lorepieri

PS: I would be happy to connect, you can find my socials in my bio.

Science, Tech and Fundamental questions. Started in 2021, so far I published mainly around AI and Robotics.

In the space of all simulations, we are very likely to be pretty close to the simpler possible simulation inside the reference class, but there is no way of probing this. What we can do is make comparison with more complex versions of our current reality. If you think that we are not that simple, then you should believe that we are not in a simulation after all.

True, the universe may have been started 1 second ago, but among all the 1-second simulations some are simpler than other nevertheless. For instance a 1-second simulation in which we have colonised the entire milky way is far more complex than our current experience.

Now, since by a counting argument we are more likely to be in a simple simulation, by looking at "optional" complexity around us we can establish if we are in a simulation. Reaching 5 sigma of confidence should be enough, so if we find out that the universe could have been 10 million times easier than what we experience, then we can be pretty confident that we are not sims (I assumed a linear scaling of the simplicity assumption here).

Now the tricky question is, which complexity is "optional"? I would argue open space which we would probe if we do interstellar travel, but maybe there are better ways to find optional complexity.

Also, if in the future we start simulating universes, all these constraints will apply to us and all the simulations we do.