hbd-investor

This is mostly irrelevant to AI development what you should be looking at are STEM phds, particularly in CS, electrical and computer engineering and Math

Lets see how these numbers stack up

Annual PHDS

CS: US = 2300 China = 5500 ECE: US = 2400 China = 7500 Math: US = 2200 China = 4500

Now of the US PHDS what percentage of the PHD's are awarded to students from China?

CS: 32% ECE: 35% Math: 26%

The Chinese market is this way because the people that run chinese companies have deep knowledge of actually how to make products, frequently engage in industrial espionage, and are willing do expend tons of effort just to undercut a competitor by 10 cents.

The magic is not in am i making a different widget. Its how that widget is made, what are all the machines involved in making that widget. Could i design a machine to make the exact same widget, but with reduced vibrations, 10% less electricity, and reduce maintenance by 10% while still maintaining quality?

For example

If they see a company making widgets, and this company makes them by using 10 custom engineered machines with a lifetime production run of 5 each, each of these 10 custom made machines needs to be designed by a army of engineers working for years.

A competitor in china will do espionage, the CEO's and upper management will study these 10 machines in depth, see where they could make improvements and if they see a opportunity like hey machine number 3 , 7 and 10 are designed like X, if we design it like Y we could cut electricity consumption by 10%. This will allow use to undercut their widgets for 10 cents.

The people running US corps are all business bros, and the people are lazy, they aren't interested in doing years of labor, to make a production line of 10 machines to undercut another billion dollar company for 10 cents.

If you go to your local chinatown, the chinese restaurants operate this way always constantly looking to crush their competitors, always trying to improve supply chains, always looking to cut costs and undercut competitors. Looking to cut out middlemen.

The important thing is not the product, its the machine that makes the product.

A lot of the tech in china in invisible, normal people don't buy machines the size of a pickup truck, runs on 3kv and has 500 hp motors, has a production run of 5 of these machines ever built, is custom designed by engineers and weighs as much as 4 pickup trucks.

2 companies can build the same product that looks similar and operates the same.

But they can end up with vastly different price points when you look at how the factory is designed, how these massive custom machines are engineered.

You need to keep in mind to make one product you need to design and build like 10 machines, these machines are each the size and weight of 1->4 pickup trucks, BOM's with 10,000+ components, are filled with circuit boards, sensors, takes an army of engineers multiple years etc... and the company is going to build like 5 of these machines in the lifetime of the design.

China's competitive advantage is basically this and why the products that can be made by hand aren't moving from china to 3rd world countries. They have a lot of engineers, with this type of experience and a lot of invisible tech that average consumers don't see.

Their machines that make products are not only expertly designed, maintained, but they squeeze out as much efficiency as possible in things like electricity consumption, cooling, minimizing maintenance over millions of cycles of running these machines, and pass these to consumers as lower costs. China is very competitive, if your machine making widgets isn't well designed, a competitor will design their own widget making machine that consumes 40% electricity and requires half the maintenance and then will undercut your widgets.

*Adding a note the 1.6 seconds dwell is how long it takes to cook the air to air missile. But within .2 seconds it is already blinded.

So my analysis is biased

For the ship scenario the ship needs to completely cook the missile, the missile is protected by ceramics and seeing with AESA

For the J-36 scenario the missile has a glass dome and is using a heat seeker. .2 seconds of direct laser is enough to blind it and destroy detector elements.

>Irrelevant, lasers move at the speed of light.

I don't think you understand the setup

Setup number 1 = Fighter is fleeing at mach 2 from a mach 5 missile

Setup number 2 = Ship is fleeing at 40mph from a mach 5 missile

Lasers moving at the speed of light is irrelevant, what matters is the engagement time and dwell time

engagement time = time it takes missile to hit target from 10km range (estimated range of laser effectiveness)

Dwell time = How long the laser needs to shine on a target before cooking it China's J-36 will be moving at mach 2 and blasting the missile with the defensive laser.

The ship will be doing the same. What this means is that China's J-36 will have around a 12 second window to blast the missile. The ship only has around 5 seconds before it impacts!

>THis may all be true, but the problems of heating dynamics remain. A laser cannot requires cooling times for both plane and ship because of heat, which limits the frequency it can be used.

The laser is only for defensive applications, its not going to be blasting for 10 minutes straight. It only needs around 3 seconds of dwell time to cook air to air missiles that are fired at it. The J-36 can handle this by using the heat from the laser to dump to heat into preheating its fuel.

>Dont tell me, tell the he navies of the world who have tried and failed to create lasers mounted on ships.

Because they don't work on sea - The laser is too weak, the target profile is designed to resist heat, and the engagement times are too short. While in a plane vs missile, the laser is stronger (less atmosphere and vapor), The target profile is vulnerable (Primary method to hit a stealth fighter is to use a heatseeking missile and not using a radar seeker), and engagement time is longer (Fighter is fleeing at mach 2)

Let me throw up some numbers for the 2 scenarios

1. Naval Ship vs. Inbound Hypersonic Missile

Missile: Mach 6 (1,950 m/s at sea level) carrying a UHTC ceramic matrix nose cone (2.5 cm thick) protecting an active millimeter-wave radar seeker.

Laser: 300 kW class Naval Solid-State Laser (SSL).

Engagement Envelope: Starts tracking at 15 km; laser fires at 10 km (optical line-of-sight window).

Time required to disable missile: 1.5s (tracking) + 3.8s (dwell) = 5.3 seconds

Time for Hypersonic missile to hit : 5.12 seconds

2. J-36 vs. Air to Air Missile

Missile: Mach 5 (1,475 m/s at 35,000 ft) tail-chasing the jet. Carrying a toughened Sapphire/Yttria optical dome covering a dual-band Infrared Search & Track (IRST) seeker.

Fighter Jet: J-36 fleeing at Mach 2 (590 m/s at 35,000 ft).

Laser: 100 kW class internal pulse-burst laser.

Engagement Envelope: Laser fires rearward at 10 km distance.

Time required to disable missile: 1.2s (tracking) + 1.6s (dwell) = 2.8seconds.

Total time before impact: Because the J-36 is fleeing at Mach 2, it takes the missile 11.3 seconds to catch up and hit the J-36.

Conclusion

The ship with a 300kw laser, will take 5.3 seconds to disable a hypersonic anti ship missile. The hypersonic antiship missile will take 5.12 seconds to hit the ship.

The J-36 with a 100kw laser, will take 2.8 seconds to disable a Air to Air Infrared missile. The air to air missile will take 11.3 seconds to hit the J-36.

You are wrong MiroslavPokorny

The physics change entirely when its Air to Air laser defense vs Ship to air laser defense.

There are numerous things that shift the math

1. Speed difference

The Stealth fighter is moving at mach 2 The Ship is moving at 40 mph

A fleeing stealth fighter will be able to fire at the incoming missile far longer

2. Atmospheric difference

At sea level, humidity, salt spray, and atmospheric thermal turbulence absorb beam energy, causing thermal blooming

At Sea Level: Air density is 100%. A 100 kW laser beam diverges quickly and may struggle to keep a tight focal point beyond 3 to 5 km.

At 45,000 Feet: Air density drops by 80% down to roughly 20% and water vapor is almost zero.

3. Missile types and threat profiles

The missile likely to take down a stealth fighter is a infrared air to air missile. They have glass domes that allow light and heat to enter. Thus vulnerable to getting blinded

The missile likely to take down a ship is a hypersonic antiship missile, is likely using a AESA seeker and sporting a extremely tough and heat resistant ceramic dome. You cannot blind a AESA seeker, a ship would need a hard kill and to try to burn through a missile body designed to survive the extreme heat and force of moving at hypersonic speeds at low altitudes.

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The physics change entirely, it makes tons of sense from a physics standpoint to have a defensive laser on a fighter jet to defend from air to air missiles. A laser system would prevent infrared missiles from hitting your stealth jets.

While for ships it makes no sense, A laser system can't burn through a hypersonic antiship missile fast enough and will just be a waste.

And before you bring up, muh power the J-36 has 3 engines this is why the chinese put in a 3rd engine inside their 6th gen fighter, the intent of the design was always to install a defensive laser

Lets address your claims line by lines

>It's not that solar cannot scale as is, it simply cannot scale as a power grid

Grid forming inverters have solved all your claims

>Solar is cheap if you only look at the panels and how much energy it produces. It is not cheap if you look at the whole grid, which is something omitted from reports you see.

This is untrue, the math conclusively proves your claims wrong, the solar industry produces a KWH for cheaper than any other source.

All the costs from harvesting raw material, making solar panels from raw material, building batteries, building grid forming inverters etc... are all captured. In the final cost in how much that producer sells a KWH for

Companies that operate solar panels and sell the KWH produced are able to undercut all other power generation companies using other methods.

Fossil fuels are massively subsidized compared to solar companies

Fossil fuels are subsidized by public transportation infrastructure to move their fossil fuels, special tax writeoffs, get to lease land that has oil for dirt cheap from the government. They also get special payments from the government even when they don't produce power, IMF data also shows far more direct subsidies.

Furthermore the trillions we spent on the Iraq war, and now the Iran war are being subsidized by the government that aren't being reflected in the price per KWH of a operator selling KWH generated by fossil fuels (If the oil companies had to use their own profits to pay for war). Oil companies also don't have to pay for negative externalities for exhaust fumes, and dumping waste into the water.

>Relying on China for panels & batteries for energy security?

China cannot cut off panels and batteries, these are commodities, these things are produced and sold in such large numbers that there is no possible way to track down or monitor such information.

These are not Jet Engines, nuclear centrifuges, advanced military microchips, Lithography machines, Rare Earth

There are only a handful of companies that buy rare earth, they are low volume, highly specialized (Hence possible to cut off)

While there are 1,000,000x more companies that buy their panels and inverters from china. Every single gas station, Every single convenience store, Every single grocery store, Every walmart, Every mcdonalds, Every auto repair shop, Every corporate building, Every one with a parking lot etc... would be a potential customer to buy solar panels, and batteries and install their system themselves.

They can cut off Rare Earth because theres a handful of companies in the US that can actually use them. While there are millions of companies in the US buying batteries and/or solar panels.

Once a ship leaves with 50,000 panels theres no tracking them. BTW China produces 1 billion solar panels a year!

Landfills are also a private moneymaking scam, They are owned by private companies, who will make tons of money taking in trash by the ton, then they get paid for 50 years of bogus inspections. After 80 years these private companies will go bankrupt after the owner extracted all the profits. These landfills will remain deadly for 10,000 years. There will be no company around to be liable in the future and will front the money to repair the landfills.

Pretty much all of them will be leaking in the future and poisoning the groundwater for thousands of years. Landfills don't fix the problem, they just dump it onto the humans of the future

Plasmification is cleaner than incineration

A good example is a old PCB board with Lead solder thrown carelessly into the trash

A incinerator gets hot enough to melt organics, but it won't turn the lead into gas

Instead the lead will end up in either the exhaust gases or in the ashes. These ashes will be thrown into a landfill. Over the course of 10,000 years these landfills will end up leaching this lead into groundwater supplies and ending up in our food, soil and in plants.

Plasmification on the other hand, this lead ends up encased in a slag, and will remain that way easily for millions of years. The lead atoms will be locked in a obsidian glasslike rock.

All the bad stuff like heavy metals etc... will end up in the soil for a incinerator, Organics like plastic will be broken down into their base elements carbon/oxygen/nitrogen/water

While all the bad stuff gets encased in slag for Plasmification

Their argument was NEVER valid, Penn and Teller never addressed how long this trash actually takes to break down (Estimates are as high as 10,000) years. This means for 10,000 years you would need to inspect the landfill every year, and repair it when the landfill breaks.

In actuality what will happen is that all these buried landfills will break, all the bad stuff will leak out and enter the ground water. The groundwater becomes polluted, the plants start dying. And you end up with dead dirt that nothing will grow in.

The people advocating for landfills now, are not going to be around 500 years from now to see the results of their selfish thinking.

The primary issue is that we took elements naturally found in nature and used them to create manmade synthetic material, that nature has no tools to deal with. And these manmade synthetic material will eventually break down small enough to the point where quantum forces take over (nanoscale sized particles) and enter the groundwater. And plants and animals will drink in these manmade synthetic materials the size of nanometers, and the body has nothing that can breakdown or deal with these manmade synthetic materials. Putting a piece of shit into icecream and mixing it is easy. Unmixing a icecream mixed with shit to remove the shit is scientifically impossible.

For billions of years, high-density elements (lead, cadmium, mercury, rare earth elements, arsenic) were locked away in solid mineral ores, buried under hundreds of feet of rock. Surface biology only ever encountered them as faint, background trace elements.

We mined gigatons of these ores, refined them to near-100% purity, combined them with synthetic chemicals, and packed them into hyper-dense landfill cells right above or near freshwater aquifers.

Landfills are fundamentally a temporal transfer mechanism. They take the immediate waste generated by modern high-consumption lifestyles—cheap electronics, disposable packaging, synthetic textiles, convenience goods—and bury it out of sight, converting a present-day logistical crisis into a slow-motion geological problem for future generations.

These landfills will eventually breakdown and leak, dumping microplastics and dangerous chemicals into the groundwater which in turn will poison the people drinking from wells, and will float up during heavy rains to poison the plants.

thousands of years becomes a long time, it makes more economic sense to burn it for energy, rather than performing a thousand years of inspections and repairs for every landfill

Because math is hard, american children refuse to do math

While the chinese kids study math for 50 hours a week

Math is the language of science, technology, engineering

Yup check out CHSN01 steel, China is pretty much the only country that can produce it in usable quantities.

It is used primarily for fusion reactors and for protecting superconducting pipes

LOL you are attacking strawman

Both pardoned criminals, yes Trump pardoned more criminals

Know how many criminals China has pardoned? zero they get the death penalty

China executes their criminals, in the US criminals get pardoned

All of these white collar criminals were pardoned by Biden

Nina Simona Allen (December 2024): Convicted of conspiracy to defraud financial institutions.

Duran Arthur Brown (December 2024): Convicted of conspiracy to commit wire fraud in a mortgage fraud scheme.

Ravidath Ragbir (January 2025): Convicted of wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud.

Jerry Donald Manning (December 2024): Convicted of two counts of mail fraud.

Marcus Mosiah Garvey (January 2025 - Posthumous): Convicted of mail fraud in 1923.

Alex Nain Saab Moran (December 2023): Convicted of money laundering conspiracy (released as part of a U.S.–Venezuela prisoner swap).

Abraham W. Bolden Sr. (April 2022): Former Secret Service agent convicted of bribery attempts, fraud, and obstruction.

Kim Douglas Haman (December 2024): Convicted of making false claims against the government.

Vadim Konoshchenok (July 2024): Convicted of conspiracy to defraud the U.S., smuggling goods, and export control law violations (released as part of a multi-national prisoner swap).

Paul John Garcia (December 2024): Convicted of signing false documents with intent to deceive and theft/sale of government property while serving in the Navy.

Hunter Biden (December 2024): Convicted of federal tax offenses (alongside separate firearm charges). The pardon broadly covers any federal offenses committed or taken part in between January 1, 2014, and December 1, 2024.

Gerald Glenn Lundergan (January 2025): Convicted of unlawful campaign contributions, making false statements, and falsifying documents.

Ernest William Cromartie (January 2025): Convicted of attempting to evade or defeat tax, as well as structuring financial transactions to evade reporting requirements.

As opposed to the US where even if white collar criminals are caught and punished they get pardoned by Biden or Trump, Obama, etc... Every US president has pardoned white collar criminals

trump and biden both pardoned tons of white collar criminals

There are 2 types of events

For Building projects that were canceled the little people got full refunds

For Building projects that were resumed with the govt footing the money for their completion. People who bought apartments did not have their mortages canceled, they were forced to pay their mortages and will be receiving their apartments when completed.

So yes the little people did get bailed out. The government is footing to continue the housing projects while maintaining the terms of the mortages.

In the US, we saw all the people who could no longer pay their mortages because of interest rates skyrocketing lose everything.

We saw Federal marshalls marching into homes, and throwing crying people out, we saw crying people who have paid hundreds of thousands being thrown out into the street. In the US real estate crash, if you took a ninja loan and the housing crash happened, the banks suddenly demanded higher interest rates and you couldn't pay your house was foreclosed and all equity wiped.

These are all confirmed facts

In the US many little people lost their equity and were thrown out of their homes, many lost hundreds of thousands of dollars as they defaulted on loans and had their property siezed.

In China none of the little people lost anything

The buildings that were canceled the little people got full refunds The buildings that were continued thanks to cash infusions by the government the little people will get their homes when it is finished.

The only person spreading propaganda is you.

This statement for example is a complete disinformation because you did not acknowledge that the chinese govt gave cash infusions to these stalled projects, and mortage payers will get their apartments

>Nope they didn’t. They refuse to let citizens cancel the mortgages even though developers haven’t delivered condos for years and they haven’t bailed out the little folk.

You are aware that ASML is a small company prior to EUV?

And they only allocated a small number of employees and resources to bring their first EUV machine to market?

ASML had 7,685 employees prior to their EUV success (Including contracts), of these 7,685 employees only 2500 were engineers. ASML put half of these engineers to develop the NXE:3100 and they only spent 10 billion dollars.

So total resources = 1250 engineers, 10 billion to make EUV a reality and 13 years.

So yes the complexity and difficulty of EUV machines is vastly overstated. The amount of resources spent on it is coins found in couch cushions to huge mega corps.

China has already beat Russia in jet engines,

Russia does not have a 5th generation engine core in even the validation phase.

China has a 5th generation engine core the WS-15, it has not only passed validation but is currently in mass production.

A true 5th generation engine core allows true supercruise

You can see the gap between the F-22, J-20 and Su-57

The F-22 supercruises from mach 1.5 -> mach 1.8 (This is because they have 5th gen engines, and is it burns its fuel stores)

The J-20 supercruises at mach 1.4 -> mach 1.8 (This is because the J-20 has a much larger internal fuel load, vs the F-22 as it burns this fuel it speeds up)

The Su-57 super cruises at mach 1.3 -> mach 1.5 (This is because it has a 4th gen engine, the actual 5th gen engine intended to power the SU-57 is stuck in development hell the Izdeliye 30 (or AL-51F1) so Russia put a souped up 4th gen engine inside the SU-57 the AL-41F1 which is the same core as the AL-31F. If they do complete their 5th gen engine the SU-57 is expected to supercruise at mach 1.8-> mach 2.0 as it burns up its fuel. Su-57 accepts more stealth penalties in exchange for superior aerodynamics.

They bailed out the little people and jailed the CEO's.

What happened was these companies went into massive debt building buildings based on the belief that real estate prices would increase forever infinitely.

The Chinese govt popped the bubble.

These real estate companies went bankrupt, many of them took payments from retail for apartments that weren't built.

They arrested the CEO's and upper management, siezed and sold their assets.

But the people did get bailed out by the government, all the little folk who bought apartments were refunded or had the construction project finished by the government.

You do realize that your quoted figure of 15 and 55 million deaths, came from looking at population figures and assuming that everybody Pre great famine would have the exact same number of children and those children will have the exact same number of children as the starting point.

And is just pure nonsense, might as well claim that the US killed 548 million people, because in 1957 the US population was 172 million and had a TFR of 3.62 , assuming that trend held we would be at 720 million in 2026

This is misinformation China has not stopped publishing unemployment data

They stopped publishing Youth unemployment data, Youth unemployment data is categorized as age range 16-24 and currently not enrolled in education.

The reason why they stopped publishing this data was because it was extraordinarily high. This is due to the large number of engineers, technical graduates, and China's large numbers of high tech companies.

This is because technical/high tech interviews aren't 1 day things especially in china, but they take months and have 5+ , 10+ rounds of interviews and examinations. In the technical world you can't just say I know Abelian groups, C++, CFD, etc... They need a senior engineer to test and grill you, they need to give you actual problems and see how you approach and tackle them.

I think its the other way around AI would certainly have better accuracy than a human, AI can see things pixel by pixel.

You can take a 4k photo of anything, change one pixel to pure white and a human wouldn't be able to find this pixel by looking at the picture with their eyes. A machine on the other hand would be able to do it immediately and effortlessly.

Machine vision is literally superhuman, For example Military camo can easily fool human eyes. But a machine can see through it clear as day. Because they can tell the difference between

Black Hex #000000 RGB 0, 0, 0 CMYK 0, 0, 0, 100

and

Jet Black Hex #343434 RGB 52, 52, 52 CMYK 0, 0, 0, 80