1,026 karma · joined June 14, 2021
I'm a writer and have been thinking a lot about use case (2)—since I'm not emotionally ready for my job to be taken by AI, I'm trying to figure out how to use AI to do it better. So far, I've been exclusively considering the use of AI in the sense of the "photographers using photoshop" analogy. That is, using GPT-4 to quickly draft or edit things based on prompts, while I, the human, am still "doing the work" creatively speaking. Obviously this is feasible today and going to become normalized soon, to some extent.
However, this article makes an interesting case for (2) in a way I hadn't considered before: GPT-4 opens up entirely new ways for humans to work, period. ChatGPT already improves on Google for high-level research—ask it for a summary of some well-established topic or field and chances are you'll get a coherent and set of pretty-accurate facts cobbled together from its training data (much of the Web, Wikipedia, scientific papers). But when tools become available that let ChatGPT provide this kind of summary from my own works, notes, and prior research? That is going to totally change the game.
In the last couple years I've already seen easily a 2-3x boost in my writing productivity thanks to Obsidian, a research tool that—at least the way I use it—is entirely "manual" (i.e. not automated or "smart"). If I could get the benefits of Obsidian for making connections between information and ideas, powered by an intelligent assistant that "knows" how I think and what I think about... it's cliché to say the possibilities are endless, but that's really what I'm looking at here.
Anyway, I want to inject some optimism into this hot topic. It may end up that in 10 years we're all unemployed. But I still need to do my job today. I see a lot of reasons to be excited, rather than defeatist, for the applications and value of GPT-4 in this regard.
Having a high say-do ratio has always been important to me
I've never encountered this idea, but as soon I read it I suddenly see it everywhere. My roommate who tells me he'll clean the kitchen then doesn't; my cousin who says he'll come to dinner then cancels. My best friend who says she'll start going to the gym and never does. My world is awash in people who say the most wonderful things and then don't do any of them; it feels like a distinctly modern phenomenon. I find it hard not to resent people for this, but I try, because not everything is equally important, and not everyone can be as determined as we might like. As this article illustrates, we are ultimately only in control of our own actions.I don't know what we can even do about this. Where's the government? They don't have my back. "Competition" is a non-solution. I have one other cable provider in my area and they have all the same anti-customer incentives as Xfinity. It's legimately criminal, though obviously not illegal, since we know who pays the folks who write the laws...
But the dunking seems to overlook the genuine problems with modern dating that didn't exist in the past. I find that it's very easy to mindlessly swipe a thousand people on an app and suddenly end up with more matches than I have the energy and attention span to process. If there was an easy way to turn this "inbox" (which is really just one step above my Gmail spam folder) into an actionable database, that could have real value in a world where dating happens stochastically through apps.
Separately, it isn't weird at all to keep some sort of track of your dating life. Past generations had the "little black book," basically a romantic rolodex. I've never used one but who's to say I couldn't benefit from a digital version that lives in my phone?
Most of all, a commenter here that is since deleted said something I think is apt: "I think the number one problem with online dating is not managing all the people. It's forcing yourself to keep the number of active pursuits low enough to manage. If you don't kind of commit to seeing if someone is going to pan out, then they won't." This is of course the actual solution to the problem I experience with modern dating. The only downside is that, unlike downloading an app, it requires that I change how I think and behave.
I do agree strongly that we need opportunities for home grown talent. On the other hand, just because an American is born in the capital of the world economy should not place upon them the burden of rising to become one of its leaders. Not everyone is cut out for that, and that’s okay. As for depending on immigration, almost no American today is descended from the “original” Americans (the white ones that is), and we seem to be doing okay. Obviously past performance doesn’t guaranteed future returns, but I find reason for hope in that fact.
Begging the question, as the Wikipedia article you link explains, is a logical fallacy akin to circular reasoning: x is some way because it is x. My usage of the term was calling out this weakness in the article. I am not completely sure what the intent of your comment is and suspect you might be leaning on your awareness of this lesser-known fact as a sort of thought-terminating cliche.
To zoom out a bit, I don’t think this post even asks the right question. Why does quantity of STEM major matter, as opposed to quality? The USA is home to the vast majority of leading universities, and no amount of PISA score dominance by Chinese children can change that. If anything, China should be worried about the continuous brain drain of their best, brightest, and most of all wealthiest to Canada and the USA. Not to take anything away from the hard work and ambition of those Chinese people who wish to stay in China, but I just don’t agree that this difference in test scores taken by public high school students is any sort of leading indicator of shifting geopolitical trends.