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gspetr

992 karma · joined August 4, 2015

Georgios Petronius, self-employed, engineer, small business owner.

I never dismiss anyone's claims. I simply say that if there's evidence that you have - let us see that evidence. But assertions are often made not only without any evidence being offered but without anyone even asking for evidence.

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gspetr··on Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends
A ton of celebrities pledged to leave if Trump got elected.

Well he did.

Yet, almost nobody kept their oath.

And it's not like they stayed on and took up arms either.

And if you don't want people to leave, then that automatically means you are very pro-border, because if these economic migrants are to be denied, then all undocumented migrants everywhere should be denied, by virtue of being people who did not fight hard enough to improve their lot in their country of origin.

gspetr··on Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends
Depending on where you do it, it might go down about as well as this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDnvXAkMnx8

(Die Hard: With a Vengeance (1995) - Bad Day in Harlem Scene)

gspetr··on Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends
Stayed?

Khodorkovsky hasn't stayed after he got out.

And Navalny overplayed his hand. It appears he really thought it was about him, not the movement he had created, otherwise he'd have had his wife run for office, which is what wives of those arrested in Belarus did.

gspetr··on Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends
>Recall that Russia exited nuclear arms treaties and controls

From game theory stand point that is the only course of action to maintain MAD.

If you're falling behind in drones and high precision weapons, it would be very disadvantageous if everyone went nukeless.

gspetr··on U.S. firm Cogent cutting internet service to Russia
They do:

https://scooptrade.com/mintsifry-called-for-stimulating-the-...

gspetr··on Tell HN: If You Are in Russia
The Federation is not the entire world, there were at least 4 more entities of that level who were distinct, and weren't particularly keen on joining the Federation.

Star Trek: Birth of the Federation captured this quite well in its endings representing Loss, Allied Victory, Domination ( 2/3 of the galaxy controlled) and Total Conquest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A8N1N-dREc

Contrast this with the Cardassians: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fy_RbUKsaj0

gspetr··on Tell HN: If You Are in Russia
Production of opium and its derivatives before it was under US control and after.

These are the only 2 numbers you should look at.

gspetr··on Tell HN: If You Are in Russia
>What was senate thinking

This is not comparable to how one gets elected to an upper house in most countries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_council_of_russia#E...

These are rubber-stamping yes-men of a single party state, obedience is the only thing required, thinking is not involved.

gspetr··on Tell HN: If You Are in Russia
2 developers I'm in contact with are moving from St.Petersburg to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladikavkaz

and then to Georgia even as we speak, 1 by train, another by plane.

gspetr··on Tell HN: SWIFT is not a payments transfer system
Let me address the last paragraph of your comment.

Vast? No. Majority? Most likely.

You do not need to take my word for it, you can look for 1st hand accounts from people who were P. election observers from the opposition.

I'll at least agree that nobody believes that the party in power had the majority votes nationwide in the 2 most recent national elections.

As for the current events, most recent official (official being the key word here) nationwide polling shows 68% support for the "special war operation", which I do not believe for a second, considering how many have either relatives, friends, or at the very least business contacts across the border.

gspetr··on Maersk, MSC halt container shipping to and from Russia
No worries, 21st century got you covered!

Russia + Ukraine combined amount to some 25% of global wheat export alone, not to mention how global fertilizer prices will skyrocket in the months to come, causing prices to increase for a lot of food products down the line.

gspetr··on Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Feb 26, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwynHUEPo54&list=PLR1VVi2S5x...

"NBC CAUGHT Spreading Literal Nazi, Deep State Propaganda | Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar"

Not a fringe or right-wing source, especially considering their position among Spotify political podcasts.

gspetr··on Cut Russia from GitHub due to invasion of Ukraine
Mainstream media figures are buddy-buddy with G.W. Bush, so what are you talking about?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ellen-degeneres-defends-george-...

gspetr··on Cut Russia from GitHub due to invasion of Ukraine
The presented "solution" isn't one at all, see Iran.
gspetr··on Cut Russia from GitHub due to invasion of Ukraine
What is the point then?

White collar workers just flee the country: See Venezuela, Iran, etc. Even Russian Revolution itself is an example of this trend.

When white collar workers become "inconvenient" they get purged as enemies of the people. See Pol Pot's reign of terror in Cambodia. He had brutally purged roughly 25% of his own population, far more in relative numbers than Stalin, Hitler or Mao did, yet he still had been in power for decades, even after Vietnam invaded after massive refugee crisis.

Iran had violent protests in the past few years, but the protesters just got killed and that was it.

gspetr··on Misidentifying talent
The article omits any discussion of this point, that is why I asked the person familiar with the field whether they have insights to share.
gspetr··on Misidentifying talent
>there would be no women Grandmasters.

Why bother commenting at all without bothering to put in effort for even a cursory search?

There are 39. Including 2 last year. Full GMs, no prefixes.

gspetr··on Misidentifying talent
That depends on your definition of good money.

I've heard Ben Finegold say that 30 years ago only about top-30 could make anything resembling a decent living in a developed nation, while nowadays, even adjusted for inflation, the prize pools are much bigger and one of the biggest chess channels on YouTube is a player who's not even a GM.

gspetr··on Misidentifying talent
What's fascinating to me is that the article makes no mention of female performance in chess whatsoever, which has historically been underwhelming compared to men, seeing how the strongest female player ever never made it into even top-4 of the Candidates tournament, let alone played for the Championship.

Since height and athletic ability plays almost no role in chess, can you perhaps explain why women have underperformed?

Also, I have no idea why WGM (Woman Grandmaster) title is even a thing, since I cannot possibly think of a more discriminatory "consolation prize" type of title in a field where men don't have an inherent physical advantage. Curious to hear what is your take on this as well.

gspetr··on An expert on civil war issues a warning about America, but exaggerates
>In Romania thousands of unarmed people stormed the seat of government and that led to the overthrow of the government.

Wikipedia says[0] it was "the only violent overthrow of a communist government". Violent does not sound unarmed to me, since punches and kicks only take you so far.

"As anti-government protesters demonstrated in Timișoara in December 1989, he perceived the demonstrations as a political threat and ordered military forces to open fire on 17 December, causing many deaths and injuries. The revelation that Ceaușescu was responsible resulted in a massive spread of rioting and civil unrest across the country.[3] The demonstrations, which reached Bucharest, became known as the Romanian Revolution—the only violent overthrow of a communist government in the course of the Revolutions of 1989"

[0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolae_Ceau%C8%99escu

>The U.S. is not the most militarized government in the world.

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2021/07/the-united-states-spends-m...

>It’s fascinating that you think Republicans jurors are not a thing in D.C.

It is a thing. It's also a thing that an average Republican in Texas and an average Republican in NY or DC are not quite the same. Even if we put forward the very unlikely premise that they are super MAGA Republican, peer pressure is a thing. Simply going by the numbers, chances are a significant chunk of their friends and family are Democrats, and it's not like an average person can easily hide they were on a jury. Also, consider how many juries there would be for that many defendants, will no one be convicted?

gspetr··on An expert on civil war issues a warning about America, but exaggerates
>Mass manipulation is quite cheap and easy in the age of Facebook. You don’t think this occurs?

"Cheap and easy" != effective.

The alleged Russia intervention appears to have been on the order of several hundred thousands of dollars worth of Facebook ads. The exact figure differs depending on what sources you read, but a Pres. election operates on the scale of billions, not < 1M.

And if it is so effective, how come Mike Bloomberg, who spent some $560 Million on his election campaign, had nothing to show for it? Surely he could have hired all those Russian political campaign savants with that much money, no?

>Don’t like the result of a Presidential election and you have an army of fanatics willing to assault the Capitol then you may have them do so with impunity.

An army of... unarmed fanatics? The wanna-be insurrectionists killed nobody, there were no weapons brandished in the Capitol. Do you want people to take seriously a claim that around a 1000 unarmed men are enough to overthrow the most militarized and powerful government in the history of mankind?

The Feds were also well aware of it, just type into any search engine "NYT Jan 6 informants".

>Republican jurors

Republican jurors in DC, that voted 93% for Clinton in 2016? Really?

This is the line of thinking that lead good people, but who consumed too much media, to believe that Jussie Smollett really was really assaulted in the dead of night in very blue Chicago in freezing temperatures by Trump supporters with a noose and bleach, yelling "This is MAGA country". At some point you have to rely on Occam's Razor and start questioning the most basic of premises without being afraid of appearing a conspiracy nut.

> Capone was never charged with murder.

Yes, but those who carried out his orders were. And if a murder takes place there's a body, or if the body was moved or disposed of, there's at least evidence of struggle or evidence that the victim was at the crime scene. And there is also evidence that the criminals were at the crime scene at the time the crime itself took place.

gspetr··on An expert on civil war issues a warning about America, but exaggerates
>Russia and others have done a great job at sowing dissent.

This has been debunked by non-corporate journalists like Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi, etc.

After 1.5 years of investigation, unlimited subpoena powers and 10s of millions of dollars spent, nobody can name 1 american citizen who has been convicted under the original premise of the Russiagate, which was criminally conspiring with the Kremlin to interfere in the 2016 election.

EDIT: While we're at it I'll also address this comment you've made: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29776626

>Regardless of whatever happened in the past the fact remains that the government was almost overthrown on January 6 and the instigators (the top leaders) have not been brought to justice.

700+ people are charged with crimes associated with Jan 6. Not a single one, not one has been charged with insurrection, inciting an insurrection, attempting to overthrow a government, sedition, treason, etc.

They're all just common crimes: Trespassing, violent assault for the ones who used violence, interrupting government procedures/processes, etc.

If this was an actual insurrection, or a seditious act, or a coup, why is the Justice Dept. under the control of the Biden administration, not William Barr or Donald Trump, not charging anybody with those crimes that are alleged to have taken place?

Why are they charging them with common crimes that happen at protests and riots instead?

Could it be because that was all that event was?

gspetr··on An expert on civil war issues a warning about America, but exaggerates
>oops, you used the term 'TDS' in another comment. The jig is up

TDS is a term also used by actual, you know, leftists. Like Bernie voters:

https://www.reddit.com/r/WayOfTheBern/comments/ext4tn/bernie...

I've seen plenty of people on the left on social media also use "Let's go Brandon", do you think those are trolls too? Just because they don't believe in "the lesser of two evils" which leaves them unrepresented in politics?

gspetr··on An expert on civil war issues a warning about America, but exaggerates
>Muslim ban

You do realize Biden recently banned travel from 8 African countries?

>"build that wall"

Type into any search engine "kamala harris says do not come"

The irony here is off the charts.

gspetr··on YouTube to remove content that alleges widespread election fraud
The problem is that YouTube explicitly promotes "credible and authoritative" news sources, but these are the same sources that tell you:

Case 1: Leaked Podesta emails and CNN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjDLcvOB1og

"It's illegal to possess these stolen documents. It's different for the media. So everything you're learning about this, you're learning from us."

Learning from us, get that?

Numerous legal scholars weighed in on that hot take, just one of the examples.

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/law-prof-smacks-down-cn...

Case 2: Washington Post calls ISIS Leader al-Baghdadi "austere religious scholar"

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/washington-post-headline-abu-...

So here we are, being told by YouTube that sources calling the leader of the world's most vile and brutal organization an "austere religious scholar" and deliberately misinforming public about what they can and cannot read are called "credible and authoritative sources".

When your supposedly single reliable source of truth (the media) is so obviously and shamelessly biased, how can you not question the source of "truth" and those who suppress other viewpoints?

I'm reminded of a seemingly prescient quote from 1999's Alpha Centauri:

https://www.quotes.net/mquote/2347

"As the Americans learned so painfully in Earth's final century, free flow of information is the only safeguard against tyranny.

The once-chained people whose leaders at last lose their grip on information flow will soon burst with freedom and vitality, but the free nation gradually constricting its grip on public discourse has begun its rapid slide into despotism.

Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."

Commissioner Pravin Lal, "U.N. Declaration of Rights"

gspetr··on Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
No, but the reason is less important than the pros of this outcome.

Would you condemn a man who saved a child from a burning building because he wanted his 15 minutes of fame and not because it was the right thing to do?

I'm deliberately using a hyperbole to emphasize a point, but there's also a much more recent example of statue destruction: ISIS has destroyed a lot of statues. Is this the company one should keep?

Note that when statue destruction is normalized, broken windows theory kicks in and statues of prominent black civil rights activists[0], Lincoln, Mahatma Gandhi[1], etc. get vandalized as well. I think very few people would agree that Gandhi (I'm not a scholar of history, but I've seen many people referencing him as arguably one of the most virtuous people ever) deserved this.

[0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/16/freder...

[1] https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/11/twelve-stat...

gspetr··on Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
The Nazi concentration camps still stand. Furthermore, when people vandalized Auschwitz's notorious "Arbeit Macht Frei" (Work sets you free) sign[0] it was restored.

If even Jews wish to preserve the concentration camps for the significance of historical mistakes for humanity that they represent, what does it say about those who wish to destroy history elsewhere?

"Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it".

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbeit_macht_frei#Thefts_of_Ar...

gspetr··on Biden wins White House, vowing new direction for divided U.S.
> core Republican positions: support of free trade and being against protectionism and tariffs

This is not the case, as (or at least has not been since Reagan) there have been 2 main tools of regulating/restricting foreign imports by Republicans: Tariffs and Quotas. Both have different tradeoffs.

Reagan was heavily in favor of quotas instead of tariffs: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/i-am-a-tariff-man-com...

Reagan CEA economist Steve Hanke added:

“the share of American imports covered by some sort of trade restriction soared under ‘free-trader’ Reagan, moving from only 8 percent in 1975 to 21 percent by 1984.”

gspetr··on Mongolia to restore traditional alphabet
>I think it is important that the system they are changing to is better for Mongolian people, not tourists.

This very charitably assumes that this is the will of Mongolian people and not just the will of the government.

Nowhere in the article does it mention that there was a referendum on this, and I am certain that almost anyone on HN would agree that one is necessary for a change as serious as this, upheaval of the language itself would have very serious consequences that could potentially last centuries.

gspetr··on Mongolia to restore traditional alphabet
>Why not architecture, or dress, or food

All of these have a very limited use as a means of conveying information, mostly because the medium itself is static.

> or religion?

Funny you would mention religion. Christianity, Islam and Judaism mention the tower of Babel or something similar to it, implying that splitting the humanity into many languages was God's punishment for defiance.

"6 And the LORD said, Behold, the people is one, and they have all one language; and this they begin to do: and now nothing will be restrained from them, which they have imagined to do.

7 Go to, let us go down, and there confound their language, that they may not understand one another's speech.

8 So the LORD scattered them abroad from thence upon the face of all the earth: and they left off to build the city."

If we are to believe this, then returning to one language for the entire humanity would simply be a return to our most natural, original state as was meant by our creator.

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