gzu

These experts are looking for the biochemical proof of why it's so contagious.

That's not needed to make judgements on why this virus could be spread easily.

I'd bet by the time we get definite scientific proof of the mechanisms, the every city in the country will have outbreaks.

see point 3

So are temperatures in the human respiratory system. It’s foolish to just assume warmer temperatures will stop it.

It's really not hard to grasp why it would spread quickly. This virus harbors in the respiratory system of an infected patient. The viral infection invades cells and releases more of the virus.

This is so contagious because:

1. Everyone breaths in nearly 8000 liters of air each day

2. Virus are so small that they stay suspended in air for a while, some estimates are 30min (think how smoke stays afloat)

3. We have no innate immunity to this novel virus

Those were futures the night of the election...

Futures have a hault at 5%

Normal trading hours have the 7% stop

lewis turning point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_turning_point

The inflation has been offshored. China's rural population has been lifted out of poverty. What happens to the world economy when china runs out of cheap labor?

The overwhelming theme of social media is propagating envy. Look at this amazing vacation, look at how handsome I am, look at this happy family with baby and wedding photos, look at all my money, look at me landing a great job, look we just bought a beautiful new house.

How can one be content with your own life if you're constantly comparing yourself to everyone else. Removing images and video might go a long way.

I can't wait for the day we see "deep-dream" styled literary works.

The T480s has so much better build quality. Its all metal vs T480 which is plasticity and soft touch. Not sure why you would choose T480 unless you REALLY need > 24gb ram or giant extended battery.

Even the inside is better built. The plastic front clips of the T480 backplate break super easily, whereas the T480s has replaceable clips.

Yet China continues to expand use of coal power and mining their vast reserves in the western part of the country.

Take a look at balance sheets. Price to Book ratio has been growing on major company names. Book value is the equity remaining after assets - liabilities. Assets are dwindling/remaining constant and liabilities are growing due to debt funded buybacks. There will be no equity left many big names in the public markets due to the debt load.

It’s all a big wealth transfer game. The entire world is along for the ride hooked on index funds owning enormous stakes in these large companies and will be left with the bag in any downturn. No downturn can ever happen now and everyone knows it, especially the Fed. The current system can never correct otherwise it would implode. CEOs are exploiting this fact to full potential and will be gone/dead before any consequences arise.

Also this Nadella period coincided with a massive rise in passive investing and buyback of shares.

Investors are buying the stock because it’s one of the largest in the indexes weighing in at nearly 5% of the SP 500 market cap. Because of passive investments and mutual funds trying to match passive (index) returns, a nickel of every dollar invested in the stock market goes directly to buy Microsoft without any human consideration.

Maybe then someone smart would come up with a device that would route all 5G traffic through and broadcast to other devices, masking the source and even proxied through a remote server /s

LTE seems plenty fast enough for typical phone usage. Not sure how much 5G will improve mobile experience in the near future without massive advances in VR.

Is all this telecom positioning to setup a replacement for landline internet service?

Yet somehow our consumer price index shows inflation rising at only 2%

Why does it have to be just a recession with rebound a few years later? I’d argue many are thinking too positive following 2008 where everything will go back to normal and prices will rally to all time highs. The US economy almost blew up into a full blown depression in 2008. The Fed swooped in to save the day. Can the Fed do that again indefinitely with not only US but potential problems worldwide?

The global economy is reaching uncharted territory now with the amount of debt and negative interest rates.

Maybe a depression like 1930’s are a relic of the past once we decoupled from the gold standard. Central banks today have full power to devalue currency indefinitely in order to maintain the financial status quo.

Perfect way to eliminate the competition via regulatory lock out

It’s a huge stretch to say the S&P 500 isn’t the current top 500 stocks by market cap just because they don’t include several recent IPOs and have discretion to exclude stocks based on potential stock manipulation. These are very rare cases that have little affect on the overall index. In time (not instantly) they add large established companies. Proportions are always weighted directly to market cap percentage. They’re not weighing some stocks higher than others like how an active manager would allocate.

Agree “beating the index” is quite a joke since that is the benchmark for fund performance and so much money is passive invested now. Matching the index performance is saying “our fund equities have appreciated on equal basis to how all others have”.

The S&P 500 is basically a group of largest established 500 market cap stocks traded in the US proportioned to market cap. There is no active management determining price and weights here.

He is saying when people exit and index sells all their stocks equal to current market cap rankings that the opposite side of trade buy demand for all those won’t be equal. Bad stocks may go down further than solid companies. A shift in value vs growth preferences caused by the downturn itself could be the cause of that. The entire index and all holdings would then HAVE to readjust for this discrepancy and lead to more forced selling of bad stocks and buying of solid companies creating more liquidity crisis.

I believe this is related to the rise in buybacks where price fundamentals no longer matter, only goal for companies is to get the largest market cap as possible ignoring long term risks in order to attract an increasing flow of passive money being poured into the markets.

His point about the increase in volume leading to price discovery is laughable. More algos than ever are trading with each other on the subsecond scale but that means nothing for long term equity values. With the rise of index tracking there are fewer than ever investors actively positioning themselves against a standard indexed allocation by picking good and selling bad stocks. Indexing is riding the boat buying everything in equal components due to market cap weight.

The fed had for years engaged in massive bond buying (QE). That has reduced supply of government paper and therefore reduced yields on the bonds.

Big news should happen this afternoon. Trump will probably wait until after market close. Monday might be brutal

Thanks for the link! My take from that is the bubble is even worse than I thought. I didn’t realize the capital appreciation part and how sensitive long term notes are to rate changes. It seems to more or less work on the greater fool theory between central banks and investors. The intrinsic value held within the bonds is not there and where is the stopping point on the negative side? There’s a discrepancy between Central banks lower rates and bid up bonds through QE so bonds rates are continually on the decline and investors use that rate lowering for returns when bonds appreciating in value.

The amount of compounding leverage here between all parties would mean the system would implode if bonds went the other way for a longer duration. Maybe this threat of implosion only further accelerates lowering of rates as there is no alternative and even systemic deflation risk.

I’m starting to entertain the idea of a massive bubble in bonds. Is inflation really never going to show again? I can’t understand why anyone would want to hold a fiat currency for 30 years for no return.

Is it due to portfolio theory where the assumption is stocks and bonds yields have inverse correlation and the way to manage risk is to have a correct ratio? Due to global QE there is too much money floating without enough to invest.

What’s the alternative to equities and/or bonds

Will be excited to see if it uses a re-vamped game engine. KSP 1 is based on Unity and bottlenecks at single core cpu.

In practice it does increase market cap because constantly buying back shares increases PE multiple growth which then makes the stock then sell at a higher valuations since they are showing (artificial) growth. The long term stability of those buybacks isn’t taken into account with valuation models.

Every new dollar put into index funds gets invested proportionally in each company to the market cap of SP 500. Microsoft gets bid nearly 4.5c on every dollar. The top 10 stocks combined get 25c on every dollar.

There’s now also moral hazard too with the rise of indexing and retirement. They need to keep the WHOLE stock market up. Many fewer investors now do any research and chose companies based on fundamentals. The companies that exist today must exist forever into in roughly the same proportions to keep SP 500 index from falling too heavily.

Companies exploit this relationship now by destroying their balance sheets and using buybacks to boost their relative market caps vs other companies to capture more passive investment money flow.

There’s a good argument (elsewhere) that because vanguard of we’ve entered a pseudo communist market system.