I am the original author of the post - thanks for reading it!
I think the future of open weights models will be similar to fabless chip design companies. There will be companies that can train models and they will licence those models to inference companies that manage the APIs.
The inference companies need much less capital and the training companies dont need to divert resources from training to inference.
Some of the Chinese model training companies are already doing this and licencing their models to inference providers.