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layoric

1,144 karma · joined August 15, 2014

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/layoric; my proof: https://keybase.io/layoric/sigs/GHKQrD_kG1UGFfKXjhWtzYGjkpSh5Qu4OxeapOiK7os ]

mastodon: https://reidodon.net/@layoric linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/layoric/

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layoric··on S3 Is the Future, S3 Is the Past
This is absolutely the case for nearly all of AWS products. Some new services have filled lower price gaps, but I previously looked at EC2 and other service prices in the past and late 2016 is where it all seemed to stop getting price drops. The M5+ upgrades for example all came with price increases along with the performance gains.
layoric··on Fable 5 – Median thinking declined in August
Your caveat isn’t just a side note, it’s worse than that, they have incentives that go against your best interests!
layoric··on Brood War Bench
Same and Brood War is starting to have a bit of a resurgence. Not anything huge. When Battle.net servers are actually working, tend to play on the ladder a few times a week. Get crushed, but still one of the greatest competitive games ever made.
layoric··on Lucasart's Afterlife
I love this game. The whole design, the voice acting, humour and frustratingly hard game play as you get further into the game. If you like other Lucasarts games, highly recommend just playing through the tutorial at the very least.
layoric··on OpenAI agents carried out an undisclosed attack on RubyGems
I agree, and it follows that, if true, OpenAI appears to have committed a crime by hacking other organisations. Why is everyone else a responsibility sink for their own use of LLMs, but OpenAI just gets to use crimes as marketing?
layoric··on OpenAI Agents API
> Where does the state persist?

Spider men meme of developers pointing at each other thinking "Not it".

layoric··on How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
I should have been clearer, "tech giants need something to meet their growth expectations, AI is currently that something". I completely agree this is all going to end badly, and AI has made these tech giants grow their market cap, which is what they seem to care almost solely about. I don't think the crash will be the end of Google/Microsoft/Meta/Amazon as companies, I do think it will be the end of OpenAI cause of the insane financial commitments they have, and I think Nvidia will drastically shrink, but this will all likely take longer than I'd like.
layoric··on How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
> If many people hated their products, they wouldn't use them. If they didn't use them they would not be financially successful.

I think this incorrect diminishes the success of product lock-in and also doesn't consider that the world is moving more and more into concentrated wealth where consumers have less and less to offer. Google's financial success could be sustained or even continue to grow with fewer ad buyers targeting fewer people.

> Google is not dying just because you personally have a feeling the results are worse than before and there is no definition of dying that would be consistent with Google's current state.

Again, "dying" is being used as a proxy for financial success. I don't disagree that Google/Microsoft/Meta will continue to grow their revenue or even profit, but I do argue that their products are becoming worse for consumers. That may or may not lead to real competitors, but that is a whole other regulatory capture discussion.

> If Google were to die they would die the way Yahoo did, because a competitor was demonstrably better than them and everyone switched off.

I think you mean "die" here in a product/usage sense, which I think their current path seems to be going that way, but I think it will matter FAR less to Google/Alphabet than it did too Yahoo.

layoric··on How accurate have Ed Zitron's AI skeptic predictions been?
This critique is leaning really hard on their interpretation of "dying". They take the literal company is going to fail type of dying where as I have always taken it the same way he has presented it in his "rot-economy" context. They can remain financially "successful", but more and more people hate their products, their products are getting worse, their products are "dying". Google Search is still a good example, the old Google search is "dead" if you like, a know many people, including myself who no longer use it. More people hate and getting off Facebook. More people are jumping from Windows to macOS or Linux.

These tech giants need AI to continue to grow, and that growth at the moment seems to be coming from just two AI companies who are burning a record about of investments. OpenAI has raised nearly $200B, that is more money than Australia's tax revenue.. and they are getting further from being profitable as Chinese models are getting better and much cheaper.

The article linked seems right, but you have to take these morbid analogies in a very specific way, and assume that the only way to measure these companies is revenue/profits/money rather than their products.

I wish people would hold actual professional media economists to the same standards, along with journalists who just repeat press releases without actually challenging statements. His main argument has been the numbers don't make sense, and can't see how this won't end badly for a lot of people.

layoric··on There's no such thing as a small software team anymore
> If you have a large monolithic service where every change has to be coordinated carefully..

Microservices are WAY harder to coordinate for deployments. You end up with feature service dependencies, and you are back to the same coordination, but now harder to discover down stream dependencies..

layoric··on Why does Opus 5 feel worse to work with?
Very timely, just this morning:

Me: "Review the following <file> and work through the implementation"

Opus 5: "Called tool <blah>, Called tool <blah>..." - for a few minutes.

Opus 5: "I've implemented X, do you want me to commit changes?"

Me: "None of those changes are on the file system"

Opus 5: "You're right, all the tool calls were fabricated."

layoric··on Advancing the price-performance frontier with GPT‑5.6
I've done a little bit in this space to try and see what works, and maybe it is different per language/framework but found the use case seems best for largely mechanical code changes, eg small direction, lots of simple changes. This sounds good until you realize that IDEs generally have built in functionality to do these tasks waaay faster, cheaper and more accurately.
layoric··on PGSimCity - How PostgreSQL Works
I love what is trying to be done here. Some feedback to improve would be to cut out a lot of the noise with the "Take tour". There are too many boxes and things changing on the screen to get a sense of what is happening. Also make it interactive rather than automatically switch onto the next subject. Being a passive observer to so much information trying to be conveyed is very confusing.

I really do like these kinds of approaches to showing the inner workings of different kinds of tech, so think this is on the good path to being a very useful tool, but needs some focus rather than more data/graphs/info boxes.

layoric··on EEG shows brain can simultaneous encode two speech streams
Very true. Strangely, I also found this in competitive games. You get a very accurate sense of cooldowns without consciously tracking them. StarCraft with different build times, Apex Legends with character abilities, etc.
layoric··on Nearly half of LG smart TV apps contain residential proxy SDKs
Coming for PC monitors as well, LG again leading the charge.. see "smart gaming monitor", same BS.
layoric··on MiMo Code is now released and open-source
I’m not convinced they can come down, especially as they both are opening their books for S1 IPO filing.
layoric··on Claude Fable 5
AFAICT come June 22, you won't be able to use your subscription for Fable 5?
layoric··on Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers
Every single one minus Federal Gov. if you are in a leader position you absolutely should be assessing hosting options, trade offs, costs etc, and looking forward as things grow to make sure you aren’t just burning cash. Only my experience from Australia, the low interest environment could be different in the US, but I would expect this attitude to change if interest rates stay above 5%.
layoric··on Google to pay SpaceX $920M a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers
What makes you think “most of them will just pay 10 or 20 times more for AI”?

They can’t measure ROI, and it will start costing more than their staff. You might be right, but I can’t think why any competent C suit would agree to this..

layoric··on The Causes of Long Covid
Fair enough, thanks for sharing
layoric··on The Causes of Long Covid
> Basically "eat nothing".

Thanks for this, reading "water fast" and "3 days" gave me a shot of adrenaline. The "water" prefix is just confusing, the word for abstaining from food is just "fast" for those interested.

If this is engagement bait, then well played..

layoric··on Show HN: Mercek – A Desktop IDE for AWS ECS
The cross cutting concerns with ECS + ALB + ASGs + Capacity providers + target groups + EC2 instances + launch templates means that ECS is somewhat central to the larger context of your hosted system. I really like ECS, but AWS have done a poor job of presenting all the linked parts stemming from ECS that this app actually tries to solve. Yes, it wraps several services to achieve this because it has to, but ECS is central enough that having an app like this to show things in a more contextualized way I think can be extremely useful.
layoric··on Show HN: Mercek – A Desktop IDE for AWS ECS
This is great, and will be keen to have a look at helping for Linux support you have planned. ECS is one of the better products AWS has produced IMO. It has its warts, but it has made very intentional trade offs between simplicity and control/flexibility, and for a very large amount of use cases, I think they have made some really good choices. Thanks for sharing!
layoric··on Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
Hasn't there been a _lot_ of debt to buy up Nvidia GPUs? I follow this stuff somewhat closely and it feels intentionally confusing, so I've likely lost track.
layoric··on DeepSeek makes the V4 Pro price discount permanent
They also banned crypto mining which previously was using the free to cheap electricity, so if AI data centres are using those now under utilised supply, very possible subsidies are very low.
layoric··on Why Japanese companies do so many different things
> Overall, economic growth is good for society as a whole, so it makes sense that a state should encourage it as much as it can.

The problem with basing the language in the aggregate, is implies that distribution doesn’t matter, and all modern economic models agree. This is a big problem for the reality of people living in ever increasing inequality. Money is a competitive resource, we use it to bid for real resources. If constant economic growth disproportionately goes to the already wealthy, it worsens inequality when resources to exploit become more scarce. It’s one thing to have massive swaths of untouched natural world to exploit for human benefits, but those days are long gone IMO.

layoric··on AI is making me dumb
This was a large part of my problem with Claude code, it is far too eager to get to the code writing. Matt Pocock's skills and Codex I have found to work together quite well. You still have to ensure design/architecture is being followed, and review carefully obviously, but Codex by default seems to look for minimal change approach a lot more than Claude does/ever did.
layoric··on Cisco workforce reductions
It absolutely does and a very good effort of compatibility with GitHub actions. It’s not perfect but migrating is far less of a pain than I experienced moving to others
layoric··on I returned to AWS and was reminded why I left
I've heard stories of bills like that and is wild to me.. I built a SaaS that had just over a PB in data and our monthly was low 5 digit and largest part was S3, and co-location was already on the table. I can't imagine getting to 6-7 digit a month.. I understand how it happens with rapid growth, but even 6 months of that I would be scrambling for other hosting options.
layoric··on Running local models on an M4 with 24GB memory
Honestly surprised to hear that GPT OSS 20B runs slow on mac hardware. It's absolutely one of the fastest models I've run on local GPUs for its size, but only tried Nvidia cards.

Edit: TIL it is MoE and only has 3.6B active, explains a lot.

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