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hfufigivknog

-8 karma · joined March 15, 2020

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hfufigivknog··on Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
No, it doesn’t necessarily mean that. If you find a paper or expert testimony that totally unambiguously shows that I’m wrong, I will totally retract what I’ve said.
hfufigivknog··on Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
Corona viruses are not “the cold.” Rhinovirus causes the common cold and corona viruses cause 10% of cold cases. Just like other corona viruses, they make a recurring appearance. But this is not because they mutate in the way the flu does. No corona viruses mutate in the way that the flu does. If you have some evidence to prove me wrong then produce it.

You definitely develop immunity to viruses that sicken you. For the average person who is healthy.

If there is a second wave it will only be because of overly aggressive quarantining. This is why I said it won’t happen. For it to work, it would have to be air tight. All these young kids staying home are just saving fuel for a second wave. Old people ought to stay home and let younger people gain herd immunity as quickly as possible.

hfufigivknog··on Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
No actually it will be. It will be gone from the planet more or less within months. Corona viruses don’t mutate in a way that invalidates immunity gained from exposure to its ancestors. The flu does that but corona viruses do not. And there is no evidence that this one is an exception. Herd immunity will be achieved and it will stop spreading.
hfufigivknog··on Ask HN: What happens next after a successful lockdown?
The virus isn’t serious enough to warrant or motivate total quarantine so a ton of people are going to get it. Then we’ll have collective immunity and things will go back to normal. 3 to 6 months from now.
hfufigivknog··on Elon Musk Downplays Covid-19 Danger in Email to Space-X Employees
Lots of people dispute it although not professionals. I’m just trying to get the word out.

What immune deficiency did he have? I don’t know. I have tried to make many edits to my post and can’t for some reason, one of which is to addd the word “significant” before “risk.”

The link you provide doesn’t state that the virus can cause pneumonia on its own but I’ll hand it to you anyway. It weakens my point but it’s still true that antibiotics and oxygen could precede going to the icu for more serious treatment.

As for the media, they make money when people are glued to their television sets because it’s better for advertising. This is why they have a tendency to cover things that are shocking and exaggerate, although they don’t always do it. This is a widely held belief and it’s true.

hfufigivknog··on Elon Musk Downplays Covid-19 Danger in Email to Space-X Employees
His sentiment is correct. The source for what I’m saying is a veteran virologist with 40 years of experience dealing with these exact kinds of things. A two hour interview was linked from a previous HN thread.

Despite what ceejayoz might try to tell you, corona viruses do not mutate in the way that influenza does. Influenza mutates in a way that evades the immune system but retains other qualities. This is why new vaccines for the flu are always being developed. Despite the fact that corona virus family viruses are responsible for a very small amount of “common cold,” they do not exhibit this behavior. They do mutate though, which is why we are seeing two “versions” of covid-19. The ultimate meaning of all this is that once a population gains collective immunity, the virus will basically disappear. In layman's terms, the virus will go away probably between 3 to 6 months from now in the United States. If anyone tries to refute this, post actual evidence or expert testimony showing that covid-19 mutates in a similar way to influenza.

Like Elon musk points out, only those with immune system problems are at risk. This includes some people of advanced age, some people with diabetes and various other people.

The virus appears to kill people like many other similar illnesses: if the infection spreads to deeply within the lungs, gas transfer is interrupted and secondary bacterial infection sets in, commonly known as pneumonia. The treatment for which is antibiotics and an oxygen line. This is why you see Italy asking specifically for more oxygen equipment, in my non expert opinion. Both these treatments are widely available and do not require special skill to acquire or administer. Patients who do not benefit from these would require mechanical ventilation.

The fatality rate is massively skewed toward severity because of the lack of testing. If all the benign cases were taken into account, the facility rate would be much smaller although still high enough to take seriously.

Remote administration of oxygen and antibiotics, washing hands, and light self-quarantine, all very easy to do, will blunt the impact on hospitals significantly.

Overall, the threat that this virus poses to most people and society in general has been overblown by the for-profit media.

I would like to apologize for being so impolite in addressing this topic previously.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089684112...

https://youtu.be/WWNuDT4t-TM