koonsolo

Do you think the latter can be achieved with the LLM neural network architecture? I highly doubt it. Neural networks are very old tech, and it took us that long to get us here.

I'm sure we'll reach AGI at some point, but looking at AI history, I don't see that coming any time soon.

In 2000 I learned about this old technology called "neural networks".

AI really depends on long winters and rare breakthroughs. Deep neural network was the most recent breakthrough.

The iterations you currently see it just adding more storage, but the fundamental neural network structure doesn't change.

I'm confident AGI will not be achieved by the LLM architecture, and when the next AI breakthrough is, is anyones guess. But if you take history into account, it will take a while.

So now your competitors go twice as fast as you. Good luck with that.

It's clear you don't understand the "deterrence" part of "nuclear deterrence".

Like I said, if you think you don't need nuclear deterrance, there is no point in discussing this further.

Also funny how you give 2 examples of nuclear powers who attack countries with no nuclear deterrence.

No, it was a deliberate strategy from the green party that were very anti-nuclear. They replaced it with gas power plants. And if you think this is a joke, no it isn't.

If you think that's lunacy, let me add some extra info on top of it: It was the green party that lead the closure, and then replaced it with gas power plants.

You don't think nuclear deterrence has a place in a modern defense strategy? If not, then I don't see the point in discussing this further.

So Germany will depend on France for their nuclear deterrence then.

> f you can write the rules down, an agent will satisfy them faster than your team will.

Big difference between a working model that needs to be optimized, vs nothing working at all.

I hope you're French, otherwise you are still relying on US defense.

At the current cost, I just use the best model all the time. Why wouldn't I?

> coders are not exactly demonstrating great discretionary decision making.

From a business perspective, why would I start thinking about which model to use, when I could cheaply always use the best model?

Are you suggesting AI can understand things deeply?

LLM's are fast at applying information, but thinking deeply, they do not.

I love LLM's, because now I can focus more on the creative and thinking deep aspect, and leave most of the typing and stack overflow browsing to the LLM.

> Of course leftists are responsible for the current state of Russia. I hear there was this thing called "Soviet Union", involved in getting this country to it's current state. I guess you must not now. Look it up?

Very strange that you claim the great state of affairs in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is thanks to the the leftist Social Union. But hey, if you want to make that claim, that's all up to you.

So Russia invades Ukraine, and somehow you blame leftists for that? You must be buried deep in Russian propaganda.

> when will you sign up for Ukraine's army

There is only room in your brain for extreme thoughts? There is a lot of space between not supporting Ukraine and going to the front lines. For example donating money (I sure do as a center-right wing):

https://savelife.in.ua/

As a developer becomes better, they become better than an LLM, being able to deal with more complex things than what an LLM can handle. Some people will not be able to pass it, but others will.

When there will ever be AGI (I don't think this can be achieved with the current architecture, it needs another AI breakthrough), then we might not be able to surpass it, much like chess currently.

When kids learn calculation, they indeed are not allowed to use a calculator.

Same is true for your field now. When kids learn things the AI already knows, it's clear they can't use the AI.

If you want them to become smarter than the AI, they will have to pass through a period where they are dumber than the AI, and it's clear at that point they can't use it.

AI raised the bar, that's all. But it's still a bar that can be passed with human intelligence, and your job is to get them past that.

The problem with spec driven development is that your specs are never complete, and for sure contain inconsistencies, wrong assumptions, etc.

So now you write specs, and then an LLM, which is known to be overly compliant, will handle the implementation. If you don't see the issues with this workflow, you for sure have learned nothing about how the software development process evolved.

> High performing teams made to do agile become average teams and low performing teams made to do agile can become average teams.

This is also my observation. I compare it to McDonalds vs a star restaurant. Put the top chef of a star restaurant in McDonalds and he will perform average. Put a McDonalds member in the star restaurant and he will perform badly.

The amount of process needs to be tweaked to your team. Ideally, you can give your star players more freedom.

> Agile is defined as the process that works

Can you show a reference of where it is defined like this?

I hate the tap to click, so that's probably our difference. I really want to physically click, and a tap should do nothing. I always get fake clicks in the other case.

Dragging also becomes more natural when you have a real click.

The trackpad is also big enough to easily cover the whole screen.

"comes close" in itself is a very relative concept. So how can you claim my statements are "objectively wrong"?. Depends on how close "close" is, right.

If you can provide me an example of a laptop that beats one of those categories, it's objectively wrong. In all other cases, nope.

I switched as a long time Linux user to a MacBook because of the hardware:

- Battery: no other laptop comes even close

- Trackpad: I don't use a mouse anymore, no other laptop comes close

- Audio: No other laptop comes close

"Sharp edges" really don't bother me to be honest, I wouldn't have noticed it if nobody told me.

I have a nano-texture screen, and it works great in daylight.

Just goes to show how opinions can differ.

I recently tried to replace Dropbox with Filen. Filen supports full encryption, so like you say better on privacy.

Then I mounted it as a drive on my MacBook, and moved some backup files there. The move took a while, and after it, no backups on my MacBook, and no backups on Filen. Just nothing, no log of it, nothing.

Going to stay with Dropbox.

So in this case, Europe definitely does not do it better.

Edit: I also tried to replace Sendgrid. All European alternatives are crazy expensive, so not going to replace that either.

Instead of focussing on old tech, and keep running behind US and China, maybe we should jump on the next boat.

I switched as a heavy Linux user to a MacBook because of this reason.

1. Battery is better than any other laptop out there

2. Touchpad is better than any other laptop out there. I don't even use a mouse anymore

3. Sound is better than any other laptop out there.

There is no other laptop that comes even close to this hardware.

I get what you are saying, but as someone who was coding mobile apps in 2003 (iPhone was released in 2007), I have to give a few details.

By the time iPhone was released, it was already too late for small companies. When you developed apps and games for MS PocketPC and Blackberry, you charged $20 per app, and any average quality product would make money.

In 2007, there were only 2 kinds of success stories:

1. Companies that were able to throw a lot of money around (Your example of Candy Crush).

2. Some rare flukes of someone getting rich with some app.

So what I was trying to say: The golden days were really before the release of the iPhone.

My ideal curriculum would be to go through the entire evolution of computing, and at the final years you end up in modern computing. In the end we kind of went over all those topics, but it would have been a very straight forward curriculum. You start at basic electricity and the Turing machine, in the middle somewhere you learn about neural networks (I learned that around 2000, and it was old technology then).

When you graduate, you have a full understanding from bottom to top.

That's how I would have loved it, but maybe for others that would have been too boring, so they mixed it up.

In the end I got great value from my master in CS. All the practical things you learn at the job anyway, and I definitely learned a lot those first few years. But my education allows me at certain occasions to go further when other developers reach their limit.

Yes, definitely. I also don't think every project is able to create a plugin platform. Sometimes you just have a lot of interconnected components, where they kind of influence each other.

What I was trying to say is that in future developments, as a developer, one of the extra questions on your mind should be: can we turn this into a platform with separate plugins? Because you know those plugins can be written fast, cheap, and don't require top notch engineering work.

But I think I get what you are saying: what you gain in plugin simplicity, you pay in effort to design the platform to support them.

I guess it will depend from project to project, and so the typical "it depends" applies :).

I do agree with you, but don't underestimate the projects where you can actually apply this 10x. For example, I wanted to get some analytics out of my database. What would have been a full weekend project was now done in an hour. So for such things there is a huge speed boost.

But once software becomes bigger and more complex, the LLM starts messing up, and the expert has to come in. That basicaly means your months project cannot be done in a week.

My personal prediction: plugins and systems that support plugins will become important. Because a plugin can be written at 10x speed. The system itself, not so much.