6 karma · joined January 16, 2023
Raise >> scale >> raise cycle is toxic and can't go on forever.
It's irresponsible to shut down a business like this when there are options
In the US, as low as 30% of startups are able to raise Series A after a Seed round. The graduation from Series A to Series B is equally abysmal.
My issue is that VCs don't prepare founders for this situation, for them it's all keep growing, keep scaling. If you can't then shut down.
So you see lots of good businesses, revenue-generating, growing steadily but still not enough to stay alive on the venture path.
Are there any investors that actually help their portfolio companies when things aren't going so well?
• Why fund math and milestone pressure create zombie companies.
• Signals you’re default-dead vs default-alive.
• A step-by-step pivot framework for teams where the VC path isn’t working.
Interested in experiences from both founders and VCs, especially places this reasoning breaks.
Sharing the main lessons here as they could be helpful for founders starting to think of exits.
1) Own your objective: know if you want liquidity, scale, or a pure hand-off before you talk to buyers.
2) Overlap is everything: deals happen only when a startup solves a pressing problem for the acquirer.
3) Value > revenue: tech, talent, and time-to-market often outweigh today’s P&L.
4) Org vs individual: people with promotions on the line can swing a deal more than the strategy deck.
5) Buy vs build math: E.g: Strava bought Runna because ready users beat a 12+ month build. Speed & customer adoption matter.
6) Top - down and bottoms - up: win a senior sponsor, then get the operators excited (or vice-versa).
7) Value x Visibility = Valuation: build something worth buying and make sure the right people see your value.
Full notes are in the post (7-min read).
Curious to hear HN’s experiences: Which of these resonates based on your experience?
Happy to dig into questions on buyer psychology, buy-vs-build decisions, or anything else.
We will see stories like this appreciated more than VC-backed startups as it's simply more sustainable and impactful
Tbf, it's really hard to build a capital efficient, scalable company