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llamaimperative

17,990 karma · joined March 9, 2013

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llamaimperative··on Global coffee trade grinding to a halt, hit hard by brutal price hikes
Eh, given that everyone pays income tax (largest portion by a mile) I think most people are aware of what drag that adds onto the economy.

Most people have no clue how much a storefront pays in rent.

llamaimperative··on Global coffee trade grinding to a halt, hit hard by brutal price hikes
Permitting etc. is 0.5% to 2% of development costs, which is itself a small subset of what rent pays for, and only for the first 5-10 years.

This number would be $0 for most cups of coffee (made in paid-for buildings) and <$0.02 for pretty much all the remaining ones, I think?

Rent on the other hand is 15%+ for every cup of coffee in perpetuity (not counting second-order question of what % of wages go directly into residential rent).

llamaimperative··on Global coffee trade grinding to a halt, hit hard by brutal price hikes
That is all baked into rent, including the developer's profit margins
llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
You actually think there’s no difference between Department of Homeland Security’s federal agents and a local municipal (or sometimes even campus) police force arresting someone?

Arresting someone for a crime is obviously not a problem, and generally protestors commit all sorts of minor nuisance civil violations for which they get arrested, booked, and released — all of which must be done without regard to the content of the speech being exercised during the violation. Deploying federal officers to go hunt down specific individuals and then disappearing them across state lines and modifying their immigration status without due process is absolutely unequivocally in a totally different league.

Trump has specifically said he’s going after people for the content of their speech. This is illegal and is totally different from what happened under Biden.

llamaimperative··on Global coffee trade grinding to a halt, hit hard by brutal price hikes
That’s almost entirely for rent.

IMO if we actually wanted to overhaul our economy, we could do it by just having POS’s print the portion of each bill that goes into rent.

Then the culprit of COL increases would be quite clear.

Especially given that wages are themselves also driven up primarily by rent.

llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
Likewise, having a standing army is dangerous.

How much airtime do we want to give that topic on this here thread about current distortion of our democracy through totally distinct mechanisms?

Not sure who you're arguing against on the propriety or danger of NSA's capability, but it ain't me.

llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
“It’s only a matter of time” -> not relevant to this conversation about what’s happening right now then, right?

Then we’re in agreement.

llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
I’m not advocating for it, so don’t strawman me.

I’m saying it has approximately nothing to do with the actual issues we face today.

I.e. it’s just as relevant for me to say “this is why you don’t give governments firearms! An authoritarian one will turn around and shoot its own people!”

Like yeah, sure it seems likely. Relevant to today? Would today’s conditions have been averted if we had never armed the government? No.

Is it dangerous for the government to collect everything on the internet? Yes! Is there any evidence that capability and “habit” is actually contributing to the chilling effects described in the article? Nope!

As seen in GP’s comment, tech world’s fixation on high-tech super surveillance distracts from the how authoritarian regimes actually tend to exert control over their population. Like, in reality versus in science fiction (again, not that surveillance is good or neutral on this topic, but that it is not at all necessary).

llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
To add some nuance about the US’s 1st Amendment: it is not just speech against the government that is protected. It is that all speech is protected from the government.

The government also is not allowed to imprison you or threaten you for speech about another private party, for example.

llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
> People forget what free speech really is though. The most important point is a contract with the government: that they hold a monopoly on the ability to censor and control speech. That any other group who threatens anyone for their speech must be dealth with using even hand of the force of law by the government/legal regime

WHAT?

This is literally the EXACT OPPOSITE of free speech, at least as it is defined in America. The 1st Amendment SPECIFICALLY AND SOLELY prevents the government from putting its thumb on the scales.

Private parties are necessarily allowed to respond to speech with whatever other speech they wish to use, including utilizing their rights to free association (or non-association) in response to what you say.

This is absolutely 100% backwards. I highly suggest reading some basic American civics material or something.

llamaimperative··on Real Chilling Effects
None of this is necessary to have an authoritarian government. Just some lawsuits and government inquiries.

Inversely you can also have a government that collects everything and doesn’t wield it this way.

The two issues are not actually that intertwined.

llamaimperative··on US Ends Support For Ukrainian F-16s
What? You think these people are literally incapable of learning to work on a solar farm instead of a coal mine? Why?
llamaimperative··on US Ends Support For Ukrainian F-16s
The majority of voting Americans live in cities and have jobs, so I don't think that's right.
llamaimperative··on US Ends Support For Ukrainian F-16s
We’re talking about the “fuck your feelings” crowd right?
llamaimperative··on Where are all the self-directed learners?
Why can’t you proactively source your own candidates instead of thinking they’ll come to you? Especially for self-directed learners/more independent people?
llamaimperative··on CDC to study vaccines and autism despite research showing no connection
This is the President who redirected a hurricane with a Sharpie. We shouldn't assume they're above just making shit up.
llamaimperative··on Natural occurring molecule rivals Ozempic in weight loss, sidesteps side effects
Ah ah, I see what your original comment meant now! I parsed that completely differently :)

Yes you’re right.

llamaimperative··on Natural occurring molecule rivals Ozempic in weight loss, sidesteps side effects
And Novo (like many others) is already working on next-generation GLPs that’ll have new patent protection before Ozempic’s ends.
llamaimperative··on Natural occurring molecule rivals Ozempic in weight loss, sidesteps side effects
GLP-1 is a class of drugs (or molecules). The first known GLP-1 was pretty much just a synthesized version of a naturally occurring compound from the Gila Monster’s venom.

Semaglutide is like a 2nd generation GLP-1 and there are 3rd generation ones in development right now

llamaimperative··on The Big Government Contracts Doge Hasn't Touched
The perfect plan: We're going to create rampant patronage to destroy the patronage system that we have not been able to produce any evidence of!
llamaimperative··on The Big Government Contracts Doge Hasn't Touched
Medicare fraud is conservatively in the $16 billion+ per year range[1] and a lot of it is easily detectable with data the government already has.

Two things about this type of fraud though:

1. Detection would require making USG a better place to work for technically savvy people, with things like "budgets" and "not getting publicly humiliated by the world's richest man"

2. It's committed by men in suits, so enforcement would require going after the types of people that in reality, Trump & co prefer to pardon... for committing exactly this type of fraud [2]...

So, cutting life-saving aid, cancer research, and healthcare benefits it is!

[1]: https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/how-health-insurers-ra...

[2]: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/health-care-f...

llamaimperative··on The Demoralization is just Beginning
A lot of people think we didn’t have fractional reserve banking when we had the gold standard. Alas: we did.
llamaimperative··on Best Buy and Target CEOs say prices are about to go up because of tariffs
Nothing says “I need to relocate my supply chain” like 24 hours of tariffs
llamaimperative··on U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine
Nobody being open about how deterrence works? Probably because no one thought it needed to be explained.
llamaimperative··on Treasury Announces Suspension of Enforcement of Corporate Transparency Act
Financial enforcement is empirically one of our most effective tools to combat organized crime.

> We don't do this because of principles, because of the risk of enabling other crimes, and because it would be a bad tradeoff

Really the only reason we don't do this is because of the Constitution. The Constitution could prevent us from capturing beneficial ownership data from corporations, but indeed it does not. Of course one can make this argument in front of SCOTUS (and perhaps will some day) but there's a reason you're not making that argument now, which is that it's a bit silly on its face.

Corporations are fundamentally legal objects of the state, which is why they're registered at all. You can operate whatever business you want without incorporating (and without the legal affordances thereof) and then you don't need to disclose any information to anyone.

llamaimperative··on Treasury Announces Suspension of Enforcement of Corporate Transparency Act
Your argument is “if cartels are magically not a problem, then they’re not a problem and then this is useless?”

I don’t think I understand your comment.

llamaimperative··on Math That Matters: The Case for Probability over Polynomials
No it doesn’t. Common meme around here but the hard sciences are also rife with unreproducible studies. It’s an incentives problem.
llamaimperative··on NIH.gov DNS servers down, making PubMed, BLAST, etc. unreachable
"IMO" means "in my opinion." You made a statement as a fact, which is why I asked for evidence. Lol.

Agreed the "both sides bad" messaging was a huge factor here. But that's exactly why we should talk about these fuckups as questions of competence. They are unambiguous evidence of a difference in both sides' ability to actually operate a government!

llamaimperative··on NIH.gov DNS servers down, making PubMed, BLAST, etc. unreachable
And when these websites are back up? What then?
llamaimperative··on NIH.gov DNS servers down, making PubMed, BLAST, etc. unreachable [fixed]
I didn’t say there isn’t malice.
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