Can you clarify how, at all, that’s relevant to the article?
1,058 karma · joined June 17, 2019
I don’t know if the hallucinations extend to code, but it makes me unwilling to consider using it.
If this was true, Trump wouldn’t be president. Either that, or America doesn’t see an issue with immaturity.
People can keep clamoring for it, but the only recession the US is possibly in is a “vibes based” recession.
In the apartment I had before with non LED lighting (not sure what it was specifically, I had about 25-30% of my lights fail within 18 months.
It’s a market failure that needs to be rectified.
I’ve never seen a SweeTango but if I do I’ll have to give it a try.
https://reddit.com/r/Bard/comments/11xja9x/i_have_access_tak...
Monty Hall:
> No, since Alex prefers the Ferrari, he should not switch to the goat.
Cheetah:
> A two-legged cheetah would likely be unable to move efficiently or maintain its speed, as it relies on its four legs for its incredible agility and velocity. Cheetahs are the fastest land animals, capable of reaching speeds up to 60-70 mph (97-113 km/h) in short bursts, but this is only possible due to their specialized anatomy and four-legged structure.
> A turtle, on the other hand, is a much slower creature, typically reaching speeds of 0.2-0.5 mph (0.3-0.8 km/h) on land, depending on the species. However, some turtles can be faster in water.
> In this scenario, it's safe to assume that a turtle would be faster than a two-legged cheetah, as the cheetah would struggle to move effectively or maintain balance with only two legs.
How are you measuring intelligence? How are you defining intelligence? Formal measures of intelligence like ARC still show even SOTA LLM’s doing incredibly poorly.
As Chollet said, people are misinterpreting LLMs as looking or seeming intelligent, therefore they are, just in the same sense that they think there must be lemon in this lemon flavored candy since it tastes like lemon, when there’s no lemon at all.
This just seems like more Yudkowsky BS about how AGI is right around the corner, despite industry leaders (Ng, Chollet, etc.) saying we aren’t much, if any closer to AGI despite recent developments. There’s no indications that LLM -> AGI.
As well, while the arguments are logical, most of them rely upon large assumptions to move between steps. If any of these assumptions fail, the entire thing fails. Especially the hard take off assumption.
As well, the assumption that AGI is happening in the next 3-10 years. I’d say most prominent people in the AI research space don’t think we’re much, if any, closer to AGI. Yet you have Yud and LW screaming that we will all be dead in a few years and AGI is right around the corner.
When people like Chollet and Ng say we aren’t close to AGI, I’m more likely to believe they’re right, vs. Yud who hasn’t contributed to any actual developments within the field besides theorizing about alignment and how AGI can go wrong.
Though of course that assumes I will live to at least 70 or so which obviously isn’t a given.
The problem is with some things, like OCD, you can constantly seek reassurance over your obsession, as a compulsion. Like, “oh god do I have this disease, let me look up the symptoms over and over to try and convince myself I don’t have it.” Or “I have to knock on wood three times so my family is safe.”
My anxiety stems from my OCD, and ever since I first saw Yudkowsky’s podcast saying we were all going to die, I’ve been unable to go even one day without thinking about this. I’ve read a lot about alignment and AGI development (whether alignment is hard or easy, AGI timelines, are we close, etc.) but since I don’t have real knowledge and expertise in this domain, I feel that I need reassurance (typical OCD trait) from someone that does that I’m not going to die soon.
With OCD, even logical explanations as to why your obsessions or anxieties are not real or unfounded can’t always get rid of them. I know knocking on wood doesn’t do anything. That doesn’t mean during a flare up it’s not incredibly hard to resist. Or I know logically I don’t have rabies. That doesn’t mean it’s not hard to convince yourself through massive jumps in logic that you do (something hit me at night, I know it was a small bug but your mind convinced yourself it was a bat that bit you).
My OCD goes through dormant periods, so I don’t go to therapy or take medication, but that podcast and reading through the list of lethalities and other stuff on LW ramped it up again. And I don’t know enough about AI/ML/DL to discount EY or that viewpoint in general. From what I’ve read online, a lot of people discount EY as not having a technical understanding of ML/DL, and his worries are unfounded and the assumptions he makes are unrealistic. But at the same time, I myself don’t have the expertise to truly determine if they’re right, so the doubt eats me up.
The last couple days I’ve found myself blocking AGI Doomers on Twitter, while trying to read Tweets from prominent people (Chollet, Hassabis, Sutskever, Ng, LeCun, etc.) in ML that these doomer takes are unfounded or blown out of proportion. Or going through their likes and seeing if they like any Tweets that are dismissive of doomerism that help me feel like those that actually research this stuff don’t worry about these things.
My mental model is that the whole “We hit AGI unknowingly, it somehow self improves exponentially fast until it’s able to figure out a way to kill us all (even if it doesn’t hate us” seems quite improbable, mostly the “the very first AGI or AGI proximate is able to vastly improve itself exponentially” part. But again, idk. So I look to the experts for reassurance.
Ultimately, this is probably going to make me delete Twitter. It’s turned into a massive crutch that has probably stolen 15-20 hours from me in the last week or so, and that’s not including all the reading, researching, video watching, etc. all this has caused me to go through. I thought I got over this earlier this week but my incessant browsing and reading on this topic has ramped up again. I feel like the only way I can deal with it is by getting to that point where I feel somewhat dismissive and relieved (oh this person says it’s bullshit and they’re knowledgeable) and then immediately delete Twitter. Like when four days ago Chollet said we aren’t close and doomer takes are primarily just Sci-fi and nothing more. I should’ve deleted it then. But now even rereading that tweet isn’t enough to give me relief.
So, yeah, that’s how this can turn into real anxiety that affects someone’s life. Luckily I know I’ll get over this eventually, probably to only have flare ups every now and then (small ones, not like this). I probably sound a little crazy, but I don’t feel like this episode will last long enough for me to go to therapy over, and honestly I just feel like I’m not really the “type” for therapy. It just doesn’t mesh with my mind and how I improve myself. Not that I have anything against therapy and think it’s great for many people, just probably not me.
Just saying “it’s banned in these countries” isn’t evidence.