HNHacker News
TopNewBestAskShowJobs

jackgavigan

10,524 karma · joined August 16, 2011

@JackGavigan

jack [at] {$myusername}.com

submissionscomments
jackgavigan··on HSBC Currency Traders Got Greedy on Christmas
> Different financial markets have, over long periods of time, evolved standards of behavior that are not, perhaps, entirely honest in the most traditional sense of the word. To outsiders -- and to some less experienced participants in those markets -- those standards can seem shocking, even criminal. To regular participants, they can seem normal, even admirable.

Indeed, when I did my trader exams back in 2007, the regulations treated foreign exchange very differently from other asset classes as far as pre-positioning was concerned, because of the way the FX market traditionally functioned (e.g. No centralised exchanges), although I believe the regulations have changed in the past few years (i.e. after this particular incident).

It's very telling that the UK regulator presumably didn't see any grounds for prosecution or enforcement action. This is a UK bank dealing with a UK client, in the UK. There's no logical reason for a US prosecutor to be involved.

jackgavigan··on When a crow dies, the other crows investigate the cause of death (2015)
> I was already aware of the studies showing that crows recognize individual people and can bear grudges for years. I was afraid that's what I was going to end up with, but after that event, they never bothered me again, and I see crows around my house frequently.

This happened about a month ago, right? I think it's far too early to conclude they don't bear a grudge. Those crows you see around your hours are probably surveilling your habits and movements, so they can plan your demise.

It's no coincidence that the collective noun for a group of crows is "murder".

;-)

jackgavigan··on The Iraq Inquiry: Statement by Sir John Chilcot [pdf]
> It was presumably clear to those in MI6 that Blair had already decided to go to war, so what would have been in it for them to try and persuade him otherwise? Probably an early retirement at best.

It's deeply saddening to think that hundreds of people were more interested in protecting their position and pension than they were in doing the right thing. It's an astonishing failure of moral courage.

jackgavigan··on Can Topology Prevent Another Financial Crash?
CCPs can certainly help prevent a reoccurrence of what happened with Lehman Brothers, where, unlike the Treasury, the market didn't know that Lehmans net exposure was relatively small (~$6bn if I recall correctly) compared to the hundreds of billions worth of derivatives it had written, and therefore were scared that if they kept extending credit, they'd be left holding the can if Lehmans went under.

Under the new regulatory regime, a re-run of the 2008 financial crisis would have engendered far less FUD and Lehmans could well have survived. Nobody would have been scared that Lehmans' potential inability would have represented an existential threat to their firm because only the CCPs would have been exposed. (This is a gross simplification but you get the point.)

However, as the article makes clear, the counterparty risk is now all concentrated in just a few CCPs. We also don't know how the market will evolve after central clearing becomes mandatory. The markets have a habit of behaving with a certain ruthless efficiency when it comes to exploiting loopholes or opportunities created by regulation so, like the army that prepares for the last war, the new regulatory regime may not protect against emergent market risks and behaviours.

jackgavigan··on Brexit: Berlin eyes Britain’s tech talent
The UK government has demonstrated a willingness to help the UK's tech sector get the talent it needs from outside the EU by streamlining the process for getting Tier 1 visas. Even if movement of labour is restricted after Brexit, I expect there to be a huge difference in the restrictions applied to unskilled migrants versus skilled migrants. In short, I don't think UK companies need to worry about being able to bring in the sort of talent they need.

The fate of London's financial sector will depend on what sort of trade deal the UK and EU negotiate. The worst case scenario would be if the UK was denied access to the single market for financial services, including "passporting". However, the UK imports a lot more from the EU than it exports[1], so countries like Germany and the Netherlands are likely to accept a deal which means London continues as Europe's financial capital, in order to protect their own economies.

1: https://twitter.com/JackGavigan/status/747338413754331136

jackgavigan··on I set up the petition for London's independence. Here's how it would work
> "The Leave campaign has no plan" comes from the aftermath of the vote.

Specifically, this report on Sky News: https://youtu.be/2Gybrn6XLh0

jackgavigan··on The Bears Who Came to Town and Would Not Go Away
> "What can we say about a bear that is running? It has no cap, hat, or handkerchief, right?”

Unless his name is Paddington.

jackgavigan··on UK votes to leave EU
There's a decent chance that this will spur the EU into proposing a package of reforms with a view towards a second referendum. Technically, this referendum was an advisory referendum (i.e. its result is not legally binding).

If that doesn't happen, I would expect the UK to shift from membership of the EU to membership of the European Economic Area (alongside Norway and Iceland) or similar.

jackgavigan··on Russia Lights Rockets with an Oversized Wooden Match
Copenhagen Suborbitals have a good blog post[1] (albeit in somewhat stilted English) explaining how they ended up using a similar device (visible here[2] in a slo-mo video of an unsuccessful engine test).

1: http://copenhagensuborbitals.com/to-make-fire/

2: https://youtu.be/f-4n-2MtECE?t=25s

jackgavigan··on Taking the headphone jack off phones is user-hostile and stupid
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that if Apple do decide to ditch the 3.5mm jack, they'll replace it with another (presumably thinner) analog connector (e.g. http://appleinsider.com/articles/15/09/22/apple-prepares-for...).
jackgavigan··on Thinking About Smart Contract Security
> ..you could interpret the soft fork as an amendment - even though not all of the DAO token holders were asked for agreement.

DAO token holders can express their agreement or disagreement by choosing which fork they want to attach to.

jackgavigan··on An Open Letter (The DAO Attacker)
> But then also: no-one will ever trust the concept.

I think they will. In time, one of us will be proven right.

jackgavigan··on An Open Letter (The DAO Attacker)
You want to make that point. I don't care.

The attacker tried to exploit a flaw in TheDAO's code to steal its ether, not because it was designed to allow that or because that was the intent of its designers, but because he could.

Well, the Ethereum community can also do something that was neither intended nor planned for. You say that doing so would be a breach of contract. I say: Well, go ahead and sue me.

jackgavigan··on An Open Letter (The DAO Attacker)
Let me get this straight: You are saying that if the attacker has to resort to taking me to court to prevent me from forking, the DAO is dead?

I beg to differ. If those events come to pass, the DAO will be far from dead!

jackgavigan··on An Open Letter (The DAO Attacker)
Well, the attacker is welcome to try to get a UK court to injunct me against adopting a fork. How far do you think he'll get with that?
jackgavigan··on An Open Letter (The DAO Attacker)
Setting aside the question of whether the letter is genuine, the attacker is perfectly free to enjoy the ether he stole.

However, the rest of us are also perfectly free to adopt a fork if we wish.

jackgavigan··on American society increasingly mistakes intelligence for human worth
A meritoracy can reward qualities other than intelligence - integrity, talent, dedication, diligence, courage (both physical and moral), kindness, generosity, willingness to help others...
jackgavigan··on Why I think TheDAO is a Success
One that didn't teach us anything.
jackgavigan··on Why I think TheDAO is a Success
There's a good chance that all funds will be returned (thanks in no small part to the fact that the siphoned ether can't be moved on for several weeks, so that was a fortunate design decision).

The media love bad news. It's up to us to combat that negative spin.

jackgavigan··on Why I think TheDAO is a Success
Well, it flew, so one could argue that it was a success right up to the moment it ... wasn't.
jackgavigan··on Ask HN: Gracefully declining support for some major browsers?
Tightening the funnel means that potential customers are less likely to go all the way through to signing up and becoming a regular customer.

https://blog.crazyegg.com/2014/03/03/website-conversion-funn...

jackgavigan··on Ask HN: Gracefully declining support for some major browsers?
Restricting the browsers you support will tighten your funnel.

Have you profiled your likely userbase? Many businesses run Windows and are, therefore, likely to be using Internet Explorer.

jackgavigan··on Dropbox says it is cash flow positive, in no rush to IPO
Yes, his words were chosen very carefully. One has to assume that they spent a lot of money building Magic Pocket and migrating off of Amazon S3. That investment will be amortised (and the hardware will depreciate) over several years ()during which time it will show up as a cost in the P&L Account) but because the cash has already been spent, it doesn't show up in today's cashflow. Stock-based compensation also doesn't show up in the cashflow but it certainly impacts P&L.

So, while bring "cash-flow positive" means that the company's cash balance isn't decreasing, it doesn't mean that it's profitable.

jackgavigan··on A Plan for a Long-Term Stock Exchange
Me too! Which markets?
jackgavigan··on Drop the Supersonic Aircraft Ban
Or you could click on the "web" link at the top of this page...
jackgavigan··on A Plan for a Long-Term Stock Exchange
> ..it could be years before the LTSE gets SEC approval...

By the time they launch, the notion of a centralised stock exchange may well be outdated.

jackgavigan··on Secret Service Employees Punished For Illegally Accessing Congressman's Data
> ..41 [Secret Service personnel] are receiving some level of discipline.

This sort of behaviour shouldn't be a disciplinary matter - it should be a criminal matter.

jackgavigan··on A deportation at the UK border
Unfortunately, like other countries, the UK's Border Force[1] clearly has an above-average share of incompetents and bullies. If you give such people any power whatsoever, they will abuse it. Sadly, that's what happened here.

The real problem is that there is no accountability in these organisations. Even if a complaint by Rachel triggered an investigation, the culture in organisations like this is to protect their own. The worst that is likely to happen is that those responsible would be given "words of advice", which is more like a pat on the back than a slap on the wrist.

1: Incidentally, the Border Force is part of the Home Office, which is led by Theresa May, who is behind the push for 1984-style mass surveillance of the UK population.

jackgavigan··on Planned GPS outages in southern California
GPS jamming is old hat.

A lot of weapons testing takes place at China Lake (where the disruption will originate from), including missiles and guided bombs that use combination GPS and inertial guidance systems.

They're probably testing various weapons systems' ability to continue to function in the face of GPS jamming.

jackgavigan··on Inkdrop – Notebook app for Hackers
With Simplenote, you can use Notational Velocity (or nvALT) to maintain a plain text copy of your notes locally.
← PreviousPage 4 of 32Next →