iross

I love the responsiveness and communication -- I'm preordering now!

This looks super promising. Two things caught my eye that give me pause:

> Save your seat for 67% off

The price listed ($89) is only 50% off the $179 listed. At $60 (~67% off), my gut reaction is "Oh that's just like an early release videogame, not bad for how promising it looks!" but $89 crosses into "Ehh, I don't know. Maybe I'll wait and see" territory.

> We are planning to launch Taim to the public in early Spring

Early Spring...2025? Is a preorder now really almost a year away?

Definitely something I'll keep an eye on though!

(edit: ope! Ignore point 2 -- I see you already updated the time to fall. Thanks!)

I've been using Zooom/2 for this for a year or two, and haven't had any complaints. http://coderage-software.com/zooom/index.html

If I remember correctly, the gambler's fallacy is for fully independent events. I think the assumption here is that the team's performance in a game will impact their next result. After a win, they get on a roll. After a loss, the coach gives them a stern talking to and they come out playing a bit harder the next night. There's some correlation between games, but I'd say it's mostly independent...

I'm not a statistician, so I can't really speak to how 'valid' the analysis is, but I'd be curious to see how it does in different tests--unless I'm misinterpreting, the biggest check so far was done on 2012, which is exactly what was used to train it. It would be interesting to see what happens if you train with half of 2012 and test the second half. Or check 2011 (do you predict an end-of-the-year collapse, allowing my Cardinals to sneak in again? ;) ).