dollars, eclipsing all other businesses), all have leadership making very expensive, very long term bets.

lotsofpulp··on AI borrowers face tough sell in risky corners of US credit market
The US has long offered R&D tax credits, and the US has outputted lots of new products due to R&D during that timeframe seems like a positive correlation to me (not that it is proof of causation).
lotsofpulp··on Micron CEO Says Memory Supply Will Be Much Tighter in 2027 and 2028 Than in 2026
I also like to keep prices high for as long as possible for the things I sell. I bet most people I ask would answer the same.
lotsofpulp··on AI borrowers face tough sell in risky corners of US credit market
Maybe, but I am hesitant to accept the findings of the studies in France given the enormous success of US R&D over the previous few decades, including by large businesses.
lotsofpulp··on AI borrowers face tough sell in risky corners of US credit market
It’s difficult to define “research” and “experimentation”, but the spending seems to accomplish the goal of the tax credit:

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL31181

>The R&E credit is intended to encourage companies to invest more in basic and applied research and some stages of development than they would if there were no such credit. The credit reduces the after-tax cost of qualified research, which in turn lowers the user cost of capital for this purpose. In theory, a reduction in the user cost of capital would increase the number of R&D investments a company could profitably undertake.

>In addition, the returns on R&D investment can spill over to consumers and other firms through access to new or improved goods and services at prices below the prices they would be willing to pay for these goods and services.4 Empirical evidence suggests that R&D spillovers are "most powerful and diffuse most rapidly at the local and national levels.

lotsofpulp··on 500k facial scans at UK stations yield no arrests, 1 false positive
I am not understanding the significance of the panopticon claim. It's common knowledge that camera price and bandwidth and digital storage prices have gone down significantly over the years, and quality has gone up.

That the government has used them to prosecute a man who assassinated someone or a large group of traitors does not seem to be an indictment of the capabilities.

An example of the government combing through records to pile on trivial charges to throw at a peaceful protestor or otherwise "over" charge them to create a chilling effect seems more apt for a discussion about the dangers of a panopticon.

lotsofpulp··on 500k facial scans at UK stations yield no arrests, 1 false positive
Seems strange to use prosecuting a group of people attacking the democratic process, the basis of the country and a clearly treasonous act, as an example of cameras being used to “over” prosecute to intimidate the public.

Why should it matter if you are a 63yo grandmom or pastor?

lotsofpulp··on MongoDB CEO resigns "effective immediately" to join Meta, stock drops 20%
How much closer can you get to “actual value” than a long standing publicly trades business with deep liquidity?
lotsofpulp··on Unsealed Briefs in Authors’ Case v. Microsoft/OpenAI
>Voters cave too easily to the "lesser of two evils" thinking

This is just a mathematical fact of first past the post elections.

I also don’t buy the captured media claim. Broadband cellular internet has allowed everyone instant access to basically all available information. If people choose to consume nonsense, that is an inherent problem with the people. Good information is literally a click or tap away, but people prefer the tribal stuff.

lotsofpulp··on Unsealed Briefs in Authors’ Case v. Microsoft/OpenAI
Assuming you are referring to the USA, are you claiming people have not been able to campaign for political positions and vote for their candidates for decades? Because that is the definition of "democratic elections" (except for the electoral college nonsense in the US and 2000 presidential elections).

Otherwise, your complaint is more about voters either being too stupid, too disinterested, or not having enough time participate in the democracy. Which is a problem, but real life comes with constraints and it isn't really easy to solve all of these by snapping one's fingers.

Claiming that there has been widespread election fraud when elections have been, by and large, free and fair, is anti democratic. Obviously, there have been issues with disenfranchising certain people's votes, making it harder for them, blah blah, but it had been trending better and better and access to information had been getting better and better.

It also might just be possible that people are too tribal and simply can't comprehend all the complexities of the world to make good voting decisions.

lotsofpulp··on ASML says it sold 'absolutely nothing' in Europe in 2026
Which jurisdiction? I highly doubt your effective tax rate is anywhere close to that. Especially considering the myriad deductions and exemptions one should be able to take with a high income (401k, Roth IRA, HSA, 529, etc).
lotsofpulp··on We're gonna need a lot more mathematicians
>The medical field as a whole isn’t generally interested in understanding how medication, only in empirical measuring and qualify the effects.

This is nonsense. Most, if not all professionals are interested in mechanism of action, but without Ms Frizzle, it is extremely difficult and expensive (time and money wise) to figure that out. So while the labs run the experiments with the very limited funding they have, we make do with using the second best thing we have, which are statistics.

lotsofpulp··on Allow babywearing carriers on planes
I meant that I do not want to deal with taking a kid in and out of car seats, or traveling with car seats, or taking them in and out of cars, for more years of my life.
lotsofpulp··on U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk
No, it didn't. If you didn't want to buy health insurance, you just had to pay a couple extra thousand in federal income tax:

https://landline.media/affordable-care-act-tax-penalties-end...

>The penalty for not having an ACA-compliant plan or forgoing coverage in 2018 is the greater of $695 per adult and $347.50 per child for a maximum of $2,085 or 2.5 percent of adjusted household income. The percentage penalty is capped at an amount equal to the national average premium for a bronze plan, the minimum coverage available by law

lotsofpulp··on U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk
You would have about the same or less. Maybe UNH gets you a couple extra percentage points per year, but that's because they have an enormous healthcare provider business instead of just being an insurer. But it's still nowhere near a positive risk adjusted return when comparing to a relatively risk-less investment in SP500.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/

Since Jan 1, 2010, 18% for UNH, 15% for MOH/CNC, 14% for CI/ELV/HUM/SP500, 8.5% for CVS.

Also, these businesses are competing to sell a completely fungible commodity good with tons of non profits like Kaiser Permanente, HCSC, Cambia, Independence Blue Cross, and many others. It makes no sense to expect those businesses to be able to earn any decent profit margin when their competition only needs 0%.

lotsofpulp··on Allow babywearing carriers on planes
Sometimes, I wonder what the societal costs of the ever increasing car seat requirements are.

I wouldn't want a third kid just because I don't want to deal with carseats anymore.

lotsofpulp··on U.S. appeals court upholds designation of Anthropic as supply chain risk
Then why do the 7 publicly listed health insurers have shitty shareholder returns?

If their profits are so good, their shares would be worth owning.

Could it be because their profit margins are actually terrible (3% if lucky), and they have to get the price of their product approved by 50 different state government employees, and the federal government constantly changes their customer’s subsidies making revenue and expenses extremely volatile and difficult to forecast?

lotsofpulp··on Oracle on the hook to pay data centre investors even if site has no electricity
Most developed countries are ponzi schemes, since they all have old age benefits where new people pay old people.
lotsofpulp··on Oracle on the hook to pay data centre investors even if site has no electricity
Oracle failing will be a blessing for anyone not working at Oracle.
lotsofpulp··on Transit rewards
The roads and houses are constructed with such separation and space that it is literally impossible without eminent domain of basically every lot. It’s simply not a possibility to turn the suburbs with huge stroads and subdivisions into mixed use high density living.
lotsofpulp··on Samsung accidentally freezes its smart fridges with a software update
I’ve had 3 LG french door fridges for 5 to 10 years and none have had any issues, and they cost half or a third as much as Bosch and Fisher Paykel.

I feel like I save a lot more money just buying whatever decent rated LG stuff on Costco and replacing it whenever it breaks (hasn’t happened yet).

lotsofpulp··on The darker side of being a doctor
Do you have a plan on preventing the effects of aging, such as mutations in DNA and wear and tear?
lotsofpulp··on The darker side of being a doctor
I assumed the linked article was written by a non American, given the use of kilometers and anecdote of a Brisbane doctor committing suicide.

Although the whole website has 1 post and there’s a prominent advertising link to some doctor book that then links to herbal stuff, so not sure if the whole thing is fake to advertise books.

lotsofpulp··on The darker side of being a doctor
>You might ask, why can’t you work less? It’s not as easy as that. If I decide to work less, who is going to cover the hospital? If the hospital aren’t employing other doctors, we can’t allow patients to go uncovered. I accept the fact that I have a duty of care to be on call.

Yes, you can allow patients to go uncovered. This hero mentality is what leads the bosses to not properly staff and the politicians to not properly fund in the first place.

It is not an individual’s responsibility to correct a societal failure by hurting themselves.

lotsofpulp··on Transit rewards
And low density suburbs in America are never going to get torn up and re-platted so autonomous vehicles is the only way to improve safety.
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