1,383 karma · joined October 12, 2014
In general, methods like this require an epic amount of data to work well for consumers. The Netflix Prize made a dataset with 110 million ratings available, and that was barely enough to make impressive predictions. The issue here isn't the statistical model being used, but the paucity of training data. If you trained this or any other model on one billion rated songs, the quality of the recommendations could blow your mind. They would however still skew toward the average musical tastes.
There's a fine line between "wisdom of the crowds" and "American Idol for startups". I'm not sure exactly where Apply HN falls. It doesn't seem like any individual investment will make or break YC, and this is an interesting idea for an experiment. But I don't come away from this feeling upbeat about the democratic process.
Making it into one of the two slots available for YCF could be a really big deal for someone. The founder of Pinboard is already very successful by any standards, and the product itself probably isn't going change drastically. Can't we let someone else catch a break?
I'm thinking of curation based on a personal relationship instead of an algorithm. You would indicate that you're interested in machine learning, libertarian politics and cooking (or whatever), and people would check hn, new york times, etc and compile lists of those items. I know it's not the same thing as this post, but it's a problem and I'm wondering if anyone else feels it strongly enough to pay for a solution.
Sure, people want someone to blame for accidents. And people might not like the idea of cars without drivers, or worry about contrived "Does the car kill the driver or the pedestrian" situations. But at the end of the day, statistics is overwhelmingly on the side of driverless cars. Saying "Yes, but people aren't reasonable enough to see that" isn't helpful. The question is, how quickly can we get people to do what's best after the technology has been perfected?
And the emotional appeals cut both ways. How long before the parents of a child killed by a drunk or sleeping truck driver say "Why was he driving anyway? Why wasn't he replaced by a machine that wouldn't drink a six pack and nod off while at the wheel?"
Snowden should just come home and face the music. He'll probably get a pro bono all-star legal team and have 50/50 odds with a jury of his peers. With sufficient lawyering he could probably get away with five years at worst, and then go back to life in America as even more of a hero.
I've heard that a corporation was formed BEFORE the YC application. If shares were issued in that corporation without a vesting clause, then that's that.
If shares were not issued and the YC application is the only evidence of a 50/50 split, then why wouldn't one assume that vesting was part of that agreement? The question on the application was "describe the planned equity ownership breakdown...". Someone could reasonably argue that they agreed to a 50/50 split given the assumption of a vesting schedule, and would not have agreed to it otherwise. Which is to say, if the YC application is the proof of ownership, then how can you ignore everything that is also implicit in that application?
VC firms produce modest returns for a very high risk. You've probably only heard of one out every hundred companies that have been venture funded. Low risk investments just don't produce enough return.
From what I can tell the average salary of a hackernews reader is above $100k. Each of us would probably end up paying ~$800+ per month in additional taxes, maybe up to $1,500/mo for those making that BigCo money. [1]
The first question is, does that sound reasonable? Do you want to subtract $400 from each paycheck for the sake of total strangers? And I guess the second question is, why aren't we doing that now? How much do each of us currently give to support other people in various ways?
I think Basic Income is a good idea. If people have more money, they'll be able to click on internet ads and buy things, and that will help the companies that many of us work for. But it won't be an even exchange and many people here will end up with less disposable income. I think that it will be worth it in the long run, to ensure that the economic engine that produces our paychecks continues to function. But I don't know if every UBI proponent is prepared to deal with the short term costs.
[1] I completely made these numbers up. Could be more, could be less.
If a job can be done by a machine, that's fine. People will find new forms of employment. Or they won't. But we can't expect businesses or consumers to misallocate their resources for the sake of someone's job.
Fortunately, fully automating the process of driving or running a restaurant is decades away. We have time to implement a basic income. Or just come up with more ways to employ people. The number of available jobs is limited only by imagination. "Instagram Photo Producer", "Online Forum Discussion Facilitator", "3D Printed Object Finisher". Someone can pay someone else to do any given thing, and now that's an occupation. "Potential Job Titles" isn't a finite list, and we can't ever run out of them.
The same thing could happen today. Google engineers will always be paid a lot of money, but the average McDonalds workers could see their income fall way below the national average cost of living. Whether the minimum should be $5/$10/$15 is up for debate, but without businesses would have an unfair amount of bargaining power.
I would normally flag this as being April Fool's Day nonsense, but I like the idea too much. The title is an homage a karpathy blog post that demonstrated how an RNN could write code that didn't necessarily compile, but looked reasonable. It would be pretty cool if someone took that and tried to develop it into something, though the StackOverflow bit might have been a bit much.
Sooner or later one of these April Fool's Day things is going to turn into a serious project.
Whether or not you agree with those actions, or the whole system, is a matter of politics. I'm not condoning anything, just trying to explain the potential reasoning behind the decisions. I do hope that radical islamism runs its course in the same way that communism did. One big complication is that there are a lot more foreign powers involved in the Middle East than there were in the Soviet Union. It could be harder for them to find their own way while being manipulated by so many other hands.
It seems like there are at least certain iphones that can be opened using this method and similar hardware based approaches. Are the feds going to move forward with that? It seems like accessing this particular phone wasn't trivial or cheap. So I'd imagine that it will come down to whether or not it's "worth" the cost of flashing individual chips for each of the other devices.
And what happens if there is potentially exonerating evidence on one of those phones? Does the defense team have to come up with the money to pay for a lab or outside company to open the phone? And also, is an encrypted phone going to be the new 'dna evidence'? Like, will a brand new iphone that's linked to a major crime be held away for years until the security community can hack it, potentially setting people free or sending them to jail?
Sorry for all the interrogatives. Even though this particular case has been settled, there are still a lot of questions surrounding default device level encryption.
I know this seems like nitpicking, but you said "She went against protocol because she wanted to and she could, and she should own the consequences". The fact is that she did not go against protocol. If the president or congress wanted to prohibit the use of certain communication devices, they would have. Just like if someone's supervisor didn't want them to use a blackberry, they wouldn't write a memo pointing out problems with the device. They would just say "Don't use a blackberry."
The issue is did she break any laws or policies regarding the handling of classified information. That's for the courts to decide. But if there was any evidence I'd imagine they would have brought an indictment by now.
People self-select where they live. It could easily be that happy people choose to live in the country instead of the city, or people in cities have more stressful jobs, etc
The Uber app has a lot of details that are nice, but not essential. The minute they no longer have the cheapest fares, I'll use any other solution.
But I'm just not clear on how this works from looking at the home page. Is this all paywalled content? Or will I be paying $0.25 for something I could have read for free, like a sucker?
And also, is the NYT coming out ahead here? Does it make sense to split ~$0.30 per article with blendle instead of getting a $1/week or whatever from a regular subscription? Because I would hate to get used to using this and then have it disappear in six months because the basic economics of the business don't make sense.
If it works out I think it does, this is great. If not, hopefully it can get there soon.
Imagine you're a landlord who runs a property for those of normal income. How much do you raise rent because people who currently earn below the poverty line suddenly have $1,000 extra per month? You can raise rent on everyone, but then most of your middle class tenants will move out to seek better prices. The same is true for the price of groceries and other staples.
A smart business will maintain their prices and benefit from a larger customer base. Since everyone doesn't experience an increase in income, raising rents of all forms will only open those businesses up to price competition.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mincome
* https://decorrespondent.nl/541/Why-we-should-give-free-money...
* http://freakonomics.com/podcast/fighting-poverty-with-actual...
The problem is that it often isn't possible to falsify or confirm ideas based on limited tests. You can set up a minimum income for one town, or give money with no strings attached to several groups of people, but it won't answer a lot of the long term societal questions. It's like asking if you can test social security or universal healthcare. Those tests might not illuminate problems that could occur on a large scale, 50 years down the line.
Sometimes the only way to test something is to do it.
And now what? The supervisor could be 100% right, and maybe the employee just isn't worth that amount of money. Or maybe it doesn't make for the company to pay that amount of money. The employee could claim discrimination for any of a number of reasons, and it's almost impossible to prove that person X isn't worth as much to the company as person Y is to a different company. It seems like it could just create acrimony in what was previously a good relationship.
Transparency in pay is important, but it's almost impossible to evaluate in an empirical way, much less a scientific one. Not to mention that there is wide discretion in compensation. It's illegal to pay someone less because of their race or gender, but employers can pay someone an extra $5k a year just because they liked the color of their tie during the last negotiation.
Get paid what you're worth, but don't depend entirely on others to find out what that is.
This seems like a case of a merger/acquisition that just didn't work out. Hopefully it's for the best. The military robots that BD makes have the potential to save a lot of lives and do good, in combat and non-combat situations. Ultimately, Google/Alphabet is an advertising company. Maybe it's better for Boston Dynamics to go their own way. They can still maintain a relationship with Google and other companies to share AI knowledge and technology.