"If it falls as the supply increases there will be no inflation." Agreed. This is tautological. The fall of velocity is price deflation. Increase in velocity is price inflation. It doesn't matter if the currency supply is increasing or decreasing.

However the well established hyperinflation trend is the money supply is increased as the velocity is falling until the point where confidence in the currency collapses. Then the velocity spikes and the value of the currency goes to zero.

So we know exactly where we are. We are currently in the deflationary period that precedes all hyperinflation. And we know it will be hyperinflationary because of the amount of money being printed and the lack of economic growth.

If the money supply had increased 5% in the past year then I wouldn't say we're about to have hyperinflation. But the M0 money supply increased from 3T to 5T in about a year. No system, no matter what it is can sustain that level of growth. All exponential growth is short lived.