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jsmcgd

1,838 karma · joined April 19, 2007

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jsmcgd··on Polaris Program
A vacuum inside a spacecraft is not necessarily cold, nor is the vacuum outside the spacecraft. Components may even begin to overheat in the absence of circulated air.
jsmcgd··on The next big Wi-Fi standard is for sensing, not communication (2021)
> wifi 7 isn't suddenly enabling that part of rf analysis or mathematics

It makes it suddenly ubiquitous when all new WiFi devices use the new standard.

jsmcgd··on Sperm Parameters After Covid-19 Vaccine
> What if a new more deadly, more infectious or vaccine-resistant variant appears that could have been prevented from a quick mass vaccination?

The vaccine rollout could only ever proceed so quickly and we already have a 'vaccine-resistant' variants. So I agree the benefits look incredibly dubious.

Remember the so called vaccines don't even claim to stop people spreading or catching the virus. They only reduce rates of hospitalization. Vaccine is a misnomer. They should just be called therapeutics. They're doing almost nothing to stop the spread.

jsmcgd··on Sperm Parameters After Covid-19 Vaccine
I don't know how you can dispute that if you are trying to compute A where A = B/C and you don't have a fixed value for B, then you cannot know A with any certainty. We're distributing novel vaccines treatments which have had zero long term tests. We are all in the middle of the worlds largest vaccine experiment. The final results will not be known for years.

Particularly there are actually plenty of reasons to believe there might be lots of long term consequences. Especially for coronavirus vaccines:

- previous attempts to make coronavirus vaccines often made people more susceptible to subsequent variants not less through ADE (antibody dependent enhancement) where the virus uses the immune system to infect more cells

- long term testing used to be an essential part of vaccine approval, presumably not for no reason

- distributing multiple novel vaccines increases the chance that a harmful one will have been distributed (albeit to fewer people than just administering one novel vaccine)

- distributing a vaccines during (not before) a pandemic almost guarantees increased virulence (much like administering incomplete courses of antibiotics promotes antibiotic resistant bacteria)

- unlike other vaccines, the active ingredient - the spike protein - is toxic. The vaccines make your cells produce this protein and it accumulates in bone marrow and especially the ovaries. The long term effect of this is to be determined

- vaccination can make the immune system hyperfocused on a specific variant, increasing vulnerability against other variants

There is also the issue of accute vacine injury, but I'll not go into that.

Immunology appears to be one of the most complex systems to try and contend with. I'm not an expert, but I worry that the 'tentative analysis' may have not been sufficient.

Hopefully it was the right decision to vaccinate the entire western world with novel vaccines. Time will tell.

jsmcgd··on Sperm Parameters After Covid-19 Vaccine
It's impossible to say what the risk/reward trade-off is, if all the risks aren't known.
jsmcgd··on Path Tracing Quake in Blender
Please can you do the same for Thief? :P
jsmcgd··on Fed balance sheet tops $8T for first time -data
As more and more people are squeezed economically, all existing tensions will be exacerbated. The biggy is when enough people start to struggle to consume enough calories that s** really starts to hit the fan. I would expect every geo-political problem, every cultural problem, every domestic problem to get worse.

Whatever is going to happen is going to happen soon. Such is the nature of exponential growth. Everything seems to happen all of a sudden at the end, despite the rate of growth potentially remaining constant. Then some period of radical adjustment, as all exponential growth of any system in the real world is unsustainable and must end.

jsmcgd··on If you sell a house these days, the buyer might be a pension fund
Lack of housing is not a technology or industrial problem. New homes can be made easily and relatively cheaply if given the go ahead.

Lack of housing is by policy. By ensuring there are not enough houses ensures there is more demand than supply, which means higher housing prices, which means higher mortgages. The mortgage market is based on rising house prices. The banking industry is based on the mortgage industry. Low house prices, would mean a falling mortgage market, which means a banking crises. Given that the banking cartel has more influence on politicians than the populous, we have this current state of affairs.

Remember, in the 1950s a new build home would cost about 1 years salary. Now one year's salary might only buy a nice car. Building technology hasn't gotten worse, it's much better and cheaper. It's not the construction companies that need disrupting.

Edit: Also I should say that that was the state of affairs until just recently. This recent move by Blackrock and the like is the prelude to massive inflation. They are abandoning paper assets (cash, equities etc) and investing in hard assets like housing, farmland and commodities.

jsmcgd··on Plotting the source code “TODO” history of the most popular open source projects
It would also be interesting to plot the number of TODOs against the size of the code base too. One would assume that as a project grows, the number of outstanding TODOs would grow too. Where and when this isn't true, might reveal something more interesting.
jsmcgd··on The Agas Map of Early Modern London
Does anyone know what the various numbers and letters on some of the church towers represents?
jsmcgd··on Taiwan bans recruitment for jobs in China
> Most tech workers should be earning in seven digits

According to which metric?

jsmcgd··on Swimlanes.io – generated editable sequence diagrams
The inline editing and change propagation is very cool.

[bug] Swimlane name changes aren't propagated to notes.

jsmcgd··on SpaceX wins contract to develop spacecraft to land astronauts on the moon
As long as the crewed starship is fuelled in orbit not too long after the last tanker ship launched, then the amount of boiloff will be negligible.

I suspect Spacex will develop cooling systems to re-liquefy any gaseous propellants as this will be more of a concern for the ~6 month mission to Mars.

jsmcgd··on SpaceX wins contract to develop spacecraft to land astronauts on the moon
Also it does not need to be the same tanker to do the resupply. The plan is to make 2 starships per week. There should be plenty available to continue refuelling missions if one is not available.
jsmcgd··on Why inflation is not a threat
"If it falls as the supply increases there will be no inflation." Agreed. This is tautological. The fall of velocity is price deflation. Increase in velocity is price inflation. It doesn't matter if the currency supply is increasing or decreasing.

However the well established hyperinflation trend is the money supply is increased as the velocity is falling until the point where confidence in the currency collapses. Then the velocity spikes and the value of the currency goes to zero.

So we know exactly where we are. We are currently in the deflationary period that precedes all hyperinflation. And we know it will be hyperinflationary because of the amount of money being printed and the lack of economic growth.

If the money supply had increased 5% in the past year then I wouldn't say we're about to have hyperinflation. But the M0 money supply increased from 3T to 5T in about a year. No system, no matter what it is can sustain that level of growth. All exponential growth is short lived.

jsmcgd··on Electric car that charges itself
Is there scope for collection IR and UV from the windows? Also can the chassis be made of batteries?
jsmcgd··on Why inflation is not a threat
I appreciate you posting your thinking on this. I suspect others share your model. I strongly reject the metaphor of oil and water, that there are different monies. In fact if there was such a thing I wouldn't be as worried. Problems could be contained to specific domains. But as you will see one crisis will beget another and another, and no sector will be spared. One will infect the other. There are no barriers. Investors are not constrained in anyway exchange bonds for stocks in a closed system. They can, and do exchange any items of value (cash, commodities, shares, bonds, ETFs, derivatives) and they can do so in multiple markets. Governments will actually try to prevent this through shuttering markets, capital controls etc but they will be too late to prevent economic harm, to say nothing of long term damage to sentiment. Any measures taken merely delay the problem which will be waiting for them when the markets do re-open.

Economies are very much complex systems, not a steady state systems. At times it behaves like a steady state, but at other times there are significant shifts that break the previous paradigm. You only have to consult any history book of the 20th century to prove this to yourself. I strongly suggest that this a Pascal type wager that you do want to take. You want to assume my argument is correct and hedge against massive inflation. Your livelihood, and possibly your life depends on it.

One way you might convince yourself is if you look at similar situations in economies that were not governed by the Fed. There are many: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...

I would argue that the Fed, IMF etc actually agree with my position and that is what is driving their desire for new Central Bank Digital Currencies (which IMO are a sham to profit of the public ignorance of actual cryptos and provide a smoke screen while a new global currency is rolled out that will be used to economically control everyone) however I strongly doubt that they will be able implement such a thing before the collapse begins (and it merely delays the inevitable anyway).

Therefore governments (where they can) will default to precious metals to back their currencies. The major winner will be China, as it has the world's largest actual gold reserves (despite the official figures). The US will then be using a gold dollar and China will dictate its price. China now effectively rules the world.

jsmcgd··on Why inflation is not a threat
Yes exactly. Why is it bad to make everyone a millionaire?

It's bad because making everyone a millionaire by decree, or printing more units of currency is necessarily the same thing as devaluing the currency. Such that the population as a whole has exactly the same amount of buying power, and now each unit of currency is worth much less.

The inflation of the M0 money supply, base money, WILL lead to an increase in consumer prices for everything including essentials like food. The only reason people can try to convince themselves otherwise is because of the time lag between when the money is printed and when it shows up in consumer prices. So when the government quadruples the base money supply and the price of a loaf of bread doesn't quadruple in price, people start to think this inflation is no big deal. Well just wait. That loaf of bread will more than quadruple in price. And it will happen all of a sudden.

The majority of the printed money is going into assets like equities. These have increased massively in value, despite the fact that revenues have not increased that much, or have even decreased. This is a bubble and it will collapse. When that happens, then you will see all those printed dollars. Investors will rapidly divest themselves of their shares and will be putting those dollars into others assets that are seen as much safer investments like commodities including food.

By this point governments have no ability to reverse course, in fact they are committed to exacerbating the situation. Printing money is necessary to plug the deficit of government spending. You could turn off the money supply but it will mean devastating cuts to government spending. So they won't do it. Instead they will start implementing wide-scale, all pervasive capital controls in an effort stop people divesting themselves of the rapidly weakening dollar. This is an economic straight jacket and will shrink the economy further, massively stunting tax revenues, in turn reducing government spending, in turn shrinking the economy further.

Calls to 'tax the wealthy' will be eventually implemented, but there isn't anywhere near enough wealth there to tax to cover the effects of a money supply that has grown exponentially. Regardless new tax bills will be introduced. The very wealthy will have already moved their wealth into non taxable assets, domestic and overseas. (This is already happening). The law makers know this, yet regardless this taxation burden will fall squarely on the rapidly diminishing middle classes and ballooning lower classes. You can read the above again to see exactly how printing money is a highly effective tax in it's own right and it did not require any legislation to write.

At this point the world is caught in an economic death spiral and it won't recover until the currency has completely bottomed out and begins again with a new currency and confidence slowly returns. There is no telling how much long term economic damage will have been done by this point.

There is no magic or mystery here. This is not complicated. It is not new, unknown and to be determined. This will be a carbon copy repeat of exactly the same follies experienced by numerous economies in recent history. The only open question is, much like a coming earthquake, when? The answer unfortunately is very soon.

jsmcgd··on Fed Chairman says economic reopening could cause inflation to rise temporarily
Can you think of any period of hyper-inflation without quantitative easing? People assume that because the velocity doesn't increase in lock step with the amount of currency creation that somehow inflation has been avoided, but the tsunami is still coming.

A series of growing incidents will become a crisis, and it will lead to a collapse in faith of the spending power of all western fiat currencies. That's when everyone, including large institutions will start disgorging vast amounts of dollars in an effort to put that value somewhere more secure and the spending power of the currency will collapse and with it the value of everyone's savings.

There is nothing new here. This has happened many times before.

jsmcgd··on Generate Flowcharts from Text
It would be great to have an option to be able to save the text to a file, and load text from a file.

Also an ability to click a line and create a connected node.

Also it would be great to drive the app from the diagram, ie generate text from the diagram.

Anyway I like it. I've used Linux Mint's built in Web Apps tool to create an offline version.

jsmcgd··on Create a 3D product landing page with ThreeJS and React
It's worth remembering that for every dismissive comment, there are thousands of people that tacitly approve.
jsmcgd··on Getting Started with Signal
I'm in the process of moving family and friends. For my friends who I believe are more than capable of moving, I just said them that I'm leaving WhatsApp, you can still reach me on Signal. Then I block them on WhatsApp, so I don't relapse. Almost all of them have moved across so far. I installed Signal for my mom and then blocked my myself on WhatsApp on her phone, so she's forced to use Signal to contact me. If someone can use WhatsApp they can definitely use Signal. It's more secure and it's cleaner.
jsmcgd··on Will the US experience a violent upheaval in 2020? (2012)
I think that's why an education has to be broad. A selective education can be tantamount to brainwashing/propaganda. Give the students as many perspectives and hope that they will do something sensible as they process the information; knowing that not all will, but most.

I believe that the more perspectives you are aware of, the less likely you are to be dogmatic and extreme in your beliefs and actions. You will be reminded how dissimilar real life is to simple ideas and rhetoric, that it is a shifting ocean of nuances and caveats.

Or society can go the other route, assume you cannot trust the people and create a tyranny of disinformation and control.

jsmcgd··on Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-Financial Implications
The difference, is that the CBDC will be even more centralized. To control currency flows requires the participation of many separate entities. With this new 'digital money' it requires only the participation of those who control the blockchain. ie political policy can be achieved programmatically, by having complete control over all currency transactions in a nation. This is very different from the status quo. It should be noted that cash will soon be eliminated.

The potential for abuse here is enormous. If you think shadow banning is problematic from a free speech perspective. Imagine being silently shadow banned from your local grocery store. Imagine not being able to donate to a particular cause/political party. Imagine not being able to give a friend in need financial support because their social score is too low.

People have no actual freedom without economic freedom, and this system will create a sword of Damocles that will hang over each and every person.

jsmcgd··on Physics is stuck
What work were they doing?
jsmcgd··on Argonne National Lab Breakthrough Turns Carbon Dioxide into Ethanol
Roughly speaking, if the carbon is captured from the atmosphere and later released into the atmosphere, the technology is carbon neutral.

If the carbon is sequestered (stored permanently) it is carbon negative.

If the carbon is obtained from an unsustainable source and released to the atmosphere it is carbon positive. The current consensus is that only carbon positive systems are considered a problem.

jsmcgd··on Chrysler's Radical Space Shuttle Design
> SSTO configurations just aren't very good at lifting much mass to orbit, so that seems unlikely.

Depends what you mean. Performance wise they are not as efficient as multi stage expendable rockets, however they offer possibly the best operational efficiency of rocket system.

The venture star has a launch capability of 20 tons to LEO. Larger lifters like Boeing's proposed 'Big Onion' had a lift capability of 227 tons to LEO. Despite its large size, its fully reusable nature and simple design would have meant its operation would have been considerably cheaper than anything that has flown to date.

I suggest that it would be prudent to test at least one SSTO before the industry writes off the technology. Especially if we had one already 90% complete!

jsmcgd··on Ask HN: Where to Search for Remote Jobs?
Here's a good list of remote work job boards: https://github.com/lukasz-madon/awesome-remote-job#job-board...

There's also this: https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1wCeKcivSEseEnrsnDrhn...

jsmcgd··on Ask HN: Where to Search for Remote Jobs?
https://remoteworkjobs.io
jsmcgd··on The race is on to develop new strategies for storing nuclear waste
The best option for dealing with nuclear 'waste' is to use the use up the energy contained within it.

Moltex Energy is one such proposal to do just that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ju59gcdmdvI

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