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junkscience2017

187 karma · joined October 27, 2017

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junkscience2017··on Airbus ready to axe A380 if fails to win Emirates deal
fuel costs killed the 747, not the A380

we know this is true because no one is replacing retired 747s with A380s, they are replacing them with smaller, more fuel efficient planes

junkscience2017··on The Consumerist Church of Fitness Classes
Atlantic articles are now mostly indistinguishable from satire
junkscience2017··on What really happened in the Christmas truce of 1914?
It's a long way to Tipperary? By Christmas 1914 the war's brutality was not yet in full effect. Within one year of the Christmas truce neither side would be particularly interested in splitting a bottle of Sherry. Poison gas came on the menu instead. By 1918 they were shooting at each other within minutes of the scheduled final ceasefire, when there was literally nothing to be gained beyond watching an enemy die one last time.

I'm not sure why the Christmas Truce continues to fascinate...it amounted to nothing in the grand scheme of the conflict other than to expose the final shred of naivete on both sides.

junkscience2017··on California lawmakers have tried for 50 years to fix the state’s housing crisis
California has 40 million people. We have renewable water resources for 20 million. At this rate we will utterly obliterate our water resources for good. No government can fix that...and no, you aren't going to desal that much water either.

We need to figure out how to get 10 million out of the State.

junkscience2017··on Navigation Apps Are Turning Quiet Neighborhoods into Traffic Nightmares
Los Gatos has closed a highway onramp now for two consecutive summers and it is perfectly legal

In California, you only need approval of Caltrans. In other states it is likely similar.

Many people think there is a "taxpayer" angle...there isn't. The governing body of the roads typically has blanket authority to close roads without public consent

In the end, Towns will reconfigure themselves to be giant cul de sacs.

junkscience2017··on VOTING RIGHTS DATA INSTITUTE data for democracy and civil rights
"Boston-based team of mathematicians and computer scientists working on U.S. redistricting"

why does the US need redistricting? and who asked these people to do it?

junkscience2017··on Tiananmen Square 1989 death toll was at least 10,000 according to UK documents
Tim Cook assures us he is working hard to improve conditions...

this is about as good as it will get. private industry will try to hide and/or paper over the abuses and we will continue to honor them as "progressives"

junkscience2017··on Tiananmen Square 1989 death toll was at least 10,000 according to UK documents
not just America. growing up in Canada, exactly 0 minutes were dedicated to discussing treatment of First Nations peoples...noteworthy given that government's exceptionally awful history in that regard
junkscience2017··on Tiananmen Square 1989 death toll was at least 10,000 according to UK documents
governments going to war with their own citizenry (and I mean actual war, not class war) is less rare than one might think. it is also why people who come to the US from these places also say "don't give up your guns".

think it can't happen here? Waco.

junkscience2017··on Louisiana, Sinking Fast, Prepares to Empty Out Its Coastal Plain
one thing is for sure, no one is going to relocate at a loss if they can wait a year and then pass the bill to the government

the dangling incentive will artificially sustain coastal developments

frankly if we are going to bail out home owners on coasts, why not home owners near fire risk areas?

junkscience2017··on The Californian Ideology (1995)
firefighters, cops and nurses in many Bay Area communities make more than typical programmers and have more deterministic career/salary upgrades...and in many cases, pensions. and they don't have to worry about market forces

the other day there was a story of a nurse in San Jose (no one special) making $260k...more than most people here I bet

Programming is declining in attractiveness and may become a McJob for most

junkscience2017··on Apple’s New iPhones Get a Lukewarm Reception from Buyers
Apple's getting lazy. Clearly drowning in money doesn't do much to motivate employees.

Given Apple's deep pockets and platform ownership, how is it that Spotify is still alive? How is it the Apple Maps is still lagging Google Maps so profoundly? Or that Apple can't muster any response to Netflix at all? Let's not even get into the farcical self-driving car project they aborted

Apple has now had years and unlimited funds to compete in these service markets, but still is behind. Tim Cook needs to do some exec shuffling, the company is coasting. Shareholders and analysts won't ask tough questions, everyone is making money and they don't want to jeopardize access

junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
then everyone who lost some money in the East India Company invested in everything else rising as the British Empire expanded and made fortunes, that's what
junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
lots of people here keep using the term "hedge"...none of the permabears market these as hedge funds...they do not internally hedge their own risk positions

these are what they appear to be - bear market funds

junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
Hussmans scenario is far worse than 2008...more like the Great Depression x2

we basically don't know what would happen, but it's safe to say the rich might not be assured of a safe bearish trading market in a civil society

junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
with 5% fees, Hussman himself is making money!

it's only the clients that are losing money

he just has to produce doomsayer screeds that are convincing enough to fool the clients. he's basically being paid to write dystopian fiction

junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
sorry but the only answer any investor should care about is achieving their financial goals over the expected investment timeframe.

markets tend to rise and as a result market declines tend to be temporary

the permabear thesis appeared in the early 80s when the US was in a rut and we also became a debtor nation. the permabear thesis -that debt and fiat currency would produce an economy favoring the pessimistic (but not completely imploding to the point of collapse, because you can't invest in that), proved to be wrong over a thirty year window

if you have an axe to grind, you will always find a permabear manager willing to tell you tales of doom...it will cost you your financial goals though

junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
right, lots of fund managers accept that crashes happen periodically...the permabears like Hussman assume they STAY low over a long period of time yet society retains enough order to let them fulfill their thesis

if the market crashed that low for a decade, you would see massive regime change in every democratic nation and the rich would be stripped bare

junkscience2017··on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin
Lots of permabears will go long when it's obvious markets are headed up, not Hussman.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-growth-fund/

As always, Hussman manages the near impossible feat of reliably losing money in virtually any market environment

The Dow has risen 5k in a year and Hussman still manages to be in the red....I'm sure his clients are thrilled

on top of the how-is-that-possible string of losses in every fund he manages across any time frame...his expense ratio is insane! 5% fee ratio to lose money in a bull market...sign me up?

his clients would be better off maxing out a string of savings accounts to earn 0.1% interest but get FDIC coverage

most permabears since the 80s realized you can't fight the Fed, even if the whole system is based on BS

junkscience2017··on Goldman Sachs Is Setting Up a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk
it changes the risk profile when insolvency is not a potential outcome

I'm not damning GS...any entity that has officially crossed over into too-big-to-fail should take as many crazy risks as possible...why not?

junkscience2017··on Goldman Sachs Is Setting Up a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk
amateurs like Coinbase might speculate, but pros like GS use the Federal Reserve as their backstop

its one of those "heads I win, tails you lose" scenarios...GS will keep the profits but if things go south, their losses can just be taken out of your local school budget

junkscience2017··on Goldman Sachs Is Setting Up a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk
BTC to $100k followed a drop to $80 and a public bailout

happy trading

junkscience2017··on When should behaviour outside a community have consequences inside it?
its quite simple really, if you are a conservative at a Silicon Valley company, just lie to anyone who tries to reveal your belief system.

real shame we don't have a President Sanders...yes, really, oh yes I agree...

junkscience2017··on What Elon Musk Doesn't Get About Urban Transit
I can see why Citylab would favor a system like BART...making everyone equally miserable (aka "levelling") is a primary motivation of the left

Citylabs fantasy community is an endless stream of apartment buildings virtually fenced in by taxation (so you can't even dream of escape) and regulation (so you could only ever get as far as public transportation would take you). all ruled by people who post on HN. no thanks!

junkscience2017··on The Atlantic to Install Paywall
In 2017 you learn things when they are leaked, not when they are investigated. How much was Edward Snowden making for the story of the year?

Atlantic on the other hand publishes long form opinion pieces

junkscience2017··on The Atlantic to Install Paywall
Despite what these publications tell you, the oversupply of people wanting to write things on the internet means you actually do not need to pay for "quality" journalism.

For every grizzled vet that throws in the towel, frustrated with adblocking freeloaders...two young idealists take their place.

Anyone can publish a blog. Mastheads don't have a reason to exist anymore. My advice to a young writer is to build your own brand and forget about print operations trying vainly to stay relevant but have no reason to exist anymore.

On any given day, on any given topic, I can usually look around for a few minutes in any Reddit thread and find something genuine, well written, and useful that is equal to or superior to "quality" journalism that apparently won't survive without my money

junkscience2017··on Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU
and how does your jab advance that?
junkscience2017··on Britain is, and was, deluded about its negotiating power with the EU
the EU is rapidly turning in to a union with few willing and satisfied participants

the EU would be much better off letting disgruntled states go, even if it diminishes the size and prestige of the remaining union, unless the bureaucrats relish spending the next fifty years in endless, pointless debate and hand-wringing

the UK isn't alone. I doubt the EU will see 2030 in its current form.

junkscience2017··on Enforcing New Rules to Reduce Hateful Conduct and Abusive Behavior
you know what, just kick me off. frankly this site has taken on most of the awful qualities of twitter. your guidelines are designed to coerce people into writing pablum and i've decided i don't want to reduce myself any further. enjoy your echo chamber.
junkscience2017··on Enforcing New Rules to Reduce Hateful Conduct and Abusive Behavior
By forcing an equivalence with Nazism, you have proven my point, happy tweeting.
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