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joefigura

476 karma · joined February 15, 2021

I build blimps. I used to build satellites.

Get in touch at https://buoyant.aero/contact

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joefigura··on Grifters, believers, grinders, and coasters
The author makes this point.

"These aren’t immutable aspects of your personality. They’re more categories for how you approach the job of software engineering - you’ll move around between quadrants as you change your approach to work, for all the usual reasons."

joefigura··on Oregon decriminalized hard drugs – early results aren’t encouraging
A person who becomes addicted to opiods, methamphetamine, or other "hard" drugs will with some probability require medical treatment, and and some people who uses those drugs will cause other costs to society. I don't know what those percentages are, but for opiods it's definitely not negligible. Many people begin using opiods and become addicted without intending to, and later need medical assistance. So there is a public interest in how much these substances are used, and it's legitimate for government to regulate them.

In other words, there's a tradeoff between the autonomy to do things to your body and the real costs that drug addiction imposes on others.

joefigura··on Cancer pill AOH1996 shows promise in annihilating all solid tumours
Link to paper here: https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/fulltext/S2451-94...
joefigura··on Promising Cancer Drug - AOH1996 Cancer Drug Paper
This is the paper on AOH1996 which a flagged front-page AI-generated story was based on. The title of the paper is "Small molecule targeting of transcription-replication conflict for selective chemotherapy," but that was too long for HN, so I substituted a title
joefigura··on Cancer pill AOH1996 shows promise in annihilating all solid tumours
That is not the paper mentioned in the press release, that's a different paper on the drug published in 2018 by the same group. The current paper is here:

https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/pdfExtended/S2451...

joefigura··on Cancer pill AOH1996 shows promise in annihilating all solid tumours
That article should be ignored and people ought to read the PR that the research group put out.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/city-of-hope-scient...

Edit: Or better yet, the paper https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/fulltext/S2451-94...

joefigura··on Cancer pill AOH1996 shows promise in annihilating all solid tumours
Agreed, the author on the linked article is listed as an AI, and the article is just an AI mangling of the PR release. The PR release is directly from the group and the link ought to be changed.

Edit - Here is the FDA record page for the relevant clinical trial: https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05227326?titl...

The press release says they've published a paper today, but doesn't link to it or say where it was published. So if anyone has journal access and can see or share the paper let us know.

Edit2 - The paper is here: https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/pdfExtended/S2451...

joefigura··on A room-temperature superconductor? New developments
Well, half the comments are making fun of the spotty quality of the evidence and it's been barely a week since the paper was published. I think it's reasonable to wait for at least a pre-print of a successful replication. I don't think it's fair to say the MSM is ignoring it, the possible discovery literally just happened and some combination of low awareness and caution with the evidence means they haven't covered it yet.
joefigura··on A room-temperature superconductor? New developments
I mean it's been like 3 weekdays since the preprint was widely noticed. Labs in the U.S. are working on it and will publish. I don't think the difference between publishing a replication in 3 days or 2 weeks is meaningful to make inferences about the two countries
joefigura··on A room-temperature superconductor? New developments
Dude sometimes scientific progress really does happen, and it's messy when it's happening live, and people get excited about it because they really do find science inherently exciting.

I've got no clue what you're trying to imply. Most things aren't an internet conspiracy. Skepticism is warranted, and the claims about LK-99 are far from proven. But there's 100s of thousands of researchers out there in the real world, doing research and publishing papers, and that really is what's happening here.

joefigura··on Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt
In general I'd agree with you, but in this case I think the second group very likely didn't reproduce the first group's material. The measured electrical properties of the two groups aren't even close to each other. I think that strongly suggests the two groups were measuring different materials, and that the structure of the second group's material differed in some way. A more convincing failed replication would find mostly similar electrical properties and reproduce the levitation that the first group found, but explain it with a phenomenon other than superconductors
joefigura··on Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt
idk if it turns out this material is a room temperature superconductor, the rushed second paper will have been the right thing to do. Science happening in real time is gonna be messy
joefigura··on Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor LK-99 preprint revision 2
The evidence is all the weird bits about how the paper was published, and other internet comments about the third author's relationship to the group.

The authorship of the papers is relevant to the science here, since both papers have quality issues, so I wrote out the accusation as best I understood it. The evidence is nowhere near enough to prove anything and largely rumor right now, but I do think it's suggestive.

joefigura··on Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor LK-99 preprint revision 2
Ooh, please share pre-prints if and when anyone sees one for this group
joefigura··on Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor LK-99 preprint revision 2
Scientific collaborations have gotten steadily larger over time. Groups are no longer 3 people exchanging letters, and the 3 person limitation makes no sense.
joefigura··on Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor LK-99 preprint revision 2
I just wrote a comment in another thread that's relevant here too. It looks like the first superconductor paper was released by a rouge researcher, without the agreement of the other two authors or the rest of the LK-99 group. This forced the LK-99 group to rush to publish the official paper, with a cost to quality. The LK-99 group released v2 a week later (on Saturday), and probably will continue to update it. A premature release explains many of the oddities about the two papers

The first paper submitted is titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor." It lists three authors: Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young-Wan Kwon. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 07:51:19 UTC. [1]

The second paper submitted is titled "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure and mechanism." This paper lists six authors: Sukbae Lee, Jihoon Kim, Hyun-Tak Kim, Sungyeon Im, SooMin An, Keun Ho Auh [2]. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22nd, 2023 at 10:11:28 UTC, or two hours and twenty minutes after the first paper. The second paper was updated a week later, on Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 01:53:47 UTC,

In both papers the first author is Sukbae Lee and the second author is Jihoon Kim, and in both their affiliation is given as "Quantum Energy Research center, Inc." in Seoul. The first paper posted has Young-Wan Kwon as third author. The second paper does not have Young-Wan Kwon as an author, and has four additional authors with various affiliations.

The second paper appears to have been was prepared in LaTeX, and the first paper appears to have been prepared in Word. The title and abstract of the first paper explicitly claim LK-99 is a room temperature superconductor. The title and abstract of the second paper don't explicitly claim that, though to me some of their terminology suggest LK-99 is a superconductor.

The accusation in [3] is that Young-Wan Kwon published the first paper without the consent of the rest of the LK-99 team, listed himself as third author, and left off the other four authors. The rest of the LK-99 team rushed to stuff what they had into the second paper, and released it 2 hours later [4]. This explains why there are two different papers from the same group submitted on the same day, it explains why the author lists are different between the two, and it explains why the second paper and not the first has been updated. I'm not in the field and have only read each paper once, so I'm not certain, but I'm betting it also explains a lot of the mistakes and messy bits of the papers.

This makes cautiously optimistic that this might be for real [5]. The papers on arXiv as of Monday night are consistent with a research group that succeeded in producing and identifying a room temperature superconductor using a fabrication process that is a bit tricky, and who were then forced to publish prematurely. There's nowhere near enough evidence to conclude LK-99 is a room temperature superconductor. But one failed replication doesn't prove LK-99 isn't a superconductor - if the fabrication process is finicky we'd expect to see a few dozen failed reproductions and a few successful reproductions.

Edit: Here's an appendix to bring us up to date to Monday night U.S. time. Two additional papers have been published in response to the LK-99 claims, for a total of four.

The 3rd paper is an unsuccessful attempt to reproduce the LK-99 group's results experimentally. It is titled "Semiconducting transport in Pb10-xCux(PO4)6O sintered from Pb2SO5 and Cu3P." 9 authors, all affiliated with the Materials Science department of Beihang University in Beijing. Timestamp Monday July 31st at 16:13:05 UTC. [6]

The fourth paper is a set of simulations of LK-99 that observes some similarities between LK-99 and other materials that are high-temperature superconductors. It is titled "Origin of correlated isolated flat bands in copper-substituted lead phosphate apatite." A single author, who is affiliated with Materials Science at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab in California. Published on Monday, July 31st, 2023 at 17:58:17 UTC. [7]

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

[2] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

[3] This comment was originally written in reply to: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36952499

[4] Though I don't think we know publicly whether the all authors agreed to publish the second paper, either. It seems equally plausible that some portion of the group rushed to publish, or even that one author published it independently.

[5] And by cautiously optimistic, I really mean "extremely excited and nervous, enough to stay up until 3am collating arXiv timestamps"

[6] arXiv link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16802 HN link": https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36951140

[7] arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16892 HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36951815

joefigura··on Semiconducting Transport in LK99 reproduction attempt
This comment intrigued me, so I pulled together some information.

The first paper submitted is titled "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor." It lists three authors: Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, and Young-Wan Kwon. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22, 2023 at 07:51:19 UTC. [1]

The second paper submitted is titled "Superconductor Pb10−xCux(PO4)6O showing levitation at room temperature and atmospheric pressure and mechanism." This paper lists six authors: Sukbae Lee, Jihoon Kim, Hyun-Tak Kim, Sungyeon Im, SooMin An, Keun Ho Auh [2]. Its timestamp is Saturday, July 22nd, 2023 at 10:11:28 UTC, or two hours and twenty minutes after the first paper.

In both papers the first author is Sukbae Lee and the second author is Jihoon Kim, and in both their affiliation is given as "Quantum Energy Research center, Inc." in Seoul. The first paper posted has Young-Wan Kwon as third author. The second paper does not have Young-Wan Kwon as an author, and has four additional authors with various affiliations.

The second paper appears to have been was prepared in LaTeX, and the first paper appears to have been prepared in Word. The title and abstract of the first paper explicitly claim the creation of the world's first room temperature and pressure superconductor. The title and abstract of the second paper don't explicitly claim demonstration of the first superconductor, though they use some terminology that sounds like superconducting properties.

The accusation is that Young-Wan Kwon published the first paper without the consent of the rest of the LK-99 team, listed himself as third author, and left off the other four. Two hours later, the rest of the LK-99 team stuffed as much as they had into the second paper, and released it as soon as possible.

To me that totally seems like what happened. It explains why there are two different papers from the same group submitted on the same subject on the same day, and it explains why the author lists are different between the two. I haven't yet looked in detail, but I'm betting it also explains a lot of the oddities that people have noted in the first two papers.

This also makes me way more excited about the possibility these claims are legit. The information so far is consistent with a research group that was forced to publish early, and who produced a superconductor through a fabrication process that is a bit tricky. There's nowhere near enough evidence to conclude LK-99 is a room temperature superconductor. But one failed replication doesn't prove LK-99 isn't a superconductor - if the fabrication process is finicky we'd expect to see a few dozen failed reproductions and a few successful reproductions

[1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

[2] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037

joefigura··on SpaceX Starship rocket explodes minutes after launch from Texas
Rockets always blow up on the first launch :)

It's a machine that's ~95% fuel by mass. Explosion is the default outcome, not exploding is a triumph of engineering.

joefigura··on I built an iMessage bot using Beeper
Not sure about other chat apps, but to connect to imessage they were originally using jailbroken iphones and now use MacOS virtual machines, according to another commentator. So there is a bit of additional work that would be necessary to fully replicate it.
joefigura··on I built an iMessage bot using Beeper
"There is also plenty of fun to be had: ETA Accountability Bot - when I send “I’ll be there in 10” it could follow with an accurate translation: “on average, this means I’ll be there in 13.26 minutes”."

Brilliant!

joefigura··on Relativity Space launches first 3D-printed rocket on historic test flight
3D printing a rocket would be a lot more convincing if it hadn't taken Relativity ~7 years and billions of dollars to make it to a first launch attempt. They'll probably do alright, but that's much more capital and much longer than others (SpaceX, Rocket Lab, ABL)
joefigura··on You can't tell people anything (2004)
This article really frustrated me the last time it was posted, but now I think I have a clear enough idea why to put it into words.

You absolutely can tell people things! But to tell someone something, you need to do three things:

  - Establish enough shared context that they can understand you
  - Speak about something they actually care about (or convince them to care)
  - Use a format that works for what you're trying to communicate
I've told people about technical topics in conversation or presentation plenty of times. I don't really understand how you can be an engineer and not tell people things.

The article is frustrating because it puts the blame onto the listener. But that's not how communication works! You don't have the right to just "tell people things" - you have to put in the work to be understood and to show people it's worth their time to pay attention. Communicating well is part of the job.

The author does this even in this piece. He says: "For example, with just a few magic HTML tags we could stick avatars on a web page — pretty much any web page. For months Randy kept getting up at management meetings and saying, “We’ll be able to put avatars on web pages. Start thinking about what you might do with that.”

Well yeah - if someone stood up in a management meeting and told me to think about what I might do with an avatar, my first thought would be "What's an avatar" and my second thought would be "I'm already busy with other things". He hasn't said what an avatar is or why anyone should care about them. So people pay no attention.

Then the demo shows what an avatar is and lets people see immediately how it might be useful, in a format that works regardless of the skill of the communicator. And so of course now they understand!

And maybe the thing you're trying to communicate is so novel that you can't establish context or convince people to care without showing them a demo. But at least take the time to understand why you can't tell people about it.

joefigura··on Coinbase issued Wells notice by SEC
Coinbase has been operating since 2012. The big crypto ICO wave was in 2017. The total market cap of digital assets today is ~ $1.2 billion. It's crazy for the SEC to make no regulations, allow Coinbase to go public two years ago, and now to make some vague threat to sue without actually saying what Coinbase is doing wrong.

Just because you don't like crypto tech companies doesn't mean the SEC can just not do its job.

joefigura··on Coinbase issued Wells notice by SEC
No. They aren't investment contracts. They're just sneakers.

The SEC regulates the market for investment contracts (securities). The CFTC regulates the market for commodities. The legal point is that the SEC says Coinbase is a securities market, but haven't made a specific accusation, and Coinbase disagrees. But if some digital assets are securities, then the SEC definitely has jurisdiction.

Nobody regulates the pokemon card market or sneaker market. I suppose congress could decide that it's super important to regulate sneakers, and set up the Sneakers and Exchange Comission. But they haven't yet

joefigura··on Coinbase issued Wells notice by SEC
It doesn't seem like the SEC has actually said what Coinbase is doing that is a security, or published regulations on how to determine which digital assets are securities and which are not

"The SEC staff told us they have identified potential violations of securities law, but little more. We asked the SEC specifically to identify which assets on our platforms they believe may be securities, and they declined to do so"

- https://www.coinbase.com/blog/we-asked-the-sec-for-reasonabl...

Coinbase seems to be trying their best to comply with regulation, but getting nowhere

joefigura··on Coinbase issued Wells notice by SEC
The SEC's position is that some crypto coins are securities. Gambling, hookers, political donations, and non-profit donations are all regulated.

Securities are regulated even more tightly because it's *really* easy to commit fraud and fleece people of their money by lying about investments. Capitalism works because most people trust that they can make investments without being defrauded.

With hookers, non-profit donations, political donations, drugs, overpriced art, etc., the consumer knows more or less what they're getting. Lots of crypto coins are scams, and it's reasonable for the government to regulate them

That said, as Coinbase complains, the SEC is doing a really bad job of regulating crypto securities in a usable way.

joefigura··on Coinbase issued Wells notice by SEC
And Coinbase's position is that none of the crypto assets it lists meet that test. For the coins Coinbase lists:

  - Criteria #2 is debatable
  - They don't meet criteria #3
  - Or they don't meet criteria #4
Lots of coins look like commodities. They represent a digital asset, not ownership in a common enterprise or a loan.

Coinbase believes that all of the tokens they list are securities. The SEC will need to tell Coinbase specifically what it believes they are doing wrong. At the very least, if they eventually file suit they will need to make a specific accusation.

It feels like a lot of people have knee-jerk crypto=bad reactions. But read their press release - it really sounds like Coinbase is trying their best to comply with U.S. regulation, and the regulators aren't doing their jobs.

And last - For digital assets that do look like securities, the SEC provides no way to register them, and thus vaguely implies that Americans can't own digital securities. That's not their decision to make - they either have to do their job and regulate crypto securities, or get congress to ban them.

joefigura··on We asked the SEC for reasonable crypto rules for Americans
Coinbase's position is that that ICO was not an investment contract. Not everything called an ICO is an invetment contract - the point of that SEC page is to provide guidance on when an ICO is an investment contract. Coinbase's lawyers have certainly given that document a skim, they reference it here where they talk about securities law:

https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/privacy-and-security/o...

There is a disagreement of fact - Coinbase says they don't list any securities, and the SEC claims they do and are violating securities law, without providing any specifics. Assuming the SEC goes forward, a court will have to decide.

joefigura··on We asked the SEC for reasonable crypto rules for Americans
The SEC literally approved their public listing two years ago. It's disingenuous to describe them as "an exchange for legally dubious tokens"
joefigura··on We asked the SEC for reasonable crypto rules for Americans
It's not really the SECs job to just decide that Americans cannot own many crypto assets, which is de-facto what they're doing by refusing to regulate crypto assets that look like securities. That ought to be a legislative decision - instead the SEC is making it by refusing to engage with the crypto industry
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