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greeneggs

2,130 karma · joined September 29, 2011

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greeneggs··on Milan confirms new cycling network linking 80% of the city to bike paths
Physically separated bike lanes are even worse. You can't get out of them easily if you come across a lot of debris. And they are harder to street clean, so debris accumulates more.
greeneggs··on Rising groundwater caused by climate change could devastate coastal communities
> Paying out ~100% of the take equally per-person to make it so it helps rather than hurts the poorest, a "carbon dividend". Poor people use less carbon on average (directly+indirectly) than wealthy people, so they will usually be net beneficiaries.

I think there's an argument that this is impossible to sustain, politically. Once there is a huge new tax, it will be too tempting to redirect growing portions of that funding to other projects. California, for example, has an energy rebate, but the money has also been diverted to bail out the high-speed rail project, for example, and if the state faced a fiscal crisis who knows where the money would go?

greeneggs··on U.S. satellites are being attacked every day according to Space Force general
I don't see why looking at something closely is evidence of "malign intent." After all, the whole point of spy satellites is to look closely at other countries. You could say that it is risky, because there could be a collision, but that is quite different from malign intent, and this risk can be greatly mitigated.
greeneggs··on Books I loved reading this year
Doudna has her own memoir, "A Crack in Creation: Gene Editing and the Unthinkable Power to Control Evolution." Why would you read Isaacson's third-person account, when you can get the information from the scientist herself?

Well, I read both books, and Isaacson's is much better. In fact, Doudna's book was largely written by her coauthor, her then-graduate student Sam Sternberg, based on long interviews. This is the same process Isaacson used. But, in my opinion, Isaacson does it better, incorporating more of Doudna's personal anecdotes with similar levels of science.

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/30971755-a-crack-in-crea...

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54968118-the-code-breake...

greeneggs··on Pfizer's oral Covid-19 antiviral cuts hospitalization, death by 85%
Your first link is from 2008, and analyzes data from 2004. I don't see how this proves anything, or even suggests much, about the industry today.

Your second link shows that the pharma companies spend almost as much on R&D as on stock dividends and buybacks. Is there any other industry that spends as much on R&D? Apple, for instance, seems to be spending ~6x as much on stock buybacks and dividends as on R&D (approximately, based on the first Google hits).

Even your own links contradict your claim that very little goes to R&D.

greeneggs··on Meta buys Within, the studio behind VR fitness app Supernatural
Well, for example, climate-change-fueled wildfires have draped large areas of California and the western US in wildfire smoke for weeks on end, the last few years. Aside from that, large cities and suburbs can be smoggy, very hot, and extremely hostile to pedestrians, let alone runners. (This is true both in the US, and abroad—the pollution in many modern cities is unreal.)

Gyms are expensive, and there is a pandemic.

greeneggs··on By 2500 earth could be alien to humans
We don't do anything now because it is easier to put it off till later. In the future, the humans should be wealthier on average, and have access to better technology.

But even then, it will always be easier to put it off till later. What generation is going to take a significant, and eventually massive, charge in order to help their grandchildren? It seems not unlikely that no generation does, the problem gets worse and worse, wealth stagnates and then starts to decline, and eventually the problem is unsolvable. This could happen even without any climate tipping points.

greeneggs··on New York Public Library ends all late fees
For me, it is the opposite. I don't feel any shame from a computer marking a book as "late" in its database. I do feel shame from having to walk up to the library desk and tell the librarian that I owe them $0.50 in late fees. I'll go well out of my way to return books on time, to avoid this shame and not the relatively trivial fee itself.

I think that perhaps strong shame requires a social interaction. (However, I would also be ashamed to pick up my child late from daycare, so maybe my feelings aren't broadly representative.)

greeneggs··on Major Quantum Computing Advance Made Obsolete by Teenager (2018)
To be fair, in this case and I suspect in many others, the popular article has greatly oversold the importance of the problem. When you are considering a problem that only a handful of others have ever looked at, there's no reason why a new person shouldn't find a new approach. of course, it helps when she's a genius.
greeneggs··on A remote island's battle against seabird-killing ants (2015)
Here's a similar story about eliminating Argentine ants from Santa Cruz Island (near Los Angeles, California):

http://www.californiaislands.net/argentine-ants

The page was last updated in 2016. I'm not sure of the current status of the project.

greeneggs··on Spherical Panoramas
The Google Cardboard app does this. (Did this? I haven't used the app in a long time.)
greeneggs··on George Gamow, Fred Hoyle, and the great Big Bang debate
This is a book review. The book itself certainly discusses Lemaître. For example, regarding the paragraphs that Lemaître removed from his own article,

> It turns out that Lemaître, who had translated his paper himself, had left out certain findings because he preferred not to distract readers from Hubble’s results, which were based on more extensive data. In his supreme modesty, Lemaître was little interested in what history would think of him. He only wanted the most accurate estimates to be available—which he believed were Hubble’s, not his.

greeneggs··on What if a deadly heatwave hit India?
This might have worked twenty years ago, had we as a society done anything. But it is too late for that now. Since we put off doing anything, it is now going to be much harder to solve the problem. Eating any beef at all now is immoral.
greeneggs··on What if a deadly heatwave hit India?
For anyone who flies, aviation is a huge fraction of their personal emissions. It isn't about "targeting aviation." Just any individual (who isn't an anarchist) should reduce their flying. But as you say, they should also reduce their emissions from ground transportation.

Beyond the personal, on the broader political scale, I also don't know that targeting any particular thing makes sense. All emissions, from all contributors, need to fall. Something like a carbon tax would cleanly attack the least efficient carbon emitters first.

greeneggs··on The recycling myth: A plastic waste solution littered with failure
> I say ban all single-use plastic.

The alternatives are worse. They use much more energy, and you can't go outside without seeing how bad global warming is now, and how devastating it soon will be.

We need to forget plastics recycling entirely, and spend all that effort on redirecting trash to landfills.

greeneggs··on Astronomers push for global debate on giant satellite swarms
Planes are more intrusive. Bigger, brighter, and there are more of them. But they still don't ruin the night sky. At least for me, for naked-eye stargazing, satellites are a non-issue.
greeneggs··on Don’t Let Police Arm Autonomous or Remote-Controlled Robots and Drones
Statistically, combat veterans are 6 percentage points more likely to shoot than non-veterans. (32% versus 26% have discharged their service firearm while on duty, other than at a gun range or during training.)

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/08/a-closer-lo...

greeneggs··on Don’t Let Police Arm Autonomous or Remote-Controlled Robots and Drones
> The vast majority of police never actually need their weapons. So why are they routinely carrying them?

Your link doesn't support this. How many police have drawn their weapons?

greeneggs··on What can a technologist do about climate change? (2015)
Well, that's certainly makes sense in a roll-coal, stick-it-to-the-libs, screw-the-next-generation way.
greeneggs··on Kim Stanley Robinson: a declining world population could be a good thing
It's worse than that. Not only will social security be more difficult to fund, but private retirement savings will also be more difficult. Saving for retirement is much easier with a fast-growing economy in which you can get high rates of return. With a slower-growing, or even flat, economy, stocks and other investments should appreciate more slowly, too. (There are fewer good investment opportunities when the size of the pie is fixed.)
greeneggs··on What can a technologist do about climate change? (2015)
A grocery store plastic bag weighs about 5.5 grams. A gallon of gasoline weighs about 2.86 kilograms, or 520 times more. Minimizing your use of gasoline is far more important than worrying about a plastic bag.

If you worry that plastic recycling is sent to third-world countries and thence into the ocean—and you should worry—there's an easy solution. Don't recycle your plastic. Trash it; send it to a landfill. In the big picture, drilling for oil, making plastic, and then burying it again is its own sort of recycling. And in developed nations, landfilling plastic is environmentally benign. Landfills are lined and covered.

greeneggs··on Third member of U.S. FDA advisory panel resigns over Alzheimer’s drug approval
Sure, but the doctor doesn't have to do much research in this case. This is front-page news in the NY Times. And about "every single medication": this is the only approved medication to delay clinical decline due to Alzheimer's. And there are only a few medications to treat symptoms.

I know this isn't a perfect world, but it doesn't seem to be asking a lot for a doctor to know this. (Especially for a drug that currently costs $56K/year and presumably will cost more next year.)

greeneggs··on World Now Likely to Hit Watershed 1.5 °C Rise in Next 5 Years
> The number of humans will reduce rather drastically in the next fifty years.

It doesn't look like it. The UN predicts the population will be ~10.5 billion in 2070. Of course, there is a large range of uncertainty. [1]

Given sustainability limits, the cost to the environment (and to humans) of going from 10 to 11 billion is a lot worse than the cost of going from 5 to 6 billion, say. (For example, there's only so many fish in the sea.)

[1] https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/9...

greeneggs··on U.S. moves to double Canadian lumber tariffs
> The overall point is OUR resources were exported at a loss so OUR prices would increase. Forests are part of the wealth of our country. Letting a timber company send it overseas to increase domestic timber prices should be illegal.

The same argument applies to cars, and to everything else we make or harvest. Should we ban all exports? (Please, no, it is a bad idea.)

greeneggs··on Italian seaside residents hit with bygone feudal tax
This is common in the United States as well, known as "heir property." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heir_property

It is a major factor why Blacks have lost ownership of farmland in the United States. Rather than try to explain it myself, here is an excerpt from "Mine!" by Jacob Heller and James Salzman:

> Currently, Black farmers constitute less than 1 percent of American farmers, and Black families continue to lose farms at a rate three times that of whites. The cause of this dramatic farm loss starts with inheritance law, in particular the consequences for family ownership when someone dies without making a will. Many poor Black farmers in the South were suspicious of local white lawyers, and for good reason, so they never made wills. This suspicion continues today, even among some wealthy Black people. Aretha Franklin and Prince could well have afforded the very best attorneys, yet both passed away without making wills. Overall, three-quarters of Black people do not have wills, more than double the percentage of whites.

> The result for Black-owned land in the Southeast is that over a quarter is now heir property, averaging eight co-owners, five of whom live outside the region. Amazingly, more land in Mississippi is owned by Black people living in Chicago than by those living in Mississippi itself. …

> Inheritance law imposes enormous costs on Black people—indeed, on anyone who does not write a will. When you die without a will, the state splits ownership among people the law designates as heirs, in a specified priority: spouses and children, grandchildren, parents, siblings, and then more remote relatives.

> Partition sales … are the primary way that most heir property is lost. Partition sales are not just of historical interest. Across the South, heir property currently makes up a third of remaining Black-owned farmland—roughly 3.5 million acres worth about $30 billion. …

> In 1887 John Brown bought eighty acres of land in Rankin County, Mississippi. He was part of the great wave of freed slaves who invested their life savings in farmland. … When he died in 1935, he did not leave a will. Ownership of his land split among his wife and nine children. In time they all died, also without wills, so the land was split further among grandchildren. … In 1978 Ruth Brown asked a court to divide the farm so she would own her share of the land outright—a manageable forty-five acres out of John’s original eighty. The other sixty-six Brown heirs would still co-own the balance, in shares ranging from 1/18th of the farm down to a tiny 1/19,440th. The court agreed to partition the parcel, but not by physically dividing the land. Instead, the judge ordered the entire farm sold and the money partitioned among the heirs according to their ownership fractions.

> As often happens in such forced partition sales, a single outside company was the only bidder. In Brown’s case, it was a local white-owned lumber company that wanted to cut the timber.

> Even though the family collectively valued the farm far above its auction price, neither Brown nor any other heir placed a bid. Why? Partly because state law often requires the bid to be fully or substantially paid in cash on auction day, a rule that makes bidding impossible for most ordinary owners. Partly because there was no simple way for the Brown heirs to organize a joint family bid that pulled together resources from the scattered owners. Many heirs did not even know they were owners. And no single Brown heir could top the lumber company’s lowball bid. This is commonplace. When a judge orders land auctioned on courthouse steps, the deal is final, even though the price is usually far below what is considered fair market value in an ordinary transaction.

greeneggs··on ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world
From Wikipedia, "Swanson's law is the observation that the price of solar photovoltaic modules tends to drop 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume." (Swanson's law is a special case of Wright's law for more general manufacturing costs, and is a misnomer.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law

greeneggs··on How a carnivorous mushroom poisons its prey
Quite a lot of detail is available at http://timetree.org/
greeneggs··on Barrier Reef doomed as up to 99% of coral at risk, report finds
You just have to be able to live with yourself, given that your trip (and presumably your lifestyle more generally) is destroying the very thing that you are visiting to admire. That's beyond me.
greeneggs··on Voltswagen of America
Instead of posting uninformed speculation, you can just Google it…

> In 2017, the U.S.-based VW executive Oliver Schmidt, who oversaw emissions issues, was sentenced to seven years in prison and fined $400,000, the maximum possible under a plea deal the German national made with prosecutors after admitting to charges of conspiring to mislead U.S regulators and violate clean-air laws.

The US has charged nine people, and Germany at least five, though they aren't moving quickly with the prosecutions.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-emissions/u-s-...

greeneggs··on The absolute worst scenario happened
Of course it isn't that simple. If your farm's tomatoes are more expensive than your neighbors' tomatoes, then nobody will buy them. You'll quickly go bankrupt.

It is also difficult because of the two tiers of labor. A farmer will try increasing wages by $1/hour, and still struggle to find enough workers. Wages would probably have to be doubled before new workers—Americans—would start to enter the industry.

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