13,367 karma · joined August 27, 2009
The environment is just obviously two sigma better. This just... seems obvious to me? In the same way that I will get stronger much faster if I have a physical trainer to tell me exactly what I am doing wrong when I do it? And it seems obviously unsolvable other than by getting everyone a private tutor (or AI..?).
Asking from a place of curiosity.
FWIW I do find it somewhat useful to have someone point out "this is an LLM" - I don't always have my AI detector on and I appreciate it when other people do. And when someone says particular text was LLM generated I need to go back and think about whether I believe it a bit harder.
e.g. "Claude Code connects from users’ machines to Anthropic to log operational metrics such as latency, reliability, and usage patterns. "
What exactly do you want Anthropic to say here? "This model, the one we are about to give to the entire world for cheap, is really good at hacking"? Saying Sonnet is terrible at cybersecurity is the most reasonable thing they can say, out of a lot of bad options.
Honestly your argument sounds detached from reality.
It can't be both ways. It will either be bad enough that most of us will still have jobs, or good enough that most of our needs will be solved.
I think you basically have to accept there will be one of two options -- either it scales at something like O(n), in which case you have some number of highly skilled professional which can use AI to do the work of 100x of a SWE today (that would be a pretty cool job). Or it scales with something like O(1). I think in the second world the only logical conclusion is that AI is so incredibly capable that the world is profoundly and utterly transformed. If AI can do the work of any SWE without oversight, it can basically do anything -- which would mean that any need you have could be satisfied. If you are hungry, food could be grown. If you are thirsty, water could be procured. Or you would need to propose some crazy future where AGI is achieved but for some reason trivial things like this can't be solved.
I think the thing that makes me the most nervous is some enemy actor going rogue with AI and killing us all, but somehow we've lived for decades with enemy actors having access to nuclear and bioweapons and somehow we are all still here.