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gottorf

2,717 karma · joined June 30, 2023

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gottorf··on 5x faster Edge Functions: V8 isolates to Firecracker MicroVMs
> companies like Vercel and Heroku shouldn't exist at all

Crazy that Heroku with its head start has become abandonware. Goes to show that no incumbent is immune to change.

gottorf··on Cities Are Forced to Funnel License Plate Data to a Federal Surveillance Program
To steelman your argument and respond: 1) there is ample reason to believe that a Harris presidency would not have done any better on this front (that is, the choice was between big government and bigger government), and 2) the federal government being as big as it is already makes it hard for states and local governments to say no to requests like these. (You might recall how highway funding was used as a cudgel to "force" the drinking age to 21.)

There isn't a true (and viable) "weaker federal government, stronger state and local governments" party in this country at the moment. And the two party system being what it is, voters have to pick one out of two choices, neither of which will represent the voter's beliefs fully, or even mostly. Even the "pro-Trump MAGA camp" disagrees with itself on a ton of issues, perhaps more so than the camp on the opposite side[0]. I personally know many people who voted for Trump in 2024 and would describe themselves, ironically or not, as MAGA, who all did so for different reasons and are from very diverse backgrounds.

Though, if there indeed was a peep from any of them against this particular project, would you even hear it in today's fragmented informational spheres?

[0]: https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso....

gottorf··on Gemini 4 Argon
Hallucination is accurate for what I'm seeing -- e.g. it's making up information about the 2nd gen Toyota Tundra that has no basis in reality. When challenged, it corrects itself.
gottorf··on Gemini 4 Argon
My experience with Gemini 3.8 Flash has been awful; it gives me the most hallucinations out of the major models. I'm not using it for coding, but general research on different topics.
gottorf··on Toyota is taking the Corolla electric
Isn't that similar to how Emirates is profitable (~16% before tax as of the last fiscal year) while providing a more luxurious service? For both, the line between state and corporation is blurry enough that you could argue both are subsidized to starve out international competition.

Emirates claims no subsidies at all; BYD's disclosed direct grants alone are about a third of their cumulative lifetime profit, let alone indirect subsidies.

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
> It does not follow that legal heroin leads to job loss, alienation, etc. Because those are social penalties applied by pious douchebags who wish to punish the addicted.

I follow what you're saying, that the downsides of drug addiction outside of the user's own body is imposed by the people around them. I suppose that's almost definitionally true. I and many people do in fact find it unpleasant to be around people who are high out of their minds. I do not wish to associate with such people while they're in that state. I do not think that society would be better off with more of them, so I would prefer that society actively disincentivize such behavior. And you could certainly make the argument that this is the same thing as wanting punishment.

But if you're making the argument that being high on drugs might lead a user to job loss organically, I find that hard to believe. What if I didn't even know what heroin was, and saw that an employee was nodding off on the job? Wouldn't I be inclined to fire him?

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
Punishment isn't just about deterrent. An equal and perhaps more important part of it is incapacitation; the criminal, while incarcerated, cannot inflict more harm upon the public.
gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
I suppose you'd agree that some drugs will actually hamper one's ability to function as a productive member of society, whether or not it is illegal; for example, heroin. So if heroin was legal and you could buy it at the pharmacy, and you become addicted and you lose your job and alienate your friends and family, why wouldn't you also end up stealing copper? Maybe heroin being illegal would have made that trajectory one step shorter, but I don't see the story changing fundamentally.

Taking a step back, why doesn't society have a legitimate interest in making sure that people aren't able to take that first hit?

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
> It does not have that much higher ceime rates

This is but one crime, but the homicide rate in the US is 5.9 per 100k, which is about 10x higher than in Korea.

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
> Most criminologists will tell you that punishment is a very poor method of reducing the crime rate

Again, this is not anything written in stone. For example, consensus in criminology is that the certainty of punishment is a strong deterrent even when the severity of punishment is not, so the detail of the punishment matters.

And because criminality follows such a strong power law distribution, where a single-digit percent of people are responsible for over half of the crime, it is trivially easy to see that by permanently incapacitating that single-digit percent, you can actually lower the crime rate a lot. El Salvador's homicide rate dropped to 1/100th in ten years by doing precisely this.

To the degree that criminologists say that "punishment is a very poor method of reducing the crime rate", what they really mean is that in the context of today's liberal western democracy, there isn't punishment that will adequately prevent an offender from reoffending while remaining palatable to discuss in polite company. Popular opinion does appear to be shifting on this as we speak.

> the underlying desperation and inequality that drives people towards crime

From what I've seen, smart, empathetic people such as yourself are actually really, really bad at modeling the minds and motivations of petty criminals and others in the bottom of the distribution of cognitive capacity who engage in antisocial behavior. It seems to be such an enduring blind spot for many people on the opposite end.

The vast majority of people who commit crime are not Jean Valjean or Aladdin. They smash a windshield that costs $800 to replace for fifty cents in loose change, they assault people to look tough to a girl, they vandalize just for fun. They only steal from stores things they can fence for money, not bread and milk and diapers. Sometimes they'll put in surprising amounts of effort into committing crime; effort that could really have gone into a productive endeavor. There's precious little desperation involved. It's mostly just what feels good to them in the moment.

The vast majority don't need "help", and in fact no one has figured out a way to help these people out of doing what they do. At best you can provide what I would euphemistically describe as palliative care, at great taxpayer expense, to people who would go back to doing what they were doing the moment that help stops.

One caveat: your username suggests that you might be from a homogeneous population with smaller tails on both ends of the distribution, so it's likely that your experience is different than mine, and that you encounter more Jean Valjeans and Aladdins than is the norm around the world. But I would caution that if you can't envision a person who does bad things not out of any articulable reason but just because, as opposed to "like you or I but under worse circumstances", then that is a failure of your imagination.

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
> fixing income and wealth inequality, food insecurity, housing insecurity, etc. is not trivial, and our political leaders (especially those on the right) generally do not want to fix society in this way

On food insecurity: the five states that are the least food-insecure are a swing state, two solid red states, and two solid blue states[0].

On housing insecurity: the states with the most affordable homes (median house price to median income ratio, or share of income spent on housing) are for the most part solid red states[1]. I would wager this is largely due to stronger private property rights in red states that make it easier for supply to rise to meet demand and establish a better-functioning rental market[2].

Let's not make the mistake of judging politicians and government programs by their stated intent and not their factual outcomes. Whether someone "wants to" fix society in one way or another is very, very far removed from whether it actually gets fixed under their leadership. Plenty of times in history, the problem actually got worse!

On income and wealth inequality: unfortunately, these things cannot be fixed except by fixing the fact that different people have different abilities, talents, preferences, and tastes, and some of those differences include the ability to make money and build wealth. Nobody would look at me and think I have an equal chance of making it in the NBA as, say, the guys in this picture[3], but for some reason we're supposed to believe that when it comes to the skills of moneymaking and wealth-building, anyone is about as good as anyone else.

[0]: https://www.americashealthrankings.org/explore/measures/food...

[1]: https://www.affordabilityindex.org/rankings/states/, https://www.businessinsider.com/every-state-ranked-by-housin...

[2]: In parts of California, tenancy laws are so insane that it could take a landlord over a year and tens of thousands of dollars in legal fees to evict a nonpaying tenant. There's a whole cottage industry of landlords paying those same nonpaying tenants good money to just leave quietly. If you had property to rent, how much extra money would you charge to compensate for this risk?

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft#/media/File:NBA_Draf...

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
> if they had a safe and affordable/free supply of the drugs they crave

What would this incredible generosity on the part of the taxpayer achieve? I find it difficult to model your chain of reasoning. Taxpayer-funded benefit programs generally at least purport to have some kind of positive social outcome. What is the positive social outcome of giving drug addicts more drugs? Are we trying to feed a utility monster, where someone's desperation is justification for their actions?

> probably save money in the process

That the criminal justice system in the US is slow and expensive is a shame, but it's not written in some divine stone that it has to be that way. It's largely just downstream of the Warren court.

gottorf··on What California is learning from solar panels built over irrigation canals
Your point only stands if you assume that Americans and Koreans commit crime at the same rate, which is eminently false. The high rate of incarceration in the US is directly downstream of higher criminality compared to other advanced economies.

In fact, were Americans not constitutionally averse to stronger government, even more people would be locked up. People do stuff in America day after day that would not fly in Korea.

gottorf··on Google will buy half the electricity from one of Finland's nuclear power plants
> government regulations to put a cap on utility profits

I don't know about Finland specifically, but isn't this already the case practically everywhere?

gottorf··on Automattic's board forces CEO Matt Mullenweg into leave of absence
In fairness, I don't think stealing $20 makes the local news these days, unless you live in a town of 300 people. There's a lot of antisocial behavior that goes unreported.

But moreover: I guess there's a presumption, whether fair or not, that well-paid executives overseen by wealthy boards of directors are pre-vetted and act in good faith, whether or not those actions pan out and make money; versus robbery or violent crime that people recoil from, that assumption of good faith isn't there, because it's self-evident to ordinary people that there is no justification for such actions.

gottorf··on Growing proof that autonomous cars save lives
This happens in insurance all the time. Healthy people who eat right and exercise subsidize people with poor habits.

It appears to some degree that we as a society do not want risk priced optimally to each individual.

gottorf··on Where did all the public bathrooms go?
> we incarcerate people at a higher rate than any other advanced nation, BY FAR

Crime is committed at a higher rate than in any other advanced nation, though some of the others are catching up.

> The idea that we are soft on crime is insane

Not even a little bit insane. There are a million criminal laws on the books that do not get enforced at all. For example, I live in a state that is stereotypically conservative and "tough on crime" and any marijuana-related products are strictly illegal, most often at the felony level; yet I constantly smell it while driving on the road, no less! People are smoking while driving all the time. This cannot be described as anything but soft on crime.

The US system was overall built by and for people who are largely self-governing. This philosophy gets in the way of a true hard-on-crime pivot.

gottorf··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
Eternal September comes for us all.
gottorf··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
The UDHR is full of statements that wouldn't even be agreed upon in a room full of people in the US, let alone around the whole world:

> The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State.

Social progressives would strongly disagree.

> Everyone has the right to own property alone as well as in association with others.

Communists would strongly disagree.

> Everyone has the right to take part in the government of his country, directly or through freely chosen representatives.

Several UN member states that are absolute monarchies would strongly disagree.

We could go on and on. The UDHR is just a distillation of the postwar liberal consensus, voted on by only 58 countries back in 1948. Hardly the stuff that moral authorities are made of.

gottorf··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
> the UN as an entity, and to what it stands for

What do you imagine the UN stands for? Let's not make the mistake of judging a program by its name or intention and not by its output. Mind you, this is the same UN on whose Human Rights Council sat such eminent proponents of human rights as Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, Afghanistan, and Cuba.

Besides, the US historically funded about a third of the UN, out of 193 member states. It's farcical to suggest that the US is "actively hostile" to the thing that wouldn't even exist without its backing.

gottorf··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
> US isn't governed by anything at this point, except some rich people

> Sometimes, it's better just to say nothing :)

Right.

gottorf··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
> the highest court can't be trusted (life terms, appointed by the sitting president)

Do you really think that judges that have to run for reelection every few years can be more trusted to rule on cases fairly, according to the law, rather than bending to popular whims?

gottorf··on Felony charges for citizen deleting phone data at US Border
Rule of law is when laws as written by legislators are executed by the government as written and, when appropriate, judged by the judiciary as written, and at each step the words as written supersede the whims and feelings of the people involved. It doesn't imply that the state can't do anything meaningful because it's so hamstrung.

Statements like "the US does not have the rule of law" are laughable Reddit-tier comments that just make me sad for the current state of HN.

gottorf··on Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
> Most people agree on basic values

This isn't even true at a local level, let alone at the global scale.

gottorf··on Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter
> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen.

The rhetoric is all well and good, but if you look at the numbers according to the WMO[0], deaths from climate-related hazards have been dropping steadily in the 50-year period from 1970 to 2019, even as atmospheric CO2 went from ~326ppm to ~410ppm and the world population more than doubled. That's not a per capita decrease; it's an absolute decrease, from over 50k deaths worldwide the 70s to fewer than 20k in the 2010s.

All of this is due to the increased ability of humans to deal with what the climate might throw at them, mostly due to cheap energy unlocked by fossil fuels during that time. Remember, there are no countries that are both rich and have a low per capita energy usage. Surplus energy allows humans to build the infrastructure that makes them more resilient to disasters.

If I had to wager, more people will suffer and die in the coming decades from efforts to combat climate change (i.e. hamstring energy production and usage) than from climate change itself. You can already see this in the anti-air conditioning sentiment in parts of Europe.

[0]: https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/57564

gottorf··on The brain may be about to have its Ozempic moment
Another linguistic innovation[0] -- the idea that things that have been around for a long time are more likely to persist for another long time.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect

gottorf··on SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status
I'm not familiar with turbos, but to me it sounds like a CFD? How does a short position on a turbo prevent you from losing more than what you "put in"[0]? If you're shorting underlying X at price Y with a turbo, and price moves to Y+10, you're going to lose 10 times the leverage factor. You could have stop orders, but those are not guaranteed to fill at a price that would cap your loss to a desired amount.

> the broker is required by regulation to "just close and not ask for more"

Some American brokers will also forcibly close your position instead of issuing a margin call. Do you mean that under those national regulations, the broker is required to eat the losses?

[0]: in quotes, since with a short position it's not really the case that you put something in.

gottorf··on SpaceX bond worth 10% less than issue price – heading for junk bond status
> And if you are buying an instrument where you can lose more than you invested, the approach maybe wrong? :-)

This is precisely why shorting can lose more than you "invest", because you're not buying an instrument, you're selling it with the intent (or promise, depending on what kind of instrument it is) to buy it back later, hopefully at a lower price.

The risk is unbounded.

gottorf··on Sears Modern Homes
An interesting look at America's building history.

Of course, today's housing issues are not technological in nature, but political. It's an almost entirely self-imposed constraint on building. Building a house isn't very difficult; one or two people with a few tools can throw up a livable, if small, house in just a few days. For the beginner, Larry Haun's learning material[0] is enlightening.

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP-JfA5RPLs

gottorf··on Under federal rule, colleges must leave grads better off or lose financial aid
I think the GP's point was that the college is also bound, privately by accreditation bodies and publicly by a duty to society not to devalue the meaning of a degree, to not grant you a degree in XYZ if you fail to learn.
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