Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends
economist.com
economist.com
The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy.
I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need one to continue working as a remote dev for US companies. Older generation (who are pro-Russian) suggested being careful around young people as they may be hostile to Russians, even those who are running away from Putin.
A lot of my IT friends have fled the country, almost everyone who could. My heart is bleeding thinking of friends who wanted to leave on March 9, not sure what they can do now.
Yes, starting from now, protesting becomes more risky (you may go to jail for years if you get caught second time). But just a week ago, it was mostly harmless (yes, some people get arrested for few days, but will anyone say it's comparable to what's going on in Ukraine?).
And from these 5% who go out now many (including myself) were not protesting in 2014.
So to be honest I cannot see how we are not responsible.
[Edit] 95% is a VERY conservative estimation.
[Edit2] And of course people from other countries are also responsible for crimes which their governments are or were doing (many of these crimes resulted in many more deaths than this conflict yet - hopefully it will remain so). So don't feel good about yourself guys.
Blueprint for Revolution: How to Use Rice Pudding, Lego Men, and Other Nonviolent Techniques to Galvanize Communities, Overthrow Dictators, or Simply Change the World
It proposes many interesting strategies and ideas on how to protest in dictatorships. Be subtle, use humor and focus your message on the most common people. Don't call for democracy, free speech or anything like that. You will be branded as foreign forces. Find something every Russian believes in like peace or the brotherly bonds between Russiand and Ukrainians. Pick small battles to win first.
I personally lost any hope to change it one year earlier after participating in pro-Navalny protests. Now, I just don’t want to have anything in common with this government. I’m choosing another one. And I’m not going to pay taxes to Russian government anymore
Even one arrest record is enough to be disqualified for or complicate any visa or moving abroad plan :(
The sanctions in Russia could build resistance to the war in Russia, but they could also backfire if the Western governments do not set reasonable criteria for removing the sanctions. So far they have not indicated how to end sanctions.
If Western governments will only remove sanctions if Putin is thrown out, than I fear that there is little chance the war will end soon. The Syrian sanctions will never end without regime change so the sanctions are purely punitive.
If it is true that a Russian should have protested and gone to prison, in order to avoid Putin starting this war or the next war - isn't it also true every human is somehow fractionally responsible for not having tried to assassinate him? Like, how could that even work? To what degree are nationals responsible for the actions of their leaders? And when they fail to act, how should they be punished for it?
I'm proposing we still have a significant flaw with our international agreements and institutions intending to preserve international peace. Because there's a lot of mistakes that have been made since WW2. The recent events in Ukraine tell me that despite being flawed, we need these institutions more than ever or we're absolutely going to blow up the world again.
And one of those flaws, in my opinion, is the permanent security council veto power. It is not much security or a counseling, when permanent members can violate the charter and veto resolutions trying to hold them accountable. The U.S. has done this, and so has Russia. Two wrongs don't make a right and all that, and the various violations aren't even comparable. We should hold Russia accountable, but we cannot forget the Treaty of Versailles when figuring out how culpable the Russian people are. What are the proper incentives for any other country in the same situation? Is there something that would be more useful to preserving international peace than punishing Russia?
Hell, maybe a suitable punishment would be making Russia into a democracy, it could be worse. (This is supposed to be funny, but I know in advance it's kindof a bad joke.)
"Courage" really understates the sacrifice that Russian protestors are making. I've participated in a fair number of demonstrations for various causes over the years (in the US), but none of them involved any personal risk or enduring consequences. Attending a single anti-war demonstration in Russia is a much more momentous act.
It's uncomfortable sitting in judgment of even pro-Putin Russians, because as you say we in other countries have also been responsible for grievous harms. But like today's Germans, we can't let ourselves be paralyzed by past history when deciding whether we can legitimately do something about the horror unfolding before us.
I cannot se how you are responsible
And that successful evil uses that to ‘boil the frog’ and constantly shift the normal bit by bit in the direction they want, never doing it enough they get a critical mass of resistance, and slowly pruning out all the good people (with terrible consequences for those folks), and then being able to accelerate as they go due to lower and lower portions of folks willing and able to speak out.
It’s terrifying to watch, even more terrifying to know what it can mean unfortunately.
Because we recognize ‘evil’ as being evil and bad because of the horrible and wide reaching consequences of it for everyone in the longer term.
Hopefully Putin made too big a step here (overconfidence maybe, or his hand was forced by something else), we all have recent even painful experience to react strongly enough, and the backlash will be sufficient to actually result in critical change and not a ratcheting up of the ‘new normal’.
maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.
Its easy to say that but you have to look at the bigger picture.
It's easy to say "just punish the government / the oligarchs", but as most Westerners know, these people have become extraordinarily adept at hiding their money and distributing their assets. So it is very difficult indeed to target them per-se, hence you need to make it difficult to move money/assets around, sell assets and gain new money/assets.
You also need to look at the even bigger problem. How do we stop Russia attacking Ukraine ?
Nobody wants World War 3. Even the Americans who are usually keen to test out their latest toys are being remarkably disciplined about sitting on their hands.
So, you don't want to engage in a direct fight with the Russians, what's left on the table ?
Diplomacy ? Well, they've tried and are trying, but not much light at the end of that tunnel as of yet.
So your only option left is to accept that running a war needs two things, money and supplies. If both of those dry up then its only a matter of time before the war grinds to a halt too.
Hence you end up doing things that affect banks, the central bank, transport and logistics.
Regrettably its not just about targeting the military and the government, you have to target the supporting structures too (food, parts, consumables), hence you need to go big and go fast on sanctions.
Yes your average Russian will get caught up in the sanctions. Yes it will be difficult and unpleasant for families.
But frankly the alternative, full-blown war across Europe and the potential for nuclear bombs being used is unfathomably worse for everyone both inside Russia and outside.
Small point but this isn't exactly true, especially among US policymakers and media people. All you need to do here is read the chorus of people in official / corporate media going "nuclear war would be bad, but [...]". You can also rewind to the enormous shit-fit Washington types threw last summer when Biden pulled out of Afghanistan, or go even further back to the Iraq war.
Washington is full of chickenhawk warmongers dying to send other people's children into battle, consequences be damned. It's the rare thing that is really bipartisan, too. A lot of people's careers depend on support for World War III, so they find a way to be okay with it.
It seems Putin sprung this on the rest of Russia as a surprise decision. (Of course the signs were there.) Did he bother to get the support of the oligarchs or anyone else first? It’s not at all clear he has anyone’s support; he just has their obedience.
Morally speaking, this looks rather simple: it’s Putin’s big mistake. To the extent that others failed to stop the invasion, it was by failing to influence him. But a paranoid and isolated dictator isn’t easily influenced.
Punishing other Russians for this, particularly outside Russia and Ukraine, often has no purpose and is a form of cruelty.
We may get it by mistake. A wider war in Europe is all too likely. The NATO countries and the EU are shipping large amounts of military supplies into Ukraine. One story mentions 17 US widebody cargo aircraft per day going into Poland. This is a real threat to Russia's attacks, because the supplies include the good anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. That leaves the Russian army fighting as infantry against a much larger armed population, a long, bloody slog. Unless Russia can cut off outside supplies, there's no path to victory.
It's all too likely that some attempt to attack Ukranian supply lines will reach over the border into a NATO country. Just some Russian pilot in Ukraine in a fight making a turn too slowly could result in overflying Polish territory. Where the air defenses are ready to shoot down anything hostile.
Re-read how WWI started. Everybody had mutual-defense treaties, and one minor event set it all off.
2 hours ago: "Putin says sanctions introduced on Russia are equal to a "declaration of war"" - CNN.
For those who say beat the war drums, punish them all, just so we can make it harder on the authoritarians and oligarchs - are you ready to enlist in the Ukraine militia or is that too much to ask?
It seems a little too facile to be willing to put others lives on the line when you are not willing to risk your own.
One of stark examples is Turks in Germany still voting for Erdogan.
* Make life unpleasant enough for the oligarchs that they replace Putin with someone less intent on ruining the nice thing they had going.
* Handicap Russia's ability to wage war. This includes eliminating their ability to buy supplies and destroying their morale.
It's the second goal that is, in my mind, the motivation for the economy-destroying sanctions.
He has had all the time in the world to insulate himself and plan exactly for that situation. I bet he doesn't even come in contact in person with anyone he doesn't know from the Soviet days at this point and the people he does are probably guilty of all kinds of things themselves if Putin was done away with.
Even if some might want it to go further, it won't, because the coalition will not hold. If Putin stops the war and pulls back to pre-invasion boundaries, the group of countries imposing sanctions will not continue to hold out for Putin's ouster in addition.
An outright revolution by the Russian people is not necessary, though we might hope for unrest which degrades Russia's ability to wage war. The suffering of Russia's common citizens isn't desirable. But it can be justified, since Ukrainian citizens have it far worse.
Americans about Russian wars: 'the average Joes need to go out to the streets and bring Putin down'
What's the option, though? Inaction? Sanctions hurt the people because hurting the support base is the only way to exert pressure on those unrepresentative governments.
At the end of the day, all governments operate via the consent of the governed, even autocracies. But the expression of that consent gets really ugly the less democratic the environment. The international community can't fix Russian democracy, so all that is left for us (absent military action) is to change the reward structure for those who can.
You'll hear teenagers talking about their generation in the third person: "I recognize that my generation has a lot more to deal with than previous generations". College students in a similar way.
You'll hear us paint the enemy, as you described with "the Republicans" and "the Democrats" - although each will use other terms less endearing.
Politicians always talk about what "American families want .."
The recent culture wars as well, whether it was about Covid stuff, or the racial conversations that were prominent up until recently. Am I a "privileged X" or a "member of the community"? Either way, I will start the sentence with, "As an X, I want to say ...". Are "they" "anti-maskers"? Or are "they" "triple vaxxers"?
It's almost like people have internalized sociological statistics as identity, and internalize the language used about us, but from the outside.
It must be a great time to be alive if you work in a marketing department of a big tech company, given how easy it is to "target the market segment"[1] or perhaps engage in state-sponsored information warfare that pits right against left and left against right.[2]
1 - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/market-segment.asp
2 - https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.technologyreview.com/2021/0...
There's not many options beside kinetic war and obliterating the economy.
What do you suggest we do that would be more effective? Hand over Ukraine's sovereignty?
Here is a kicker - there were few coups even in North Korea.
So russians are fine with regime. And even though actions speak louder than words, most people even didn't SPEAK against it until few days ago.
So unless you openly spoke against putin and regime for years, you were part of the problem.
Also, in Ukraine people go against armed forces with bare hands on protests and risk being KILLED. In russia they are afraid to protest to get 15 day jail time? Sorry, no excuse here either.
15 YEARS. I'd rather die, especially if I was giving my life for my country.
I think they're mostly grown in countries doing the imposing of sanctions. If they had to suffer the consequences of sanctions imposed on them, for what their own countries did, they'd have a much different understanding.
As someone who was on the receiving end of sanctions in ex-yu, despite being antiwar and going to protests, I can’t ever support wide sanctions which affect all people. Years we were under sanctions were the worst years of my life. The worst thing is they harm oposition and make regime stronger. Government can tell “the world hates us, and those who want to colaborate with west are traitors and you should not vote for them”, and that’s easy sell to population directly suffering from sanctions.
Xenophobes are well and truly out of their closets. This is why I hate wars. It incentivizes the absolute worst everywhere.
It has been an average Russian guy that does it for centuries.
Virtually every country bordering Russia has suffered from this in the past few hundred years. I don't mean to say that it's right, but it should be easily understandable why any country that had portions of their population deported to Siberia and sent to gulag campus would have tensions that were reignited with this conflict.
Same by the way applies to everybody else, USA folks included
If they stay and get drafted to fight in the war for real, how does this help?
And sure, they could try to organize revolts - but would you? That is extremly dangerous and a million times easier said than done.
Fleeing the country is a strong peaceful revolt on the other hand. Helping those people will mean helping an opposition that one day maybe wants to go back to russia to build up alternative structures.
I had heard that Russians were having trouble opening bank accounts in Georgia, but I can't verify that rumor. It's definitely a hard thing.
https://simpleflying.com/air-serbia-doubles-moscow-frequenci...
This is precisely what leads to atrocities like Japanese internment camps. We are repeating dark history in real time and it's being actively cheered on by a bloodthirsty mob who have no regard for innocent civilians and kids.
Refugees are human & need help, but it isn't quite the same.
Even if they're anti-Putin and anti-war, if they've been trying for years to change things they can't escape being Russian/Belorusian.
[0]: https://twitter.com/AlinaLeonovaSF/status/149945792856210227...
What are you referring to here specifically? Genuinely curious. I haven’t encountered much anti-Russian sentiment (yet), I’ve only noticed anger towards Putin, his cronies, and their soldiers. As far as I can tell, most understand that the Russian people didn’t choose this despite how little they did (or could do) to stop it.
[0] https://www.newsweek.com/russian-conductor-fired-two-orchest... [1] https://www.npr.org/2022/03/03/1084205316/russian-cats-banne... [2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharysmith/2022/03/01/10-stat...
Meanwhile, in Russia's remote places (small town in Ural region) some grocerry shops have imposed food rationing for essentials (sugar, bread, wheat, flour, etc) because of panic-bying. And it's snowing as if during Ragnarök, nordic end of times.
Among my friends and relatives we half-jokingly discuss that, while potato harvesting and mushroom picking were a sort of recreational leisure activity in the past, now they are destined to become an essential part of this summer season.
i think the Ukrainians fleeing Russian bombs should take priority over Russians fleeing discomfort.
Famine is the natural stable state for Russia.
Russia was on the brink of famine in 1990-1991. Putin's political career started from stealing and reselling humanitarian aid from USA in St Petersburg. He was saved from prosecution by mayor Sobchak. That's why his daughter Ksenia Sobchak always got preferential treatment.
First sinister thought that crossed my mind when two days ago I heard he'll likely prevent people fleeing on the 5th was that there must be some 40 million "fighting aged" men not doing essential work (for a military economy) under a despot out of medieval times. How significant do you consider the probability he's blocked people from leaving and declared martial law in order to conscript hordes of non-reserved men into military training or straight into the meat grinder? Especially if Ukraine drags on for weeks and months, let along if there's contagion to other countries.. Do you think that's the path Russia could be on or it's more about avoiding an exodus and increased inner panic?
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/puti...
This mean will be done next week....
Yes, it is disheartening that so many people will personally pay for this regardless of the fact that they might even be vocally opposing this and other actions.
No, I don't think Russian people are absolved as a nation. I believe that nations are collectively responsible for their actions. Explanations that "I have only followed orders" have long been proven to be false defence.
Every person that continues to work, pay their taxes, follow their roles, close their eyes and ears to the atrocities without opposing the tyrant is cooperating and enabling him to do what he wants.
In the end you must recognise that Putin is only a human being and he is personally unable to do anything substantial. It is only other people that are enabling him that make this tragedy possible.
Some nations decide to pay the blood price and revolt, and some decided to not do that. Ukrainians bled for their right to be a democratic country. So many other nations paid so heavy price because they did not want go with what was easy and comfortable but rather decided to do what is right.
This is international flights of russian airlines that has leased airplanes. Currently like 60% of planes are leased and companies started to demand their planes back. Some planes already get arrested. This is move essentially to prevent returning airplanes because otherwise civil aviation (and not only) in russia will be dead.
It's still interesting to see, what they will do with spare parts. Also I think some airplanes must get some updates from "cloud" daily, which will probably be blocked as well
So.. even when some people move abroad and say they don't support Putin, they still have this.. imperialist mindset that everyone is out to get Russia and it's actions are justified to protect itself and so on.
As an explanation about what people think, not as an accusation against you.
That's considered "Russian propaganda"? We've managed to goad Putin into grinding up his conventional military in a large-scale war. We've set the Russian economy back decades. And we've so far pulled off both of these, without any NATO member paying a massive price in blood for it. Russian propaganda? More like "Greatest US foreign policy success of the 21st century". I've been really critical of the moves we've made in Europe for the past 10-15 years, but I have to say, if this doesn't escalate into WW3....kudos to the CIA and the State Department for playing the long game and having it work out. But it definitely sucks for the Ukrainians.
I still would have preferred the relationship we had with Russia in the early 2000s. It would have been nice to leverage Russia's geographic position in the inevitable confrontation with China: a bunch of Russian tank divisions under a nuclear umbrella in Siberia would keep China nervous about a vulnerable 2nd front, and perhaps unable to mass combat power against Taiwan/Japan/etc.
He said that a few months ago, not this week. Now he doesn't say anything anymore.
So Germany buying gas from Russia, then trying to buy even more gas and then for a large part depending on it. Do you consider that a good or a bad move?
Depending on where in Russian they live. They could flee in their car. Finland seem to be popular (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60624500). The Baltics, Norway and possibly Sweden on a ferry or boat could also be options.
My friend in Georgia (Russian) told me that while TBC refuse to open accounts, Bank of Georgia still do. Also seems like leading party pushing against this discrimination.
Situation may change fast (already?) so check Bank of Georgia asap.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-05/ukrain...
You can get a residents card in a few days by paying like $90 and I think can open a bank account.
Eric Stalwall, the House Representative in East Bay (of the SF Bay Area) proposed to kick all Russian students out of the US. That sickened me and I won't forget this going forward (he ran for Democratic nominee for President in 2020). How can you blame citizens of the country for the country's actions? That's like Japanese internment camps all over again. I can't believe in 2021 someone would propose such a stupid and horrifying thing, especially in the Bay Area.
I'm glad you were able to escape safely.
I keep telling these people that a country is defined by what it does in the world, not by what it is or was. But at the end of the day I think a lot of them consider Russia as a « powerful » country that should have an empire.
(using stablecoins and p2p on/off ramps)
Was your phone inspected when you left the country? Were you interviewed?
As for the "interview", thankfully no, but FSB does stop a lot of people to inspect their phones and question them, which can take 40 minutes.
I had to clean my social networks and direct messages of any posts against the war and the government.
Buy a Trezor, it can save your financial life.
If you do get closer to what the person you responded to said:
A) USDC can freeze individual addresses. So can USDT. Alternative stablecoins like DAI and MIM cannot.
B) Opening the visa card will have the same consternation as any bank. You’ll need to start transacting more in the stablecoin, until banking partners are found.
B) Opening the visa card will have the same consternation as any bank. You’ll need to start transacting more in the stablecoin, until banking partners are found.
You can obtain a visa up to 90 days and the country is home to a thriving Russian-speaking community not to mention it enjoys a relatively modest cost of living, so you wouldn't be burning through your savings till you work out a good arrangement for your job and life for the time being.
Best of luck to you mate. I know it can't be easy right now :/
I'm so sorry ordinary Russians have to go through this stigma that Putins war carries. This isn't a war of "Russians" against Ukraine, it is Putins war. And while it's hard not to cheer for the underdog I hope that everyone can stop giving ordinary Russians a hard time.
This isn't me "preaching", but verbalizing to myself (first and foremost) of how I want to act in every moment, and how I respond to violence from the comfort of a (currently) safe country when my lizard brain is under perpetual bombardment with visuals of horror and injustice.
If the Russian people are so much against Putin and on the side of the West, then why not arrange them to all leave their apartments at the same time, to walk into their central squares, and to start shaking their keys -- as the Czechs did.
As for protest, if you think there's a lot of military in Ukraine, wait and see how much military is in Russia. There's 400k "internal" army alone that is dedicated to fighting its own people. Putin has created this army after the Ukranian revolution so the same thing doesn't happen here.
In Belarus 95% of people were against Lukashenko and took to streets like wildfire after the rigged election a year ago, did it help? As long as he controls the military protests can only do so much.
Most succesful revolutions happened, when the military joined the protests. The military is made up of common people after all.
And it is hard to see through the fog of war from the distance - but my impression is, that the russian army fights very hesistant and with low morale and badly organized. And they are not welcomed as liberators. No matter the propaganda, they will come home one day and share their stories.
I wish you all the best, that you can return one day and manage till then.
> Older generation (who are pro-Russian) suggested being careful around young people as they may be hostile to Russians, even those who are running away from Putin
Of course, instead of even attempting to change your country, where there is no war on its territory, you flee. Why should they be kind to you?
> The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy.
Silence equals support. Молчание - знак согласия. (A popular russian saying).
I'm not pretending I would be better than you and honestly I would certainly have fled too in similar situation. But at some point someone is going to have to do something about the Putin situation, and unfortunately at this point, only Russians can do something that have not a significant chance to end in nuclear apocalypse. Hopefully some brave people over there that remember how tyrans should be treated (but once again, I would never blame anyone for not endangering their families)
Personally, if I had a family to support I would get the hell out asap for sure. What I empathize with are the people, not the territory that they call home.
This 'translation' is either ignorance or deliberate malice to mislead people.
"Silence is a sign of consent" would be an accurate translation, and even then a saying is just a saying, it does not mean it always applies or that it is always true.
> I am at Georgia now
While I sympathize with your plight, Russian infiltration tactics used in Ukraine and elsewhere make it somewhat understandable that Georgia (parts of which are currently under Russian occupation) might be somewhat suspicious of Russians, even those not obviously connected to the Russian government, especially after the recent escalation from the similar partial occupation of Ukraine.
(I was born in Russia, but never worked there. We left the year Putin came to power.)
Speaking of personal attacks, could you take a look at these comments?
It's very easy to type it out and pretend in your imagination, but reality is quite a different matter.
But yes a basket of stablecoins is good right now
Edit: you have to be compliant to a subset of KYC to run their api - sorry i dont have the detail on top of my head, I do know its the case for USDC and last I checked DAI was KYC-rooted too. Everything thats stablecoin usd is KYC-rooted but TerraUSD which you cant purchase with usd on some major fiat ramp.
Also KYC is recursive right, if youre KYCed you got to KYC your users too
The same can be said, probably to a lesser extent, about most of us living outside of Russia - if we bought things coming from Russia or didn't criticize Russia, we supported Putin in a similar way. Though it could be argued we, non-russian citizens don't have the responsibility for russian government's actions...
I'm wondering if resigning from a russian citizenship can help with the sanctions against russians. Surely openly criticizing the war and/or Putin with some kind of stickers or t-shirts or maybe Ukrainian colors can alleviate contact with actual people.
I think no one pretends sanctions are fair. But what's a better alternative?
We need to consider borders, immigration, work authorization, regulations, wealth, health, friends, family responsibilities, kids, partners and their own constraints - before being able to pass judgement.
It's takes incredible privelege to propose that one can just pickup their bags and go wherever they want in the world.
Not that people necessarily have a choice. They need visa, working permits (qualification!), money to create a new live elsewhere and also probably have family or health related things keeping one in a place.
> Also if you didn't protest, you did support him passively.
In a totalitarian state demonstrating isn't as easy as in other places. You easily end up in jail.
Of course it is true that a state can only exist while supported by the inhabitants, but it's not as easy as saying "leave or be loud in protest"
If that's the threshold for responsibility then that's barely scratching the surface. Western banks have profited from the enabling and corruption of oligarchs by laundering their assets with impunity for decades. Corporations like Cisco had no problem doing technology transfers for surveillance technology that now makes opposing so dangerous. German politicians gutted their nuclear energy/energy security in the name of going green. European politicians have pushed an agenda of appeasement in the name of moral relativism and "stakeholder capitalism". This is a crescendo that has been building for decades at the benefit of Westerners and the expense of normal Eastern Bloc people.
If you're an American you don't get to criticize Russian citizens for this. It would be the very definition of glass houses and throwing stones.
How many of your government's injustices and war crimes have you protested? And don't try to brush off my comment as "whataboutism", you're talking tough so back it up.
I think it's the right call, given that they have a problem with Russian saboteurs who snuck into the country before the war started. They're currently discouraging the use of the Russian language (many Ukrainians speak both Ukrainian and Russian) to avoid suspicion. Tension is extremely high right now, checkpoints everywhere around Kyiv, guards on the edge, and there's a huge risk of escalation if you're suspected of being on the wrong side.
There's been many videos of alleged saboteurs getting arrested, and the rumor is that your ability to pronounce a Ukrainian word correctly is used as a test to find out where you're from.
But this is the only way to tell them that they -- collective Ivans, Russian society as a whole -- should stand up and act: they should articulate their content, they should protest against putin's policy, and they should stop the war (an alternative would be to accept Ukraine to NATO and finish this war is a day, but that won't happen).
While they're suffering economically, the suffering of Ukrainians is just on another level -- it's not about restrictions (e.g. no ikea or facebook or apple products) or money (inflation), it's about flattened cities and destroyed lives.
I woke up as I heard bombs falling on my city, and I definitely haven't felt any sympathy for russians since then.
If they feel they don't support their country's aggression towards Ukraine, they should go protest and stop it -- even at risk of being fined or imprisoned. Otherwise they should just embrace all sanctions and become North Korea imho.
On the other hand, if you’re an average Russian with few/no international ties, would you really risk protesting against a government with a demonstrated track record of murdering dissidents and imprisoning protestors?
NATO/the West is choosing to worsen the lives of 144 million Russian citizens due to the actions of ~several hundred people. I don’t disagree with the sanctions but we also shouldn’t pretend that it is a just or fair course of action. Sanctions are the best tool that we have, out of a selection of poor tools.
So it's way more than a few hundred. Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of soldiers who are literally invading Ukraine right now.
That's the single biggest falsehood of this whole thing propaganda wise: that the Russian people aren't responsible for what's going on.
The Russian people are responsbile for their culture, which keeps producing and promoting authoritarianism, decade after decade, generation after generation, century after century.
Oh those poor Russian people, applauding Putin when times were good, cheering the increase in Russian might, cheering the annexation of Crimea, rah rah rah. Oh no, Putin has gone into Ukraine, who could have seen it coming!?! It's all bullshit, they cheered him on. Putin's popularity went way up with the annexation of Crimea, so he's doing it again on a greater level, he's repeating what worked last time with the Russian people - they love conquest and the return of glory for the Russian empire. These are important beliefs of the Russian culture and Putin is very aware of that. Putin fed them endless images of strength, all those ridiculous photos of him pretending to be strong doing a thing, it was all propaganda for his people (now ask yourself why it worked, why that propaganda; because Putin understands very well the Russian culture and what to feed it).
They are responsible.
I think one has to decide what's important for them -- if I think that my participation in collective action (protest) could somehow prevent or stop killing of other people, then I think I would try at least (and if I knew there were other people who I can rely on, who share the same feelings that I have). In this case, if nothing changes, at least I know I did all I could, but if it works (in best case scenario), then the war is over. Worth risking right?
This is how the Revolution of Dignity happened in Ukraine: you just knew you had to act -- and act as a group not as an individual -- when the president you elected have failed your nation (and before running away he also proposed fines and imprisonment for those who took part in protests, so there were risks obviously).
> I don’t disagree with the sanctions but we also shouldn’t pretend that it is a just or fair course of action. Sanctions are the best tool that we have, out of a selection of poor tools.
Completely agree
These Russians leaving their country is still a “vote with your feet” type of play. It hurts the regime of Russia to have professionals leave, especially since the people who leave are more likely to be more skilled. It’s better than doing nothing at all.
edit: I know this is an unpopular point, but there is just zero basis for saying that Putin isn't supported by his country. He absolutely is, which makes the situation much more complicated.
Would you, personally, put your life at risk just to be one more protestor?
I agree that Russians should stand up to Putin, but honestly it’s a lot easier and likely more effective to do this outside of Russia.
And also, targeting and blaming Russians as a whole is exactly not what we need. The difference is a war against Russia vs a war against Putin and the high-level officials. Ordinary Russians didn’t cause this and are victims similar to the Ukrainians. Even if they don’t have it as bad, they’re suffering greatly.
I could share you a video of unarmed Ukrainians protesting against russian invasion today in Kherson in front of russian tanks.
If I felt I was responsible for the country I live in, for the president I elected (and who decided to invade another country without any reason), I would put my life at 'risk' (realistically, would be fined or detained for a few days, not killed or jailed). And besides, the more people participate, the less risks are involved. So really it's up to them.
> honestly it’s a lot easier and likely more effective to do this outside of Russia
but you all see the enormous and unprecedented support that the whole world give to Ukraine, you see all of these gathering in every major city of every major Western country -- and yet it doesn't effect putin sadly. So easier - yes, but more effective - I doubt it...
I'm afraid it has to get much worse before it gets better. They still don't understand that as much as the government is responsible for its people, the people are also responsible for their government.
Putin didn't magically appear on the political scene with all the power he has now. Russians allowed Putin to happen; now they refuse to take responsibility.
He did just appear when Yeltsin said that he's leaving. He blatantly fakes elections: 146% support is a very telling result of one of these elections. It is a meme in Russia because when you can't do anything about it you can only laugh or cry.
His 20 years on the throne are a constant stream of murders, poisoning and jailing of people who try to do something about it, and their friends, and their families.
I'm just a normal person, I want to live a normal live with my wife and kids, I didn't choose any of that. Why do I have to risk going to jail for 15 years for mentioning that war is war, only because I was born on the wrong side of the border?
Do you not speak up? Do you pay taxes? Do you support state run businesses? Do you go along with the system as it violently oppressed others and assassinated dissidents? We all have some responsibility to bear.
I understand you want a normal, peaceful life, but that is not what the world has chosen for you.
You can’t be neutral on a moving train.
The question is how badly do you want things to change? What are you willing to do to break your part in the chain?
If the answer is nothing, then you’re exactly the kind of citizen a dictator wants. One that will acquiesce as things get worse and worse, while still keeping the trains running on time and willing to look the other way.
Just another eye-witness perspective.
(If young men cannot leave, doesn't that mean more people that Putin can try to force to join his army)
In any case, all the people here seem to be hipster-type, college educated intelligentsia from St. Petersburg and the like. Most I’ve talked to do something tech related.
If you have the salary of SV sure, the real state is cheap but for those working and living in Spain it is not
Rent for a room in a city centre goes from 200€, nice flat 500€ big one 600€
Regarding salaries, it's smaller number of currency units but things are very cheap as well, really great place for investing. Infrastructure is better than in central Europe (was there recently for over a month) so it has everything to grow, and it most definitely will.
Yeah, "generated".
Anyway, pumping out Venezuela is the worst idea imaginable. That carbon needs to stay in the ground. If you want to stick it to the Russians, deploy a national workforce installing solar panels all over Germany and Italy, then dynamite the Russian gas pipelines.
I am quite intrigued at those who doubt this of all stories.
tiny nitpick: immigration -> emigration
https://yle.fi/news/3-12345301
Flying is getting harder and harder so while the borders are still open (there is talk of martial law in Russia, which, even though it was just denied does not seem to have much effect on calming things down, in fact the denial seems to have the opposite effect), people are getting out via the land, either by car or by train.
I want to highlight this, because I think it illustrates my point about propaganda. I dug around for a source on that statement, and this appears the most reliable source[0]. An anonymous EU official picking up on "signs". Again, this also may be totally true, but it's presented in such a flimsy way, how can a reasonable person be expected to believe it at face value?
Am I saying the quiet part out loud? Should I not question the propaganda if it is something that I think helps the situation? It's not my nature, but it seems like that's what people are doing.
0. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-says-it-is-picking-u...
FTA: "Buses travelling from St. Petersburg to Helsinki, Tallinn and Riga are also fully booked."
How do I prove:
- This is true without actually seeing the data that buses are fully booked
- Yle is a trustworthy media outlet and what they are saying is true
- The Finnish government isn't booking the buses and then telling the media that buses are booked
For the record - I believe that Russians are trying to do exactly what you said and what the article says. I trust this.
However, this is precisely the issue - what outlets do you really trust? Stuff that comes from BBC? CNN? New age "influencers" on YT/TikTok? This is the problem.
The ruble has declined and the Russian stock market has been closed all week. Russia has been sanctioned. Russia is sending people to fight in a war. There are rumors (whether true or not) that Russia is planning to close borders, impose martial law, etc. Those are all verifiable facts.
In the face of the above, of course people are considering leaving Russia. That is just smart and human nature.
Are they all lying?
https://news.err.ee/1608521780/passenger-numbers-on-lux-expr...
Hopefully, I will get to come visit again once this all calms down.
So much uncertainty, that you don’t belive anything.
Not even truth.
It's a 'shocker' sequence, but then someone explains "one of the journalist was involved into staging false interviews before". So I thought it would be nice to share the article talking about the previous staged interviews, as a cautious tale for all to avoid responding to shocking civilian shot videos. Few minutes ago someone told me that the article may be staged by another group to spread lies about brit journalists.
"lies" all the way up
A troll would pretend to support Putin and so on.
Just don't make conclusions like the entire country wants to leave.
No matter what any of the media say my conviction with this conflict is that Putin is a psychopath. You can make pretty good predictions about his intent and how the conflict will unfold, and who is doing what, and what atrocities which side are willing to commit, based on that fact alone. For example, everyone who thought he wouldn't invade and was shocked when he did saw him as a tactician rather than a psychopath. If you saw him as a psychopath his invasion of Ukraine was inevitable. The thing that shocked me was how slow-rolling the build-up to an invasion is, and how many people are not willing to call a spade a spade. I thought it had to be done in secret, but you can do it in the open if you just lie to people about your intentions. You have the history of his actions in Syria, Chechnya, and Crimea to know that at least what Western media is saying about Russia has a lot of precedent.
Now you could say I'm wrong about that but again that's my conviction and I'll need more than a little proof to sway me from it (because bad actors love to use just a little bit yet deceiving proof to sway people from their loosely held convictions)
"If you die with COVID they put you down as having died from COVID, therefore they're trying to inflate the numbers" is an explanation. If you aren't good at coming up with multiple alternatives and selecting the best one, you're likely to select the one that fits, or the one someone already gave you, and not the real one.
This presentation is interesting because it is a data presentation that is large, direct, and open: Of Russian IPs using a Google, search terms associated with leaving are going up, even pre-war. Your own research can now be on alternative hypotheses like maybe Google became that much more popular in the last few months in spikey per-keyword patterns, or that the Russian population using Google is big (some X%) but has opposite beliefs of all non-Google users. For both, you can check against something like Yandex, which has a similar feature.
The first amendment is a double edged sword, but all false statements need to be challenged so that a free and Democratic society can function properly. The problem is that lies are cheap to produce, and the truth is expensive to prove.
That imbalance of cost is a real struggle to overcome.
You can question the lack of a perspective in reporting, or doubt the framing of provable information without losing faith in the system. It should almost be seen as your job as a responsible news-reader to look past the propaganda (i.e. systemic limits on information conveying) as best you can, while not becoming entirely jaded or entirely untrusting.
This article sounds reasonable, even logical - and it may be, but I was manipulated by so much propaganda in the past weeks about the Ukraine situation that I no longer trust any source without verification from multiple sources that I seek out.
Propaganda is by far most effective on those who believe themselves immune to its effects. The first casualty of war is the truth.
For example, how many of you believe you are not manipulated by Ads and yet companies spent billions and billions to advertise to you. Why would they do that if it had no impact?
The first amendment is absolutely not a double-edged sword. The alternative is STRICTLY worse. You end up with governments, like China's, who lie and challenging that lie is punishable.
Would you say we should believe major russian news orgs? Healthy skepticism is required, especially during times of war. There is a reason why each side banned the other's media, social media, etc. So that they can spread propaganda without pushback. The first casualty in war is the truth.
trust is at an all time low and getting lower
My faint glimmer of hope here is that the West finally takes actions to stop enabling oligarchs and they can start with denying them real estate in Western urban centers (primarily London and NYC). The UK too could enforce disclosure of who the beneficial owner is for an LLC, something they're meant to do but are incredibly lax about.
The US in pareticular seems to be compltely fine with civil forfeiture (which, for the record, is a disgusting practice that targets people who can't fight back). The least we could do is seize the assets of oligarchs, particularly when identified as having enriched themselves from state theft.
I'm not that hopeful.
As for the Russians trying to escape, I would too, just like I would if I were in Ukraine right now. Best of luck to both groups.
Recently, Italy seized real estate and other properties of Russian oligarchs and their lackeys, worth ~$150M.
And if you don’t think we have oligarchs.. why do you think you pay 200 dollars for a vial of insulin? Where do you think all that money goes?
Bezos $500 million dollar yacht is an example (dismantle a bridge to get the yacht through, where is the talk about re-mantleing said bridge, did it make it better? Stronger? Refresh components?)
Regardless, if youre issues' require actions against, mega yachts should be target #1.
However all the luxury shit is made by "normal" people, there's a lot of profit in selling $1000 bottles of wine and underpants to the idiots who would buy them.
Cyprus is literally the hoard of Russian oligarchs, yet I am sure they have been divesting from Cyprus to other locales.. of which were exposed in Panama Papers..
"the bank of switzerland is seizing accounts" (lit just reported n NPR)
---
the author of the book on klepto is talking about laundering wealth via anon companies to "park" (his words) wealth in straight economies.
"there is an entire industry servicing kleptokrats from across the world"
--
Deleware being a core component t money laundering...
Kleptopia...
How sure of that are you? Some of Russians who are leaving claim it's years, and whatever the letter of the law is, do you trust the Russian government that much?
There are also patriotic people like those Ukranians you mentioned that stayed and are fighting. Unfortunately many of the patriotic Russians support the war and they don't care as much about quality of life.
What is happening is kind of like you living in a neighbourhood your whole life and then some thugs move in. Now all of a sudden you don't get mail because the post is scared of those thugs. You can fight the thugs or you can move to a neighbourhood where you can get your mail.
Obviously not an option for everyone. The sanctions will be hardest for people will low income e.g. elderlies without family to support them.
Also in the last 10-15 years there was quite a (non-governmental) movement to support kids with rare diseases or generally with complicated conditions. This becomes much more complicated I guess if just for the FX rate.
Anecdotal story: I am originally from Ukraine (now a US citizen) and currently host 2 Ukrainian refugees (relatives of mine). Yesterday we were walking in Santa Barbara, CA chatting in Russian (our native language). An angry American passed by listening to some Ukraine-Russian news on his phone (via speakers), recognized we speak Russian and angrily told us something along the lines of us having to go back to Russia …
I wish you and your relatives the best. Long live Ukraine.
It really feels the trap is closing in around me right now.
I wrote about the situation here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30552091
If anyone can help us get these people out — please step forward, all information is in the post. 30+ recruiters are already working with us, but that is not enough.
Also West is definitely attacking Russians and not Russian government now. How on Earth cancelling Dostoevski, Chekvhov and Tchaikovski is going to stop the war and change Russian government policies? It resembles more to me some early XX century antisemitism that was rampant in Europe.
Unfortunately state television (the only television available for the most people) has been persistently making an enemy out of Ukraine since 2014. I don't know how it works, but propaganda can erase brains. The elderly and the poorly educated peolple really think that Ukraine is full of fascists and nazis who kill Russians. Orwell as is. it's horrible. On the other hand my friend who was protesting against the war was severely beaten by the police.
The most disgusting thing is that Putin has apparently lost touch with reality and can really press the button. He has absolute power in Russia. He is a psychopath. Things are very bad.
I never supported Putin and did what I could to support our opposition leaders - both Navalny and Maxim Katz. I suported them financially, but yeah I did not participate in protests on streets and I certainly wond not do it if there was a risk to spend next 15 years in prison.
PS: I have to look for a job that offer some kind of relocation since my current game development project only lasts till August and I'm not sure what to do next. I have 10+ years of experience with a bit of everything, but recently mostly frontend with TypeScript / Angular / Vue and backend with Java / Spring Boot or PHP / Laravel.
1) They do not want to be conscripted to fight in Putin's war.
2) The Western sanctions are impacting Russia's economy at every level. Western companies are cutting them off from goods and services they rely on. Those who experienced life behind the Iron Curtain do not want to live behind it again. The iPhone curtain...
3) Russia is transitioning from an authoritarian state to a totalitarian state. In Moscow now, there are reports that FSB officers checking Russian travelers' phones in airports, to make sure they are not breaking the new censorship laws regarding information about the war.
If one could invest in slogans that will soon be in every history book, I would go all in on this one :-)
I wonder how those who are left behind (or stay behind) may react. This whole situation is very messy, and it’s difficult (for me) to see how this will shape up, when the conflict will end, and at what cost.
Is this whole shit we have witnessed over the last days Putins realization that he has nothing of value to offer to the population?
And that he therefore cannot allow a culturally well connected big western style democracy at his side? With all the connections between Russia and Ukrain, this would be like a massive advertisement what Russians are missing out.
Food for thought.
We all are.