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long_time_gone

510 karma · joined June 17, 2021

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long_time_gone··on Inflation propagates unevenly
That’s a good idea. I think it still misses a needed link between productivity increases and increases to the lowest wages. Maybe loosely tying minimum wage to productivity?
long_time_gone··on College town
> Why have we never had a president who went to a state school?

We literally have one right now.

long_time_gone··on Inflation propagates unevenly
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today (March 3, 2022), as output increased 9.1 percent and hours worked increased 2.4 percent.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf

long_time_gone··on Ask HN: Any weird tips for weight loss?
I've had the same experience. When I start a weight-lifting regimen, my appetite grows like crazy, and I start bulking up immediately (good and bad weight).
long_time_gone··on Ask HN: Any weird tips for weight loss?
Might those same cultural underpinnings impact their adoption and usage of on-demand delivery?
long_time_gone··on China's state media buys Meta ads pushing Russia's line on war
> The world's dependence on Chinese manufacturing is like Europe's dependence on Russian gas, times ten.

This assumes that we won't make moves to mitigate this dependence in response to Russia's invasion. The US Innovation and Competition Act [1] likely has a much higher chance of passing today than it did prior to Russia's invasion. It calls for $250 billion investment in high tech manufacturing [2]. It has passed the Senate and is currently waiting in the House. I wouldn't be surprised to see the bill grow in scope.

[1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/126...

[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-passes-bipa...

long_time_gone··on The Coca-Cola Company Suspends Its Business in Russia
> It doesn't say anything good for America that so many of its big companies fall into that category.

The big companies of America fall into every category, not just the ones you cherry-picked. You could have easily mentioned GE, Intel, MSFT, Apple, Target, Lowe's, Home Depot, Ford, GM, Kroger, Walgreens, Deere, Oracle, Caterpillar, and a bunch of other as-big companies. Those companies each have higher revenues than Coca-Cola, Instagram, or Netflix.

long_time_gone··on Solar Power/Batteries are 60% of planned new U.S. electric generation capacity
> There is no equivalent of this in this new-fangled electric world. Until batteries become smaller, light and a hell of a lot cheaper, I'll be sitting on the sidelines.

The entire premise of the discussion is a world where we have transitioned the economy completely to EVs. I think it's safe to assume that, in this new energy world, batteries would be smaller, lighter, and cheaper. This has been the observed trend since 1991 [1].

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline

long_time_gone··on Solar Power/Batteries are 60% of planned new U.S. electric generation capacity
I found it most interesting that "Other Renewables" (i.e. solar and wind) went from ~5% to ~15% in just 10 years. If we can triple capacity again in the next 10 years, we could completely eliminate coal (assuming storage can solve load issues).
long_time_gone··on Solar Power/Batteries are 60% of planned new U.S. electric generation capacity
> If we all move to EVs, the demand for electricity will go up (a lot!) But I don't see how we're planning to meet such demand with our current power grid.

I don't think anyone has proposed more EVs without an improved grid. In fact, this January, the DOE announced a "New Initiative From President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law To Modernize National Grid" [1]

> Being able to store fuel in 5 gallon increments in a cheap container has no equivalent in the EV world.

Batteries? I have multiple for my son's Peg Perego John Deere 12v [2]. My vacuum also has multiple batteries that I swap.

[1] https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-launches-new-initiative-...

[2] https://www.walmart.com/ip/Peg-Perego-John-Deere-Gator-XUV-1...

long_time_gone··on Latvia wants permanent U.S. troops, foreign minister tells Blinken
I agree completely. I think I am making more of a point about the "tail wagging the dog" in the US military strategy you mention.

We have created economic dependencies on our vast military spending. At a fundamental level, the $1 trillion spent on defense ends up in the hands of US service members and defense contractors. They spend that money back in the US economy.

When viewed from that (cynical?) perspective, it isn't surprising that the military's spending and scope grow year after year.

long_time_gone··on Latvia wants permanent U.S. troops, foreign minister tells Blinken
That US military spending has never fallen below 3% of GDP. The two times it got close, we jumped right back towards 4%.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locat...

long_time_gone··on Latvia wants permanent U.S. troops, foreign minister tells Blinken
> Consider, right now the US military budget is bound to balloon some more because of this war, without us doing any fighting. Military Keynesianism --- chest puffing handshake.

We are sending actual weapons and machinery, which need to be replaced by new weapons off the factory line. One Javelin missile costs $175k.

"In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania, unloading them from giant military cargo planes so they can make the trip by land to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and other major cities."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/us/politics/us-ukraine-we...

long_time_gone··on Latvia wants permanent U.S. troops, foreign minister tells Blinken
> If there is a relatively big EU military, we in the US have a chance of reforming and shrinking our monster.

Our military's size and capabilities seem to be more a function of job-creation, rather than actual military need.

long_time_gone··on Russia will stop 'in a moment' if Ukraine meets terms – Kremlin
> Nation states don't do "precedents" when it comes to helping each other out.

NATO is a nation state alliance built on mutual defense and strengthened by precedent. The precedent of defending allies is built into the NATO agreement.

> For democracies this timeline is short. For dictatorships and monarchies this timeline tends to be a little longer because nobody wants to leave a giant mess for their kid.

Great point on the different timelines, I have to disagree on the reason. Dictators/monarchies have a longer timeline because they tend to rule for much longer than leaders in democracies. By definition, democracies involve turning over the ideals and ideas of leadership every few years. Do you believe Putin is worried about leaving things to the daughters that he never mentions?

long_time_gone··on Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)
When did the governments stop printing tons of money?
long_time_gone··on Ask HN: Should I give up and get a job?
I'm not sure what you mean, the success stories that you called biased are also true. Your point wasn't about "truth", it was about being representative of the normal outcome. This story of people getting $10 million working at Google isn't a normal outcome, just like selling your startup for $100 million isn't a normal outcome.
long_time_gone··on RT turns to Peter Thiel's Rumble after Big Tech companies block the network
> By allowing our governments to decide what's a lie / propaganda that's not allowed to be published

The headline "RT turns to Peter Thiel's Rumble after Big Tech companies block the network" tells us that private companies blocked the network, not the government.

long_time_gone··on Ask HN: Should I give up and get a job?
> HN is filled with bias for the success stories

This is true.

> He gave up a job at Google and beats himself up every day for literally giving up millions, probably well over $10M had he just stayed.

This is also a biased success story. Very few people will experience Google-like returns.

long_time_gone··on Statement from Roman Abramovich
It is interesting in the sense that it fails completely to mention the multiple countries Russia has invaded over the past 25 years. It treats NATO's actions as happening completely in a bubble, ignoring Putin's own provocations. It also assumes the countries that have joined NATO aren't deciding to join, but instead being consumed by NATO.
long_time_gone··on An insane baseball proposal: Dual league restructuring
> Leicester City

This is the exception that proves the rule. The fact that winning the EPL was such a monumental upset and that you have to go back 5 years to find it, kind of proves the entire point. Them falling back to 12th place is further evidence of the difficulty of maintaining success as a small-market in European soccer. Compare to the sustained small-market successes in US sports like Oakland A's or Tampa bay Rays in the MLB, Green Bay and Pittsburgh in the NFL, the Memphis Grizzlies or San Antonio Spurs in the NBA.

> And they won the EPL trophy straight out of League One the year they were promoted.

This is false, they finished 14th in EPL for the 2014-15 season. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_in_English_foo...

long_time_gone··on An insane baseball proposal: Dual league restructuring
>but as is often the problem in North American sports, it hurts small market teams.

In the case of baseball, the negotiations are being held up by the small-market owners because the existing system is so beneficial to them. There is a de-facto salary cap through the Competitive Balance Tax, which directs money straight from the richest to the poorest teams. Meanwhile, there is no guarantee that the poor teams spend that money on actually improving their team.

I don't see any non-North American system where small-market teams perform this well. In the NFL, small-market Cincinnati was just in the Super Bowl because of a draft process that rewards poor performance.

long_time_gone··on Finland or Sweden joining NATO would spark Russian response, Russia warns
Ukraine was the buffer zone and Putin invaded them. Now he has NATO at his doorstep in Poland.
long_time_gone··on Missouri governor’s office responsible for teacher data leak
> the implicit point was obviously partisan

No, it was not. Partisan would be asking if they were going to switch to a specific different party. I asked if they re-thought their affiliation.

> As for Russian propaganda, that isn't remotely representative of the forum.

I never claimed it was, just that it has increased the past two weeks without much moderation.

> the bias that causes internet users to feel that other commenters are foreign agents, astroturfers, spies, shills, bots, etc.

Another thing I never claimed.

All of these assumptions sound like they may be an example of the Illusion of Asymmetric Insight (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusion_of_asymmetric_insight). Is that how this works?

long_time_gone··on Missouri governor’s office responsible for teacher data leak
> What does it mean to be independent then? Is it more like undecided?

I'm sure it means different things to different people. For me, it means that I don't follow any party's platform in lockstep. I try to judge each candidate and policy based on merits, not team affiliation and have voted for multiple parties over the years (Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, Green).

long_time_gone··on Missouri governor’s office responsible for teacher data leak
My comment was very careful to not include partisanship or judgement. It was a question on if events caused them to "re-think" their affiliation. Flagging it, while allowing commenters to spew Russian propaganda for the past 2 weeks doesn't seem to be "what HN is for".
long_time_gone··on US accuses financial website of spreading Russian propaganda
Even if you believe this response, recent actions (the Russian invasion happening) prove their analysis was completely off the mark. Their site now has a bunch of articles covering the same invasion they assured us would never happen.
long_time_gone··on Los Angeles is spending up to $837k to house a single homeless person
You can drill-down to a specific SRO building to find a unique story, but the overwhelming trend from 1960-2010 was to eliminate SRO because of health and safety concerns.

> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_room_occupancy

long_time_gone··on Los Angeles is spending up to $837k to house a single homeless person
More like, we'd be better off if voters didn't demand short-term actions with negative long-term effects.
long_time_gone··on US accuses financial website of spreading Russian propaganda
Has any of the new information changed your mind on this issue? It seems most of western intelligence was correct on Putin's actions and intentions.
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