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idrathernot

91 karma · joined August 10, 2022

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idrathernot··on US Intel
I think the main counter example to this in the case of Intel is Global Foundries success after splitting from AMD. However GF had to find their own niche downmarket to the cutting edge nodes that AMD requires. So in the case of RR, it’d be like if the turbine segment gave up on SOTA aero engines and instead transitioned into electricity generation turbines (or some less sexy end market).

My personal bias is that in the long term, keeping the different divisions as one whole makes both sides less fragile in the long run.

The other problem I think you’re getting at that being on the cutting edge of a market that is extremely capital intensive is a tough sell to the banks & financiers. I feel like every industry outside of finance is increasingly squeezed out like humanity can survive on securities arbitrage alone.

idrathernot··on The reality of firearm suppressors vs. Hollywood
I purchased a suppressor for my 9mm handgun that I use for recreational target shooting. It isn’t as quiet as the movies, but the suppressor paired with a higher mass bullet makes a world of difference compared to unsuppressed. The tone of the sound is lower and lacks the deafening crack of a rounding going supersonic and makes the activity so much more comfortable.
idrathernot··on Jamie Dimon warns US bond market will 'crack' under pressure from rising debt
So why doesn’t he lower the interest rates? Money is fiat and the reserve requirement is 0.
idrathernot··on Has the decline of knowledge work begun?
Intuit is a perfect microcosm of everything wrong with the western status quo. Complete disregard for their customers, corporate focus on regulatory capture and other forms of rent seeking, product updates that reduce functionality from prior versions accompanied by price hikes.
idrathernot··on Rules to improve air quality are under attack
How many deaths would there have been if people did not have access to the technologies that create air pollution? If every CO2/pollution emitting device (cars, power plants, metal production, food processing, coal mines, etc) were all to be shuttered or massively cut back at once, deaths would increase substantially more. Yeah air pollution is bad but I think the solution needs to be incentive/reward based rather than punitive.
idrathernot··on US authorities can see more than ever, with Big Tech as their eyes
Europe has plenty of “Kangaroo courts” of their own and partnerships like five eyes encourages authorities to share information. The UK’s NSA equivalent doesn’t need to worry about infringing on an American’s 4th amendment right and technically (if you don’t think about it) the NSA has plausible deniability if the UK shares this information. And vise versa with UK citizens or any western government.
idrathernot··on US authorities can see more than ever, with Big Tech as their eyes
It’s not even that they have to “break in.” The government allows big tech companies to basically do whatever they want as long as big tech provides the government with an easy way to move forward with the parallel construction needed to bring case against literally anyone should officials be motivated to see that person imprisoned. Everything you’ve ever done can and will be used against you to maximum effect.
idrathernot··on Instagram 'Error' Turned Reels into Scroll of Murder, Gore, and Violence
I had multiple videos popping up in my feed of people dying in various accidents yesterday. Honestly people deserve more of an explanation than “oopsie”. That type of stuff is traumatizing.
idrathernot··on Building a personal, private AI computer on a budget
There is also an overlooked “tail risk” with cloud services that can end up costing you more than a a few entire on-premise rigs if you don’t correctly configure services or forget to shut down a high end vm instance. Yeah you can implement additional scripts and services as a fail-safe, but this adds another layer of complexity that isn’t always trivial (especially for a hobbyist).

I’m not saying that dumping $10k into rapidly depreciating local hardware is the more economical choice, just that people often discount the likelihood and cost of making mistakes in the cloud during their evaluations and the time investment required to ensure you have the correct safeguards in-place.

idrathernot··on A loophole used by Shein/Temu to ship packages to US tax-free (2024)
It’s not that it’s cheaper overseas, rather it’s often not available domestically at any price. People don’t realize just how absolutely gutted America’s commodity/heavy industrial production capacity really is and the whole system makes it nearly impossible to rebuild.
idrathernot··on A loophole used by Shein/Temu to ship packages to US tax-free (2024)
As a buyer of low volume metal castings from both domestic and foreign foundries that my company finishes and sells to the energy industry in the US, our customers often tout that they’ll pay any mark-up for a domestic casting. We then have to explain to them that regardless of their willingness to pay up, there are literally no domestic companies that are willing to produce this stuff, let alone at a reasonable price.

To give more detail, one casting is a low precision structural attachment that connects an heavy anchor chain to a floating buoy. This part is cast from 316 grade stainless steel in China for ~$50/ea. For GSA work in the US, we have to use the same part cast domestically from A897 Ductile Iron (a far inferior material in a marine environment) because none of the few remaining US foundries who do stainless are willing to take on the work.

Unless the government is going to take the tariff revenue, and immediately incentivize more domestic competition and investment in manufacturing infrastructure (dirty industries frowned upon by VC tech bros who have no idea where any of the physical items they rely on to survive come from) at a level greater than FDR’s New Deal, then the result is simply going to be extreme inflation and massive scarcity.

I’d love to just start a foundry making our stainless castings right here in the USA, but anyone with the time for that doesn’t have access to the funding and anyone with the funding doesn’t have the time for the lengthy payback period of building a factory. Industrial prowess in a America is basically far too gone to catch up at this point and even the high value and cutting-edge R&D stuff will fall off as we don’t have all of the legacy “heavy industrial” know how that unlocks the latter part of the value chain.

idrathernot··on OpenAI has upped its lobbying efforts nearly sevenfold
This is the problem with the software industry generally. At the end of the day it’s the hardware manufacturers that hold all of the power aka “the means of production” and America has largely gutted it’s manufacturing capacity opting to make a quick buck without a plan to incentivize investment into new manufacturing capacity. China is on a rapid path to surpassing the West even in cutting edge technologies because they also have the domestic production capacity for all of the unsexy capital intensive industrial production that feeds the innovation.
idrathernot··on Federal Court (Finally) Rules Backdoor Searches of Data Unconstitutional
I think “metadata” is meant as an example of Barnum statement in the context of the original comment. It is very common for courts to reinterpret language as a means of getting to a specific end. Same reason that “Interstate Commerce” actually means all commerce in the 10th amendment.
idrathernot··on Federal Court (Finally) Rules Backdoor Searches of Data Unconstitutional
Plausible deniability is key pillar of ensuring National Security
idrathernot··on Federal Court (Finally) Rules Backdoor Searches of Data Unconstitutional
And having a log of every conversation and keystroke that any outspoken judge has ever made gives you all sorts of ways to align their opinions with the above all importance of “National Security”
idrathernot··on Federal Court (Finally) Rules Backdoor Searches of Data Unconstitutional
Even if congress ends their blatantly unconstitutional endorsement of Section 702 spying, I still don’t see why anyone would believe that the government is going to do anything other than massively expand their ability surveil every living moment of our lives. I don’t see the point in them trying to play it off like the system has any integrity whatsoever.
idrathernot··on ChatGPT Has No Place in the Classroom
Why are Educational Institutions so resistant to anything that veers from the traditional lecturing from the textbook. You could replace references to ChatGPT with “Internet Search Engines have no place in the classroom” or “computers have no place in the classroom” and the arguments would still be all too familiar.
idrathernot··on OpenAI Fundraising Set to Vault Startup's Value to $150B
Higher free cash flow bolsters the upside case for the next raise
idrathernot··on OpenAI Fundraising Set to Vault Startup's Value to $150B
It will IPO once the “accredited investor” class have an inkling that the company has ~2 years of good growth left so they can make it past the lockup period and ride off into the sunset. Rinse and repeat. There is so much private capital out there, the only reason to go public is because retail investor folks lack the means for proper diligence & restitution.
idrathernot··on Potential terrorists can be identified from social media posts
Everyone I don’t like is a potential terrorist.
idrathernot··on Google says it is obligated to disclose confidential info to U.S. government
How many people are currently sitting in prison as a result of evidence provided to the prosecution by “big tech?” Or at least what are the stats on the frequency that such data is used by law enforcement or prosecutors in their proceedings against an individual?

I’d argue that “police work” is the most impactful aspect of Google’s value proposition as unlike with the historical investigations, near zero resources are required to compile a detailed historical profile on anyone. Just download the file and charge with everything that even remotely has a chance of sticking knowing that the accused will plea bargain to avoid a potentially lifelong prison sentence.

idrathernot··on The nation's 911 system is on the brink of its own emergency
Scare-mongering with the goal of manufacturing consent for “next gen 911 tech” which is really just just spy ware that simplifies the process for law enforcement to tap into a persons mobile camera and microphone in real time.

I’d prefer to take my chances without it but I don’t think we the people will be given much of a choice.

idrathernot··on Why don't we know how antidepressants work yet?
Without empirical evidence we basically have no evidence at all.
idrathernot··on Why don't we know how antidepressants work yet?
How is it depressing? If we waited for scientist's to fully understand the outcomes of their experiments prior to experimenting we’d still be living in caves. As long as the experimentation happens at a small enough scale, the “worst case” scenario is limited. What’s depressing is when things are scaled up in spite of an established body of evidence that such things are harmful.
idrathernot··on Gassy cows and pigs will face a carbon tax in Denmark, a world first
So now they’ll just import the meat from places with even less environmental concern.

Not that it matters as the people who support these types of broad punitive measures are mostly just virtue seeking idiots who only care about complex issues to the extent it can be used to advertise their own feelings of moral superiority.

idrathernot··on The Delusion of Advanced Plastic Recycling
Pyrolysis is dumb. It’s relatively easy to recycle Polyethylene using compression molding (google CTC Plastics)
idrathernot··on OpenAI Acquires Rockset
Not a good look for OpenAI. Shows a lack of confidence in their internal prospects to push the needle if they’re already considering inorganic growth alternatives.
idrathernot··on Apple's iPhone Spyware Problem Is Getting Worse
The problem with tech (especially software) is that spyware is often a core component of the business model. Apple spies on its users in the same way as these 3rd party tools. It’s almost worse because in Apple’s case, the users “consented” to it in the Terms & Conditions popup. At least the “spyware” company can’t throw a contract in your face when you attempt to collect damages.
idrathernot··on CO2 removal 'gap' shows countries 'lack progress' for 1.5C warming limit
I will not entertain this nonsense catastrophism until these “political influencers” lead by example and first stop using all forms of “high emission” materials and manufactured goods from their own lives. No metals, no plastic, no transportation, air-conditioning, concrete, meat, fish, etc… All of the costs associated with their alarmism do nothing but further damage the middle/working classes of society.
idrathernot··on Georgia Tech, Meta create open dataset to advance solutions for carbon capture
Let’s just ban all manufacturing, commerce and transportation in western countries while we all try to breathe less. That’s the only way win the war on carbon.
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