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joak

2,094 karma · joined September 20, 2014

Joaquin Keller

https://exaQ.ai

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/joaquink; my proof: https://keybase.io/joaquink/sigs/JJNAs8AOmBn_vMJWodh1t0SkNiU-A5IdKcVM6ZiAwSY ]

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joak··on China is building more coal plants but might burn less coal
>Easy eh. So why isn't it happening?

It is happening, that is my point. Look at the link I posted, what's being installed are 4 hours batteries on GW scale.

joak··on Yulia Navalnaya’s X account was suspended
You are right, my bad.

I should have said:

The account is not suspended (anymore). Does someone knows how long it was suspended?

joak··on Yulia Navalnaya’s X account was suspended
But now the media are flooded with the news of the account being suspended, even if it's not true anymore.

I don't think there will be wave the same amplitude saying that it has been restored short after.

joak··on China is building more coal plants but might burn less coal
Grid-scale lithium batteries are being built in Australia and California. With enough PV they are profitable today. Costs of batteries have been exponentially going down by 13% every year (halving in 5 years) for 3 decades.

They are already the cheapest in Australia, and at some point, grid-scale batteries are going to be cheaper than gas peakers everywhere.

To do baseload with solar it's easy: deploy enough PV and back that with 20 hours grid scale batteries.

Sources: https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/australia-leads-globa...

joak··on Yulia Navalnaya’s X account was suspended
Fake news, the account is not suspended.

https://twitter.com/yulia_navalnaya

joak··on Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5
Gemini 1.5 Pro is not yet released: «Starting today, we’re offering a limited preview of 1.5 Pro to developers and enterprise customers via AI Studio and Vertex AI»

Something like an alpha version.

Limited preview in their jargon.

joak··on Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5
Their 10M tokens demo is impressive though. They "released" a demo. Confusing...
joak··on Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5
«We’ll also introduce 1.5 Pro with a standard 128,000 token context window when the model is ready for a wider release»

So actually they are lagging: their 128k model is yet to be released while OpenAI released theirs some months ago.

joak··on How to copy a file between devices? (2022)
Just tried blip after reading this comment, works pretty well. Super fast and easy. Only 500dl in Android so far, wish them success.
joak··on Things we didn't know about ourselves
I dunno, the Mac Plus was there several years before windows 3.1, and lot more consistent. You must be confused...
joak··on How SSH port became 22 (2017)
Announced officially to the mythical cypherpunks@toad.com mailing list...

Fighting to legalize cryptography on the internet. PGP was banned. Sending encrypted emails was illegal...

Cypherpunks won. Thanks to them.

joak··on A seafood firm wants to farm octopus. Activists say they're too smart for that
"intelligence" is a quite imprecise term. What do you mean by intelligence, can you define?

Is chatGPT intelligent?

joak··on A seafood firm wants to farm octopus. Activists say they're too smart for that
"Sentient" is ill-defined, you can apply it to almost anything you want. From its Latin ethnology it means: able to feel or perceive.
joak··on Some Rare, Real Talk from a Utility About Competition with Rooftop Solar
Exactly, with renewables the marginal cost is zero (once the system is installed producing a kWh is free, no fuel to pay for).

And when marginal cost is zero price goes to zero as well (unless there is scarcity or artificial scarcity thanks to a sort of monopoly or cartel)

This easy to understand: imagine that A and B have invested in capacity production. If A sells at x dollars, B will sells at x-0.1 dollars stealing the market to A. Etc... there is no bottom since the marginal cost is zero.

joak··on Space Solar Power Demonstrator ends first in-space mission
Agriculture is 44% of US land, PV on an area <1% is enough to power America. And this 1% can (and should) be deployed in deserts
joak··on Tell HN: Google-Wide Layoffs
Microsoft was once on the decline and it's now bouncing back. Having billions and captive markets (by network effect) seems to help.
joak··on Why is my LG Washing Machine using 3.6GB of data/day?
Just incline your fridge a bit so the door closes on its own weight.

A no tech solution is better than a low tech solution.

joak··on A new type of jet engine could revive supersonic air travel
Paywalled alternative link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/type-jet-engine-could-revive-...
joak··on Is climate-friendly flying possible? Biden administration places a big wager
Why subsidize agrifuels instead e-fuels?!

In one case you expand agriculture which is the main cause of biodiversity loss and in the other you subsidize (zero carbon) technologies to help them start.

The agriculture lobby must be happy.

joak··on Engineers harvest clean, continuous energy from air
A kilowatt is unit of power. Joule is the unit for energy. A Watt is 1 Joule per second.

A another common unit for energy is kWh (kilowatt.hour)

A kilowatt generator can produce one kWh/h (by definition)

joak··on White House threatens to veto anti-EV bill just passed by US House
Why don't you mention "big batteries" ? These make wonderful peakers. Victorian Big Battery (VBB) in Australia is 300MW. Comparable in size with a nuclear reactor.

Thanks to the EV success, lithium batteries costs are falling exponentially. Coincidentally, photovoltaics costs are also falling exponentially.

Conclusion: regarding electricity production, fossil fuels are soon not going to be competitive, PV + batteries would be so much cheaper...

When? With the actual costs curves, in less than a decade.

joak··on Firefox for Android is adding support for 400 add-ons
I'm sticking with kiwi: Firefox is still missing the must needed "I don't mind about cookies" extension.

In Europe, by law, each time you open a page you get a weird and annoying popup saying something like: "the website uses cookies, are you ok with that?". The extension just nix the nonsense popup.

joak··on Firefox for Android is adding support for 400 add-ons
I moved to kiwi as well. Same reasons.
joak··on Altman sought billions for AI chip venture before OpenAI ouster
Conflict of interest?

This is no different than Google designing and manufacturing their own chips (TPU, tensor processing unit)

joak··on Greg (2017)
Exactly, the video is several time commented and rebuked in the subreddit. Trolls tend to be annoyingly persistent.
joak··on Greg (2017)
The second video is just a nonsense troll, if you want good level conversations and skepticism about Helion you'd better check what the fusion subreddit says about it https://old.reddit.com/r/fusion/search/?q=helion&restrict_sr...

Long story short: Helion plans a net-electricity demo in 2024 and to start selling to the grid in 2028. The timeline seems too good to be true but no one says it's impossible. Many says they have not enough publications and that there are many scientific unknowns. Failure is a possibility, success also. Given the timeline we'll know soon.

joak··on Ask HN: Why is OpenAI firing Sam Altman such a big deal?
Energy is getting cheaper by the day thanks to photovoltaics so I don't think it's a problem today.

Computer energy needs grow exponentially so at some point we will hit a wall. Hard to estimate when. Energy tech is also an evolving field and fusion might arrive some day

joak··on Ask HN: Why is OpenAI firing Sam Altman such a big deal?
This exactly what I find worrisome. They really need the money, no?

As I understand the growth of chatGPT (both in number of users and capabilities) is only possible with more servers.

I'm right now developing on top of openAI API and I wonder if it's a good idea after all.

joak··on Permitting Reform or Death
Excerpts:

- Thousands of solar farms have been successfully developed in the US with near identical EISes and ultimate findings of marginal impact, and yet every new development still has to endure the high cost and delays of yet another top-to-bottom regulatory process whose outcome everyone already knows is a foregone conclusion!

- Much of the current, and relatively modest array of green energy subsidies are wasted on the army of consultants who churn out permitting paperwork whose negative impact, in terms of trees felled to make paper, is probably higher than the project they’re describing!

joak··on Future is quantum: universities look to train engineers for an emerging industry
I might add that efficient quantum simulations would be immensely useful. So it's worth pursuing research in this area.

Results are however not guaranteed.

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