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lars

1,852 karma · joined March 9, 2009

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lars··on Analyzing churn rates, free trials, and other metrics
Friendly reminder that churn rate isn't a meaningful metric, because churn probability is not constant throughout a customer lifetime: https://medium.com/swlh/youre-all-calculating-churn-rates-wr...

The churn rate will almost certainly go down on its own as your user base gets older, and consist more of long term customers. What you're usually looking for is to compute average customer lifetime, which is better done without assuming constant churn probability, see the linked post.

lars··on Request for Comments on Patenting Artificial Intelligence Inventions
The react license had "we won't sue you for violating our patents, except if you sue us first.", which entails "if you use this, you can't sue us for violating your patents, because by using this you guarantee that we have material for a countersuit." People felt that this asymmetrically benefited Facebook. You want Facebook to be on the other side of such an agreement. If a license was made that came with an agreement that neither party can sue anyone in an offensive patent suit, it would limit the destructive power of the big players that hold all the patents.

If BatchNorm, ConvNets, LSTMs, Dropout, ReLUs or any such essential neural net component came with such a clause, I could see the big players accepting the license, especially since it aligns with their publicly stated claim that they only file patents for defensive purposes.

lars··on Request for Comments on Patenting Artificial Intelligence Inventions
These ML patents are damaging the progress of AI research, and also the commercial use of this intellectual progress.

One way to attack this would be if researchers outside of Google and Facebook started patenting their discoveries, but then immediately released all rights to it under a license that's valid for anyone who does not sue offensively. That way if Google wanted to sue for infringing use of invention A, they would themselves immediately be infringing on invention B and C. Quickly any large player would be entangled into a web where any offensive lawsuit is impossible. If we had standardized licenses with these clauses, we could stand a chance to stop this.

lars··on Neural Networks Are Essentially Polynomial Regression
A hash table can also approximate any function, so the "universal function approximation" thing is a bit oversold. It isn't really what matters. What matters is how well methods generalize beyond the training data, and how much data they need to do this well.
lars··on Suicides Have Increased. Is This an Existential Crisis?
Amount of peace and wealth are clearly not fully predictive of good mental health. Public health officials in England expected a civilian mental health crisis during WW2. This didn't happen, the incidence of "neurosis" remained flat.

On some level, humans thrive under hardship. Social cohesion goes up, meaning and purpose comes easy. People who lose their job become less happy, and do not recover until they get a job again. Bill Gates wakes up and goes to his job, not because he needs money but because he needs to matter.

This worries me about AI and automation, universal basic income is needed, but doesn't solve people's need for having a purpose.

lars··on Study reveals how, when a synapse strengthens, its neighbors weaken
Maximizing total synapse strength would as useful as maximizing the number of 1-bits on your hard drive. It's not what you want :)
lars··on Ask HN: What interesting thought did you read on HN but couldn't find later?
This was Adrian Thompson using genetic algorithms to design FPGAs: https://www.damninteresting.com/on-the-origin-of-circuits/
lars··on Show HN: A HN/Reddit-style site for scientific pre-prints and publications
Only 39% of the submissions to the latest ICLR (machine learning conference) were from .edu emails [1]. There's a lot of research going on outside of academia, and there's also a large portion of academia that doesn't use the .edu TLD. That said, I don't have a solution to your problem of fighting spam.

[1]: http://webia.lip6.fr/~pajot/dataviz.html

lars··on Next-Generation GPU-Powered EC2 Instances (G3)
I don't want to promote anyone in particular, but there are a few vendors here, for example:

https://www.ovh.ie/dedicated_servers/gpu/ https://www.exoscale.ch/gpu/ http://www.cirrascale.com/cloud/plans.aspx http://www.nvidia.com/object/gpu-cloud-computing.html

Last link has a list of vendors. The one I used gave you a bare bones machine running some Linux distro, with no platform bullshit around it. Exactly what you need for deep learning work.

lars··on Next-Generation GPU-Powered EC2 Instances (G3)
Oh, there are smaller vendors renting out Pascal architecture GPUs. Yet Amazon and Azure are stuck at prev-gen (M60), while Google is all the way back at prev-prev-gen (K80).
lars··on Next-Generation GPU-Powered EC2 Instances (G3)
They say "next-generation", but these are M60 GPUs, which are very much "previous-generation". Current generation would be P100 GPUs.

I am in the market for a cloud GPU offering, and I have to say the big cloud providers are very uncompetitive here, only offering these old, slow GPUs.

lars··on Proposal to add optional social media account fields to US Customs arrival forms
I've been going to US tech conferences yearly in the last few years. As of 2016 this has stopped, since the fact that I was snowboarding in Iran in 2011 now means I can't get a visa through ESTA. I now have to take a day off work, fly to Oslo, talk to someone at the US embassy, in order to get a visa.

It's just not worth the effort at that point.

lars··on AI, Deep Learning, and Machine Learning: A Primer [video]
> One main thing it lacks is imagination. [...] For example, if I ask you to imagine a Guitar playing Dolphin, you could imagine it and even recognize it from a cartoon even though you have never seen it in your life before. Not so for Deep Learning

These days one should be careful when claiming things deep learning can't do. There are in fact systems that can imagine things it has never seen before.

Here's an example. It takes any text, and imagines an image for it: https://github.com/emansim/text2image

Here's a more recent example, with even higher quality images: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1605.05396v2.pdf

lars··on AI, Deep Learning, and Machine Learning: A Primer [video]
I agree that scale is an important factor in deep learning's success, but that Google experiment ended up being a good example of how not to do it. They used 16000 CPU cores to get that cat detector. A short while later, a group at Baidu were able to replicate the same network with only 3 computers with 4 GPUs each. (The latter group was also lead by Andrew Ng.)
lars··on Microsoft won't back down from Windows 10 nagware 'trick'
Go to "speech, inking & typing" settings. The dialog literally says they will collect your typing history.

The traffic is encrypted, and no one has been able to MITM it yet, as far as I know. But Microsoft has confirmed in the press that yes, they do this.

lars··on Microsoft won't back down from Windows 10 nagware 'trick'
More than that, what it installs fits any classical description of malware. Windows 10 comes with an OS wide key logger, that logs what you write in any application, and sends it to Microsoft.

(This usually evokes disbelief. If you think I'm wrong, please consider what you would do if it turned out I was right. Then, if you're on Windows 10, lookup your "speech, inking & typing" settings. This is where they ask permission to do this. It is turned on by default.)

lars··on How Technology Hijacks People’s Minds
Wow, I'm glad this was posted.

I think the way we use technology today will be looked back on the same way we look back at naive cigarette smoking in the 1950s.

Modern app design isn't about creating things that are good for the user, but about creating want in the user. This is a problem.

For example, there are several studies showing that using Facebook in general makes people less happy. User happiness just happens to not be be necessary for Facebook to be a successful business.

Go to a developer conference by one of the big tech companies, and speakers generally aren't talking about doing good things for the user. They'll use euphemisms like "increasing engagement". There's concepts like "permission priming", psychological tricks to get the user to do what you want. There's books written about how to maximize app addictiveness. It's stuff that mildly screws over the user, and it guides the product designs that affect the lives of billions of people. It's not good.

lars··on Thoughts on Business Insider
https://larseidnes.com/2015/10/13/auto-generating-clickbait-...

http://clickotron.com

lars··on Request For Research: Basic Income
This seems a little myopic. What distinguishes basic income from the welfare systems implemented in, say, northern Europe? Seems like there are many countries that have had basic income for decades. Couldn't you look to them and have most questions answered?
lars··on On the Influence of the Sewing-Machine on Female Health (1867) [pdf]
Spoilers: Women working on pedal driven sewing machines were complaining of back pains. An alert medical professional also discovered that the women were getting off by the leg movement that drove the machine. Clearly, it was this immoral behavior that was the cause of their back pains.

Pretty remarkable that this line of reasoning was accepted by the brightest and best educated minds only 150 years ago.

lars··on VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks
> the high terrorist attack output of Islamists vs other non-Islam subscribers

I wonder if this is really true though. Some statistics:

https://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/terrorism-20...

While Anders Breivik was shooting kids on the island in Norway, the Norwegian media were speculating that it was most likely perpetrated by muslim extremists. Even though we've historically had way more examples of terrorism perpetrated against immigration related targets by right-wing Norwegians (which was the case with Breivik as well).

The average Norwegian won't remember any of the mosques, immigrant reception centers and immigrant stores that were bombed in Norway in the past. I guess terrorism is quickly forgotten when it isn't your own group that is targeted.

lars··on Norway: photographs taken of the same places separated by long periods of time
It's almost certainly the tide. I'm familiar with the area around Torghatten. The high tide/low tide difference there can be ~2 meters, more than enough to explain all the variation in sealevel.
lars··on Unexpected Honey Study Shows Woes of Nutrition Research
There's a huge difference between a) not finding an effect, and b) finding that there is no effect. The former is the default result, and is what you get when your test lacks statistical power (from having a too low sample size). It sucks that the former often gets reported as the latter in the press.
lars··on Auto-Generating Clickbait with Recurrent Neural Networks
That was exactly the problem, bottle+gevent serving static files. It's moved behind nginx now. (But you might have to wait for a DNS propagation before you get to the new server.)
lars··on Auto-Generating Clickbait with Recurrent Neural Networks
Working on it:) It's getting a bit more traffic than expected at the moment.
lars··on Superviews.js, a template engine targeting incremental-dom
This is the first I'm hearing of incremental-dom. Can anyone explain what it is? According to their readme:

> It differs from the established virtual DOM approach in that no intermediate tree is created (the existing tree is mutated in-place).

Direct DOM manipulation is something the DOM itself has had an API for since about 1995 (and there are plenty of nice wrappers for it). What value does this provide on top of that? Does it batch up changes for requestAnimationFrame()?

lars··on Inferring Algorithmic Patterns with Stack
With SGD, you know how to take steps in the direction of a better solution. You don't have that with genetic programming, there you just know if a solution happened to be better.
lars··on Show HN: Print iconic patents for your walls
How about US6145506 A: Decorative penile wrap

http://www.google.com/patents/US6145506

lars··on I am Mt. Gox's first employee – AMA
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3fe92x/im_ashley_b...

> So you're saying that the mt gox bank account was his own personal account? I wired money to his personal account??

> Yes

Maybe it wasn't correct in 2014, but apparently it was true when Barr worked there.

lars··on Generating Magic cards using deep, recursive neural networks
These are recurrent neural networks, not recursive. That's a different model, also used for NLP, but not so readily applicable for generating text AFAIK.
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