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gregshap

619 karma · joined August 31, 2013

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gregshap··on Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
Other Good news: The cold transport requirement has been a known requirement since beginning of development, for at least the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. And the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines have been among the leading candidates since March.
gregshap··on What Palantir and the LAPD Know About You
>"well-established reputation for bias and shoddy journalistic practices - moreso than other news outlets."

How about a citation for that assertion? Reputation among whom?

Buzzfeed News is rated in the category "Most Reliable for News" and "Reliable for news, but high in analysis / opinion content" similar to WSJ and, CNN, and FT.

[1]http://gatewayjr.org/how-a-popular-media-bias-chart-determin...

gregshap··on One-third of New York’s small businesses may be gone forever
> "She asked her landlord for a break on her $6,000 a month rent, but he refused. Ms. Dillon said she decided in early April to close down."

Commercial evictions have been stopped in New York since March. It seems like a lot of people underestimate their bargaining power in a pandemic. Who else is the landlord going to rent to anyway?

gregshap··on One-third of New York’s small businesses may be gone forever
Sure DeBlasio and Cuomo 100% bungled the response in March especially, but you have a lot wrong here.

The city has been massively transformed to allow outdoor dining. Easily 1000's of restaurants and bars now have outdoor dining in what would usually be street parking spaces. Manhattan and Brooklyn especially. I've seen less of this in the Bronx, but most restaurants stayed open doing takeout anyway.

NYC gave direct cash grants to businesses with <10 employees. I know business owners got the money. Those grants were approved and funded before Care Act / PPP was passed. Once PPP opened there was no point in NYC trying to compete, the city can't print money.

Other states were able to give more direct financial assistance to businesses because they didn't have to spend so much on actual COVID response. Remember NY received a tiny amount of federal funding relative to population and actual pandemic impact, because of who was in control of the funding formula.

gregshap··on Hacking Portable Air Conditioners
These exist, usually an off the shelf through-wall AC unit with custom built sleeve and legs. You can see them (or not see them) in some of the landmark pre-war buildings with strict facade rules.
gregshap··on Co-founder of Gokada found decapitated, dismembered inside New York condo
Definitely weird, but it’s a local news site and New Yorkers eat up housing market gossip.
gregshap··on Ask HN: I'd appreciate advice on my current work situation
This is a negotiation so think about your leverage. Reasoning about fairness is very little leverage.

Two Questions:

1. How important are you to the ongoing revenue of the business after it changes hands?

If you're an ongoing key person, you do have some leverage with the current owner. You may have even more leverage negotiating a consulting contract with the buyer. This is a business negotiation and then a lawyer can help you draft a good agreement.

2. Do you believe your 20% royalty continues in the event of a sale?

If your 20% royalty is supposed to survive the sale, maybe you should negotiate a buyout of that royalty. There are lots of factors in valuing this, but your anchoring point would be 20% of the expected sale price, and its a financial discussion not a fairness discussion.

gregshap··on Ginger milk curd (2014)
姜汁撞奶 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ginger_milk_curd
gregshap··on Effect of economic crisis on America’s small businesses [slides]
1) the stock market is collapsing because business cashflows are collapsing 2) the collapse has barely begun
gregshap··on Microwave Weapons Are Suspect in Ills of U.S. Embassy Workers
Cochlear implants do perform a similar bypass

[https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochlear_implant]

gregshap··on Botched CIA Communications System Helped Blow Cover of Chinese Agents
Sounds like “fucked up the firewall” == "fucked up a WHERE clause"
gregshap··on Study Shows a Productivity Boost of Working From Home
how do you figure out which features can be completed by the delivery date, if not by estimating?
gregshap··on People who are less willing to apologize also tend to be less self-compassionate
I don't think poster is saying that all people who apologize often are abusers, but that many abusers fit this pattern of alternating bad behavior with apologies/compensation. It rings very true if you have seen firsthand.
gregshap··on When your manager isn't supporting you, develop a manager crew
I've generally stuck to "Hi [Name]" for managers and employees with whom I had a strained relationship. Otherwise "hey" felt fine. This is in East Coast software companies and academia.

Overall I'd say I hey'd about 80% of bosses and 95% of employees at least some of the time.

gregshap··on Americans are having less sex and researchers are blaming Netflix
According to the abstract, the declines are driven by people married or living together, and especially people in their 50s, with kids, and those who DONT view pornography.

So according to the paper pornography is a complement to partnered sex, not a substitute.

gregshap··on Americans are having less sex and researchers are blaming Netflix
Original paper (abstract): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10508-017-0953-1
gregshap··on Uber’s Financials: An Inside Look
Some takeaways:

* Close to $10B in gross bookings, which in a back of the envelope guess means 5-10 million rides per day (assuming $10-$20 per ride) If anything maybe more as 'pool' options get more popular.

* Slower growth for Uber means they are still increasing topline bookings by 10+% per quarter

* Uber's reported R&D spending is around 15% of revenue. The proportion is comparable to companies like google & microsoft, but uber is still 10x smaller overall

gregshap··on Uber’s Financials: An Inside Look
They show Gross Bookings were $9.7B in Q3 of 2017.

Net Revenue was $2.0B which is after paying drivers.

gregshap··on [dead]
In other words, everyday citizens need to make split-second life-or-death decisions, and one wrong move results in being shot by an unprofessional cretan.
gregshap··on Books I read this year
Interesting, maybe those scars are part of why it takes this long to see better histories.

I think US-Vietnam war books and documentaries are also popular now because of the parallels to Afghanistan, Iraq, and other traumas today.

gregshap··on Did American Missile Defense Fail in Saudi Arabia?
Great explanations, makes perfect sense with a little more thought.
gregshap··on Did American Missile Defense Fail in Saudi Arabia?
Assuming the chance of each hit is independent, why do you think they wouldn't be additive?
gregshap··on Bitcoin has crossed $6,000 USD for the first time
you betcha
gregshap··on Why It Took Google So Long to End Shady Rehab Center Ads
"America’s $35 billion addiction treatment market"

$35 Billion. That's at least 10x-50x what I would have guessed.

Google isn't creating this market, but yes they should try to help. This is a fundamental and enormous societal problem.

gregshap··on S&P 500 to exclude Snap after voting rights debate
SNAP is not an existing member of the S&P 500

They were already unqualified until now, because they lack positive earnings.

[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies]

gregshap··on Venezuelan Opposition Leaders Detained at Gunpoint in Raids
Good luck finding someone to take the other side of that trade
gregshap··on Inside the Largest US Voter Data Leak
Nope, in the US you register with the state and you can optionally tell the state that you are a member of some party.

You can register to vote and self-identify as 'Dem' 'Republican' etc while getting your driver's license.

Aside from the public voter file update, the Democratic Party doesn't get any special notification if you pick them, and you don't need to apply or get accepted in any way.

gregshap··on A Study That Bolsters the Lead-Crime Hypothesis
> Why didn't they control for the other intervention treatments? One where they reduce BLL + other treatments, and one where they didn't reduce BLL but still gave the other treatments?

This is a good question, but keep in mind it's not a randomized control trial, they are using some clever techniques to look backwards on data from an existing program.

They could expand the study and compare to other children who had health workers in the home for unrelated reasons. But those unrelated reasons could themselves affect 'antisocial behavior and cognitive outcomes'

gregshap··on How Much Does it Cost to Climb Mount Everest?
Boston Marathon: you can qualify by time or by raising money for a charity.

Qualifying by time is out of reach for most recreational runners, and there are only a few thousand charity spots, so people regularly raise 5 figures in order to run.

http://www.baa.org/utilities/charities/official-charity-prog...

gregshap··on SaaS Pricing (2013)
Can't say whether he is over/under/fairly rated, but I like reading patio11's business and career posts because 1) he is good at communicating pitfalls and rules of thumb that I wouldn't otherwise think of 2)it's nice to read tech business stories outside the cult of superstar personalities, sacrificed relationships, and (huge bets)∩(survivor bias)
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