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ip26

9,764 karma · joined September 26, 2018

thebass (at) gmail
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ip26··on Why don't people use formal methods? (2019)
It's a complementary tool that replaces certain difficult types of testing. Viewed this way, you can focus writing formal specification for things which are easy & clear to formally specify. "this returns sorted lists" is, for example, a simple property. Other examples might be the O(n) performance of your algorithm. Meanwhile, "every input can be found in the output" might feel too painful to write, so you might compromise on "the output has the same number of elements as the input". This leaves plenty of space for classical testing, while unburdening classical testing from worrying about select classes of bugs.

One other valuable part of formal methods is forcing the author to make claims about their program, and then poking holes in those claims. This process helps the author understand their own code better, and after a process of iteration developing the formal properties that are actually true, you now have a strictly-true external interface specification for the program. This is obviously most-valuable for only certain classes of code, such as libraries or services.

ip26··on The End of an Era
Discoverability starts to break for new authors when more new books are published each day than humans on the earth.

Established authors have the name recognition to compete as you say.

ip26··on Clinical failure rates over the decades: yikes
Is public perception the greater problem, or delivery? My outsider read has been relatively few diseases can be targeted right now due to payload delivery obstacles
ip26··on Clinical failure rates over the decades: yikes
Phase 3 seems closer to doing a soft production launch and finding customers completely reject it despite early focus groups liking it.

Prototypes, when they fail, are also often tweaked into something that works. A lot of phase 3 failures appear to have been complete dead-ends.

ip26··on Claude Opus 5
It wasn’t long ago at all that the chief problem was “can AI even help me with this” (cost be damned). Until a time when the answer is an unmitigated “yes, obviously”, the frontier labs have everything to lose and nothing to gain on routing, because if they screw it up you might incorrectly decide “nope, it can’t help yet” due to a poor routing decision.
ip26··on My falling-out with the rationalist community
The alternative to the rationalist one is “be suspicious of anyone who claims to know the unarguable truth”
ip26··on My falling-out with the rationalist community
It's like modeling a living cell in a computer building upon the basic maths of physics. Yes, it is a thing that is "possible". However it is not practicable to capture everything that matters and run that simulation.
ip26··on Data centers have hiked electricity prices on the public by $23B
The “affordable” housing thing seems like such a misdirection. I can’t help but daydream that some moneyed interest somewhere fans those flames, as it looks like a dead end that can absorb endless fervor.

You know what you do if you want an affordable car? You buy used. I think most people understand Ford is never going to build another a car that costs $10k brand new, and the last new car near that price barely sold because it was so stripped.

ip26··on AI boosts research careers but narrow the span of ideas explored: study
If we’re just spitballing, it certainly could be that, but it’s also obvious that publishing papers can help communicate your existing work. AI can definitely help at that, and even great work needs to be communicated.

If this same article had said “adoption of word processors over typewriters increases publishing”, would we still be thinking of the babble hypothesis?

ip26··on Modern decor may be straining people's brains
You describe it like it’s some kind of a treadmill chasing new. But if you have kids at 35, they start school when you’re 40.. were you thinking about the quality of the neighborhood schools when you bought your house at 25?

Or suppose you meet your spouse when you are 30, after you bought a house.

There’s inherently much less moving-around if you get married at 18 and have kids straight away - the plan is settled from the start.

ip26··on Write code like a human will maintain it
My assumption is somewhere in the harness toolchain there's a prompt inject that says:

    - Always sign commit messages
In which case, Claude is being given conflicting instructions, which is a different class of problem than too many instructions.
ip26··on The bottleneck might be the air in the room
Any affect from CO2 specifically seems weak. Clean air in broadly good though, and high CO2 is a good proxy for stale air. So I’m always supportive of people caring and paying attention to their air.

Along the way they’ll either learn about or accidentally mitigate other ills like radon, nitrous oxide from stoves, diesel particulate’s impact on test scores, etc.

ip26··on Farmer, marketer at odds over sales of white nectarines
The basic purpose of patents is to make it worthwhile to develop something new and valuable. They are unnatural - but useful. Working backwards, if we want people to spend time and money developing new breeds of plants, you arrive at these kinds of rules.
ip26··on How to earn a billion dollars
Regardless his actual private beliefs, one of his "jobs" is to create new unicorns ycombinator can invest in. So evangelizing startups in general and spurring new entrepreneurs is very much in his interest, and spreading this kind of mythology seems like a useful step to that end. He only needs a small number of people to buy into it.
ip26··on How to earn a billion dollars
You don't need to project to the heat death of the universe to get Facebook without Zuckerberg.
ip26··on How to earn a billion dollars
Parallel invention would like a word. Elisha Gray registered a patent for a telephone the same day as Alexander.

It's impossible to fully prove a counterfactual, but few things "wouldn't exist at all" if "that one person" hadn't done it.

Netflix is a decent example. Many people saw the coming of video streaming. We would still be able to stream videos today even if Hastings had stayed at Rational.

ip26··on Apple Core AI Framework
Infinite tokens rate-limited to 10 tok/s is 26MTok per month.
ip26··on A Farmer Donated Land to Turn into a Park. The City Is Building a Data Center
A never had the authority to contract the land as a park indefinitely ... once C owns it they own it

That's not what a deed restriction is.

are you stuck with passing that obligation forward

Generally yes. Which is why the deed restriction can affect the market value of the property.

ip26··on India's surprise baby bust
Hard to assign that a value before you are a parent though. You can only understand it in the abstract.
ip26··on Do the Hardest Thing
I probably interpret the message incorrectly, because to me "the hardest thing" is usually some class of some famous unsolved problem. The thing is, to be famously unsolved, many of the world's most brilliant people must have already tried and failed to solve it. There's a chance I have an edge they don't, but it's probably not wise to track your career path to the darkest of dead ends purely on the merits of it being particularly dark.

Example: you know what would be harder than anything we're talking about here? Quadrupling the performance of the best compression algorithms. It's hard. In fact, maybe there's some information theory that even says it's mathematically impossible. That makes it really hard, which makes it what all of us should immediately start working on.

The author writes elsewhere that you also have to have an edge, but that's frequently omitted from this "hardest thing" advice.

ip26··on Alphabet announces $80B equity capital raise to expand AI infra and compute
You’d think Berkshire would be at least passingly aware of that principle, though.
ip26··on Backpressure is all you need
Depends on the quality of your validation loop. Can the agent find the bug in a five second unit test, or does it have to run the full deployment test?

It also presents tradeoffs in compute budget. Cycles spent executing large arrays of tests could mean less tokens spent debugging.

ip26··on 'Backrooms' Stuns with $81M Debut
That's the exactly the role talent scouts fill - spot the ones that show glimmers of promise before it's obvious, and offer them opportunity.
ip26··on AI is just unauthorised plagiarism at a bigger scale
We went through exactly this with Google. People argued that once they were the only way anyone found websites, they were merely collecting undue economic rent.
ip26··on Project Glasswing: what Mythos showed us
They specifically describe that exploits are usually multiple small vulnerabilities chained together. With that understanding, it sounds like closing vulnerabilities isn't the same as discovering an exploit. Instead, you're leaving fewer small gaps behind, to make it harder & harder to put together a working exploit.
ip26··on Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI
Are you familiar with why movie theaters offer matinee tickets at a lower price?
ip26··on Task Paralysis and AI
The counterweight has been, after using it for a bunch of projects, I have internalized that it will very, very quickly get me to maybe 60% and then I'll have to take it the rest of the way mostly by myself (or handholding it tightly for the remaining 40% at a much slower pace).

In other words, the initial implementation is practically already there, already done. So there's no rush left in generating it - it's only worth bothering if I'm prepared to see it through to 100%.

When it is worth pushing through to 100%, it's pretty great for getting the inertia going though.

ip26··on Little Magazines Are Back
On the other hand, I have paperback books I loved as a kid that were my father's when he was a kid. I carefully saved them for decades. One more generation and they could be considered family relics or something. I quickly realized the flaw with this plan as I tried to share them with my kids, who cannot be expected to treat brittle middle-grade and young-adult novels as museum pieces.

I am not entirely ready to part with the books, but I'm also unable to bear watching them get thoughtlessly destroyed by my kids. Digital has made it very easy to get copies of all of them; plus others I didn't manage to hold on to.

ip26··on The AI industry is discovering that the public hates it
If companies are faced with the choice between:

- employ you at 60k/yr

- replace you with a machine that costs a lot of money, and also send you UBI of 60k/yr

It should be obvious the latter is not an option that is ever going to happen.

ip26··on The quiet disappearance of the free-range childhood
all risk comes with some small chance of tragedy

This part. I’m not going to assume what that person meant, but there’s always a few people about in these conversations lamenting that when they were six, they were certainly never hit by a car, and really you have to let your children take a few risks etc…

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