kaibee

Yeah like when Tobacco companies learned that smoking... well, hmm, well the fossil fuel companies when they learned about climate change they...

Well, I'm sure this time executives will prioritize the common good.

"Sorry kids, can't turn off the Orphan Grinder 9000, there's a whole supply chain behind it that would have to restructure."

The US destablized itself internally. China did not force the US to export its manufacturing base. It did not force the US to invade Iraq. It did not force the US to create a housing market bubble. It did not force the US to create massive income and wealth inequality. It did not force the US to supress transitioning away from oil towards cheap renewables. It did not force the US start a global oil shortage by invading Iran.

That having found itself at the tail of 25 years of poor financial planning, the US decided to go double-or-nothing by betting on LLMs to bail out the economy... does not mean that China has to fold its hand.

Legally no, but I think an honest reading of the 'fair use' statute doesn't actually pass the 'doesn't compete with the author's original work' aspect of fair use, even if the use is transformative.

Companies want to know exactly where the line is so they can figure out how to comply with the letter of the law while doing as much as possible to get around the spirit of the law. This has been demonstrated over and over again. It isn't the job of the regulator to help companies with this process.

Yeah that's other part. What was PhD level computer graphics becomes table stakes a few years later and not only do you have to do that, but you have to top it a few years later.

Oh and all of these systems have to be aware of each other, because the higher fidelity they become, the harder it is to keep the seams hidden, because the seam between them become more jarring.

Sure, you have skeletal bone animation and all that stuff in 2003, but do your characters adapt their footstep placement to the terrain height? Does the run animation blend smoothly between states? Oh it blends smoothly but now player inputs feel unresponsive because you had the clever idea to make it inertial? Oh now do it all over a network at minimum latency because esports are a hundred million dollar industry.

I can't prove it but this is almost certainly one of those things that is uh, less than universal in the population.

I'm giving this one to renewables.

> frequency

I guess technically the weather is probably bad for solar or wind more often than geopolitical disturbances to the oil market but, if we go by when its bad for solar _AND_ wind, I feel like I'd need to see the data.

> severity

Tied, maybe? Depends if we're including like, the 70s and if we're looking at just from a US standpoint or if we're including Europe.

> mitigability

I feel lot more confident in my ability to add more panels than to negotiate reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

AI isn't one thing though. Really its kind of a natural evolution of 'higher order life'. I think that something like a 'organization', (corps, governments, etc) once large enough is at least as alive as a tardigrade. And for the people who are its cells, it is as comprehensible as the tardigrade is to any of its individual cells. So why wouldn't organizations over all of human history eventually 'evolve' a better information processing system than humans making mouth sounds at each other? (writing was really the first step on this). Really if you look at the last 12,000 years of human society as actually being the first 12,000 years of the evolutionary history of 'organizations', it kinda makes a lot of sense. And so much of it was exploring the environment, trying replication strategies, etc. And we have a lot of different organizations now, like an evolutionary explosion, where life finds various niches to exploit.

/schitzoposting

I got one of these tickets here. The bus was obscured until it was already stopped, by a truck to my left. I was in the furthest possible lane. Very cool ~$380. (For further context, because like in principle I agree.)

Oh and for fun, if you follow that sidewalk down a bit, you get to see this:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.2281192,-75.3123541,3a,75y,7...

The sidewalk... just... ends because I guess crossing a bridge wasn't in scope?? and I'd pretty regularly see people and kids walking across it to get to the strip mall on the other side.

> Sounds like a fair system.

Yes, people voted for tax credits for solar/renewables. It is a fair system. You know what isn't a fair system? Fossil fuel externalities causing childhood asthma and rising sea levels requiring rebuilding coastal infrastructure globally.

This is a particularly funny one tbh. A nation's kids _are_ the retirement plan. It doesn't matter how many numbers you put in spreadsheets dated for 20-40 years into the future, if in said future, there isn't actually anyone to accept those numbers in exchange for labor.

To clarify for other people who may not be familiar, (though I'm far from an expert on it myself) you can inject/modify asm of a running binary with CE. I'm not sure if there's a way to bake the changes to the exe permanently.

A lot of software exists because humans are needy and kinda incompetent, but we needed to enable to process data at scale? Like, would you build SAP as it is today, for LLMs?

How many of those do you see around?

Its like seeing a dog play basketball badly. You're too stunned to be like "no don't sign him to <home team>".

That's kind of where AI-agent-coding is now too, though... software is more flexible.

They probably aren't really. At least in orgs I worked at, writing the code wasn't usually the bottleneck. It was in retrospect, 'context' engineering, waiting for the decision to get made, making some change and finding it breaks some assumption that was being made elsewhere but wasn't in the ticket, waiting for other stakeholders to insert their piece of the context, waiting for $VENDOR to reply about why their service is/isn't doing X anymore, discovering that $VENDOR_A's stage environment (that your stage environment is testing against for the integration) does $Z when $VENDOR_B_C_D don't do that, etc.

The ecosystem as a whole has to shift for this to work.

Each individual trained model... sure. But otoh you can look at it as a very wide junior with "infinite (only limited by your budget)" willpower. Sure, three years ago they were GPT-3.5, basically useless. And now they're Opus 4.6. I wonder what the next few years will bring.