itmayno

Samsung stopped mobile phone production in China since 2019. They are heavily in Vietnam.

Apple is just doing something wrong is all.

They will either leave voluntarily or be out of business at the whim of a dictatorship literally the next day. It’s just risk vs reward here.

India is the fastest growing market.

Capable manufacturing doesn’t matter when automation can be reshored, when there are shipping delays and pricing spike, when labor costs are rising fast.

Not sure why we are discussing validity of exodus when public companies have already reported mass exodus of manufacturing from China.

Agreed that it’s not exactly the same scenarios. However US is actively disengaging from China. And as far as economy parity I think that may never be as China is on a downward trajectory while US is going up. And lots of china’s numbers are fabricated.

USSR followed the same path when their citizens grumbled about liberalization. State owned enterprises are now seizing power from private companies and foreign entities. Pretty soon you are going to see replays of USSR SoE dominance such as lack of innovation, bread lines, inefficient operation, and corruption. It seems xi jing ping did not fully study the downfall of USSR after all.

If you are still manufacturing in China, you are a fool. Get ready for your factory to be seized/shut down in the next couple of years, or be taxed/fines so much that you have no choice but to leave. Or get ransomed by the local factory that you are working with (like extreme delay of products or shoddy products delivery).

A mass death event will likely happen in a city with 26 million people that most folks outside China aren’t aware of the danger..Shanghai. Shanghai has been having extreme heatwaves, the worst one in 2017 where the temperature went to 46 degrees. Shanghai is projected to be unlivable in this century.

I like how you conveniently gloss over the $100/month folks.

And the $1k/month folks are still having a hard time buying a $300k house to get married and have children, while taking care of the elderly parents. Meanwhile they know about the party princelings driving around in lamborghinis and buying fendi bags to show on social media. Oh yeah, the $100/month folks know too. And they know about the yearly flooding that kills.

You think people struggling now is going to remember the bad times before? Nope. That’s not how human natures like envy, anger and disgust works.

Alibaba isn’t just consumer facing internet technologies, look up the vast b2b stuff it does. And other types of companies have been smashed as well like evergrande or Wanda.

Also, do you really think innovation will come from state companies? In that case, why didn’t 1980 China or 1980 Russia thrive?

“ It's cracking down on private Internet companies that acquired too much power through network effects.”

Sounds like smashing to me. Smashing down on private companies and innovations. Smashing down on private wealth and power. Smashing down on freedom and growth. You can tell the dictator is getting desperate if he stops the train of innovation.

Sure some countries have some of the same problems, I don’t disagree. However, the magnitude of the problem is 10x worse for China. Remember that China is still extremely poor - 600M lives on $100/month. And another 500M lives on $1000/month. All this is the party’s doing, and the people won’t forget it. So when things goes bad like it is now for China, it will go really bad for its dictator.

Also other countries prob don’t have the problem of “what if the dictator was killed or dies early, and civil war and political struggle ensues”

The native citizens will come to HN and offer some rationalization. The non citizens will offer others. The reason is very simple. The dictator is paranoid about losing control and getting killed. Simple as that.

Long version: when you are facing internal party conflicts, alliance between US-UK-Japan-Australia-India-Taiwan-South Korea-EU which accounts for 90% of worlds wealth and war power 10x the magnitude and is against you, floods that gets worse every year, extreme heatwave that will eventually make Shanghai unlivable, delta Covid lockdowns, capital flight, demographic crisis, supply chain moving out, internal resistance from Hong Kong and tibet and xinjiang, and young generation lying flat. You are paranoid as hell and afraid to lose control so as to not get killed.

The native citizens will come to HN and offer some rationalization. The non citizens will offer others. The reason is very simple. The dictator is paranoid about losing control and getting killed. Simple as that