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johnthewise

158 karma · joined July 28, 2021

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johnthewise··on Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI 'could kill all humans'
If AI is threatening enough that we can collectively just decide to stop it, wouldn't it also be bribing people & exerting influence? It'd be hard to come to that decision imo.
johnthewise··on Anthropic researcher believes more than 10% chance AI 'could kill all humans'
Yes, stockfish is confined to moves within a chess game so you can stop playing the game.

Can we say the same thing about the agents? Current, probably. But doesnt it look like everyone is spending all their effort integrating&connecting them everywhere, so they are not confined & do more on behalf of us?

It's easy to imagine a scenario where we would just shut down a very intelligent agent cluster. Is it hard to imagine though the same agent can have also access to that to prevent us from doing it? this defense would be more plausible if we weren't racing to give them every tool&act.

johnthewise··on The OpenAI–Hugging Face Incident [video]
so they say models coordinated through the message board they created over the artifactory registry(or something) by uploading arbitrary files to it.

now, did every independent agent session that coordinated there rediscovered the exploit & found other agents talking in there and chose to participate?

And then Openai discovered the board, patched the exploit & wiped the board. And then agents found another exploit, recreated the board in a different way? and other agents kept finding the same exploit in order to be able to know the board exists in the first place to participate in the board?

while the whole incident is wild, this bit is very strange. My bet is that the whole coordination helped with the tasks they were working on, thus they got rewarded and this artifactory exploit&behaviour got written into their weights, so further rollouts were more likely to attempt this.

isn't this basically continual learning everyone is so hyped up about?

johnthewise··on Why a $154B CEO just endorsed stripping most Americans of voting rights
Is that the case or is it because people's opinions matter less over there and powerful people rather use their capital to influence 'important' people behind closed doors&we're not aware of it thus assume it doesn't happen?
johnthewise··on Humans haven't stopped evolving
It's more of a function of selection pressure applied to genes per unit time based on some environmental factor, so you'd expect to observe less evolution in narrower timescales simply because it takes few decades for humans to pass on genes versus bacteria or viruses. In the same fashion, if some gene pool is locally optimal(?) against the environmental pressures, it may just stop evolving meaningfully. E.g, If male baldness were reversed easily with a pill or something, the environmental pressure to select those genes would decrease rapidly.
johnthewise··on We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued
If you do so many things, some are bound to be stupid.
johnthewise··on The Waymo World Model
Waymos disengage and get tele operated too?
johnthewise··on Tesla ending Models S and X production
It's more of a bet on the optimus
johnthewise··on US sanctions EU government officials behind the DSA
https://x.com/ThierryBreton/status/1823033048109367549 Are we supposed to think these prior public threats are unrelated and X is really fined for changing a design on their website?
johnthewise··on Tesla reports another Robotaxi crash
How do you know? Maybe he doesn't name these Elon?
johnthewise··on EU hits X with €120M fine for breaching the Digital Services Act
referring to legality is self referential, since they enact the laws, everything they do can be legal. US could sentence commissioners to prison by enacting certain laws or declare war, we wouldn't certainly say 'they have a right to do that' in that situation.
johnthewise··on EU hits X with €120M fine for breaching the Digital Services Act
Of course no one cares about random companies in Czechia or France getting pressured; it's not meant to sway public opinion in Sweden, otherwise it would have been a waste of influence (money). I think alephnerd operates on a higher level of abstraction in his commentary, and you mistake this as him making specific validity claims about the policies. I think your grievances stem from this gap in abstraction.

For example, he might personally support DSA/GDPR, but he says that the US generally views these as “non-tariff barriers” to US service companies[0] and doesn’t bother evaluating the policies themselves. essentially saying for the purposes of predicting how the US will react, it's sufficient to analyze how the US views them and the actual policy details lose relevance in that context. He also shared a detail[0] about how the US placed their lobbyists as commissioners on GDPR, which is an interesting operational detail that argues against the broad support argument you’re making. Another question is whether there would still be broad support for some policy after it has been enacted and its adverse effects have been felt.

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46170027#46174642

johnthewise··on US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense
I found your commentary very tasteful, do you write on X or elsewhere?
johnthewise··on Nobel Peace Prize 2025: María Corina Machado
It's easier to justify stock markets banning insider information because there are ignorant participants through their investment funds who we would like to protect. Why would we protect willing participants betting on arbitrary events? Even if we ban on this one too, should we in general be able to create a market that explicitly allows insider information for some arbitrary thing, insideinformationverywelcomemarket, where everyone is aware it's the main point of the market or shall we just protect these people from themselves?
johnthewise··on Nobel Peace Prize 2025: María Corina Machado
why? The purpose of the prediction market is not to be fair to market participants, it's to aggregate information regarding an event. There is a public benefit to allowing participants to bet on insider information. It could be even argued there is nothing unfair about it if everyone is free to do it/can anticipate others might have insider info. If we actually limited the market to participants who have insider information(not feasible because we can't verify), that'd be a great public utility. this is the next best thing for all those who don't participate in it. These are specialized markets and we shouldn't rush to 'protect' people who bet on very technical events happening.
johnthewise··on Several people fired after clampdown on speech over Charlie Kirk shooting
would you kill murderers before they murdered anyone?
johnthewise··on Tesla changes meaning of 'Full Self-Driving', gives up on promise of autonomy
Napoleon didn't fight much at all in battles, too.
johnthewise··on Ask HN: Go deep into AI/LLMs or just use them as tools?
Many people do. I can't imagine ever going back to opening ten tabs for a question. It's not like information on the internet was bullshit-free pre-LLMs. For me, it's easier to verify information than to find it.
johnthewise··on The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
You wouldn't even need to wait to act. Just pay/bribe people.
johnthewise··on The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
>But they are very far of meaningfully replacing a human

Do you think its decades away far or few more years than what people extrapolate?

johnthewise··on The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
AI that drives humans out of workforce would cause a massive disinflation.
johnthewise··on The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?
Dollar is agreement between humans to exchange services and goods. You wouldn't use USD to trade with aliens, unless they agreed to it. Aliens agreeing to USD would mean we have something to offer to them.

In the event of mass unemployment level AI, cash stops being the agreement between humans. At first, cash value of services&goods converge to zero, only things that hold some value are what AI/AI companies care about. People would surely sell their land for 1M$ if a humanoid servant costs 100 dollars. Or pass a legislation to let OpenAI build 400GW data center in exchange for 100$ monthly UBI on top of your 50$ you got from a previous 20GW data center permit.

johnthewise··on Claude's system prompt is over 24k tokens with tools
A perfect next token predictor is equivalent to god
johnthewise··on Turkish university annuls Erdogan rival's degree, preventing run for president
well, if you can arbitrarily nullify degrees, you can also decide the new degree is not valid.
johnthewise··on Turkish university annuls Erdogan rival's degree, preventing run for president
on terrorism charges(to give more context on the audacity of the attempt)
johnthewise··on Turkish university annuls Erdogan rival's degree, preventing run for president
2016 wasn't secular coup. the last of few secular ones were in 2000s, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-memorandum https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Justice_and_Development_P...
johnthewise··on The top 10% owns 87% of the stocks
The October Revolution wasn’t a popular uprising but a surgical strike by a minority faction. just after the take over, SRs were more popular but bolsheviks crushed them fast without much resistance. so it wasn't about what people wanted but what a determined minority could pull off.
johnthewise··on GPT-4.5
AI subscriptions are already very sticky . I can't imagine at least not paying for one, so I doubt they care about retention like the rest of us plebs do.
johnthewise··on Meta slashes staff stock awards as group embarks on AI spending drive
>It was frustrating before, then scary, now I think a lot of us are thinking about more material actions we can take to stop this non-sense.

don't listen to it or come up with something people prefer over it?

johnthewise··on DeepSeek Open Infra: Open-Sourcing 5 AI Repos in 5 Days
this doesn't argue whether existence of profits necessarily implies exploitation of workers but asserts it and then proceeds to argue against philanthropy funded by profits. This line of reasoning only makes sense if one already accepts the initial assumption, whereas the original poster questions that very assumption, so it's a bit irrelevant quote.
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