jeggers

Two issues with your calculation: (1) You are considering contiguous 9-year periods across which the 14-person sets can be applied with the 48 years + 25. Because the span of time is recorded history, and with a brief look at the Forbes list, at least 1000 years are covered... or 966 sets of 9-year periods (1000-9-25), rather than 5.

(2) Life expectancy globally across this period of time gives a much wider range.

Overall, your calcs are too narrow to disprove Gladwell's assertion. We'd have to dig more deep into the actual numbers to get the real stats to show how likely/unlikely this is.

Please re-read my post.

I don't say we are pre-ordained to be lucky.

I do say "...or you can look at this as a new economy. How will it be remade? What do you know now that will be wrong for the future? What will be right?" It is your choice to decide if you are feeling lucky.

I do say that this isn't about 20-year olds. Rather, it is about those whose mindset is not set by the old ways; those who can look at an idea/time differently and take advantage of it.

I do say that I am feeling lucky, and I am ready to look at this in a different way. History will tell if I am lucky, and I will be on the Forbes list in 1000 years.

I thought it was time I commented, since I'm the author against whom implications of being too short to understand are being drawn.

I agree luck is a component, particularly with respect to timing.

My point -- apparently nimbly dodging about your knees -- was different. Assuming a natural progression of your work ethic and intelligence, how would you act differently if you believed this was a time of creating a new economic paradigm? A time when that luck of timing was with you? What would you do differently? It is a no lose proposition to me. What is it going to hurt if luck isn't on my side?

So if, as Tony suggested, there are some fundamentals changing, we can react because we are studying them. Rockefeller and his contemporaries looked for opportunities, and acted upon them. My post was a suggestion to look -- or maybe to better fit into your paradigm -- run outside to to increase your chances of being hit by lightening.

You can think it is too dangerous or a waste of your time. Many intelligent, hard working people in Rockefeller's time didn't look either. They also did not amass his wealth.