gota

I wrote a lot. Let me add a tldr:

any international trades happening in non-US dollar is an "acceleration" of dedollarizatiom, given that currently all trade is dollarized.

Original:

I don't known if I understand the spirit of the question. There are no metrics or tracking of how "dollarized" the international economy is because virtually all trade is done in dollars and there has been no risk of this changing for the past ?65? years

My original prediction for 2026 (not 2025, mind you) made in 2024 was based on a few factors, if I recall correctly, 1) the Russia-Ucraine war and related sanctions; 2) the open discussion in BRICS about trade in direct currencies; and 3) the then-promised isolatonist policies of Trump's second mandate.

What we've seen in 2025 makes all of those stronger I guess.

1) I don't know the status of the Russia-Ucraine war; all I know is it is a glaring sign of the end of Pax Americana (as is the Israel-Palestine genocide/war, by the way, which the US would -not- have allowed given the strong internal opposition and negative popularity among the American public). So sanctions of Russia notwistanding, that status quo, which strongly related to dollar as reserve currency, is either agonizing or dead.

2) Trump and the US attempted a very strong response to the (first ever?) trades in local currency between Brazil and China, mostly in the form of targeted tariffs (all discourse about Bolsonaro and whatever being the motivation for tariffing Brazilian imports being, in my opinion, political smoke and mirrors). I don't think it worked. I think BRICS might press on this. If the mercosur/EU trade deal goes through it will also be a strong force towards trade in Euros/Reais/Pesos directly I believe.

3) I don't think I need to clarify; tariffs and other issues brought on by the current US government were severely negative to the placement of the US as a preferred trade partner. This is to beyond economic choice; active anti-american sentiment are at all times high in countries like Canada, Denmark, and Mexico, all historically aligned with the US. This may not seem that relevant but come election cycles in those and other countries we might see platforms/candidates that openly propose to "secede" from the US hegemony international order. If that happens, removing US military bases is a first go. Alternatives to the US "petrodollar" a close second.

Dedollarization accelerates.

I'm keeping that prediction for 2026 from a late 2024 thread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42405149

I'm not through the article but reached that point - I believe the author may be alluding to ICE and fear of persecution rather than changes to H1B or other visas.

I may be incorrect but that was my impression in part because no one, in my experience, takes seriously the premise that H1B is a "brainy immigrant" visa

Point (2) seems wrong intuitively. "Chopping" away UBI would be much more difficult _because_ it is not associated to a specific constituency.

Not only would there be more people on the streets protesting against real or perceived cuts;

there also would be fewer movements based on exclusivist ideologies protesting _in favour of cuts_*

* e.g. racist groups in favour of cutting some kinds of welfare because of racial associations

How is (the assumption one needs) trying multiple times "lazier" than once?

> Or: Good Will Hunting. The entire movie feels like it could’ve been skipped if literally any emotionally intelligent person said to Matt Damon’s character: “I feel like you have a tremendous amount of intellectual potential that you’re wasting here — why are you getting in fights rather than trying to do something interesting?”

This person did not watch Good Will Hunting. I'm not a fan of the film, I just know for a fact several characters do this at several times. That is, y'know, the plot.

I haven't read further enough to discern whether this is AI slop, but it doesn't look promising.

My go-to example for this is Turing. The genius of our field, and apparently duped into credulity about telepathy (probably based on faulty/fraudulent results by people at then-respected institutions)

At work, I bridged the gap between task tracking software and mandatory reports (compliance, etc.). Essentially, it handles distributing the effective working hours of workers across projects, according to a varied and very detailed set of constraints (people take time off, leave the company and come back, sick days, different holidays for different remote workers, folks work on multiple stuff at the same time, have gaps in task tracking, etc.).

In the words of a colleague responsible for said reports it 'eliminated the need for 50+ people to fill timesheets, saves 15 min x 50 people x 52 weeks per year'

It has been (and still is) in use for 10+years already. I'd say 90% of the current team members don't even know the team used to have to "punch a clock" or fill timesheets way back.

Did you do a Show HN thread on this? Do it so I can 'favorite' it please

> I don’t really believe in the threat of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence—human-level intelligence) partly because I don’t believe in the possibility of AGI and I’m highly skeptical that the current technology underpinning LLMs will provide a route to it.

I'm on board with being skeptical that LLMs will lead to AGI; but - there being no possibility seems like such a strong claim. Should we really bet that there is something special (or even 'magic') about our particular brain/neural architecture/nervous system + senses + gut biota + etc.?

Don't, like, crows (or octopuses; or elephants; or ...) have a different architecture and display remarkable intelligence? Ok, maybe not different enough (not 'digital') and not AGI (not 'human-level') but already -somewhat- different that should hint at the fact that there -can- be alternatives

Unless we define 'human-level' to be 'human-similar'. Then I agree - "our way" may be the only way to make something that is "us".

Yes, but even if we all agree the problem with education at scale remains - there is a very finite and limited amount of 'attention' from craftsmen/masters to distribute, which limits the amount of apprentices.

The alternative has been to massify education for 'students' (not apprentices) in passive lectures with 'exercises/homework', which does not work as well for most things and particularly for crafts.

BTW for a very minor portion of the population the 'student' route is just as effective as the 'apprentice' route, but these are in my experience the exception

Minor part of the article, but the thing about "tutorial Hell" is very true:

> Students would watch (or fall asleep to) 6-hour videos, code along in their own editors, feel like they got it, and then freeze up the moment they had to write anything from scratch. Classic tutorial hell.

This is why, across history, the tried and true method of learning a craft is an apprenticeship. You, the junior, tag along a senior. You work under a shop that is led by a senior-senior that is called a master. Apprentices become craftsmen, craftsmen become masters. AFAIK, the master does not 'offload' project guidance into non-craftsmen, it is an expected part of the craftsmen role to be project/product managers/owners.

I've said this a million times to close friends and at this point I'm only half joking. We, and I'm including myself in the 'developer' crowd although I may not deserve it, have really dropped the ball in not being a 'guild' since way back when. At least since the late 1980's; and certainly since before the Original Boom of software dev as a profession (I'm assuming it was late 90's? I know not)

(Although I suspect that if that were the case we'd have fewer developers throughout the 00s and 10s, which may have impacted the development of the field itself in unexpected, but likely negative, ways)

I think this paragraph needs to be considered at top priority, though:

"It remains unclear how far this trend will hold as we keep scaling up models. It is also unclear if the same dynamics we observed here will hold for more complex behaviors, such as backdooring code or bypassing safety guardrails—behaviors that previous work has already found to be more difficult to achieve than denial of service attacks."

So:

a) It's 'fixed' in ~250~500 for these sizes, may grow for even larger sizes. Although I guess the results indicate it'll be such small % of the total training that it won't matter if it is not fixed (the necessary number of poisoned samples will be 'small enough')

Most importantly, b) This trigger-phrase based attack works very well for making the models generate 'gibberish' which they point out is useful for a 'denial of service', but may not work for more refined attacks ("backdooring code, bypassing safety guardrails")

The joint interpretation of a+b, to me, is that refined attacks may very well require a much more substantial % of the training dataset

Also, as pointed below (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45530019) the trigger phrase must have to be an exceedingly rare thing in the 'clean' data?

I think open source contributions/projects will still be a way to gain verifiable experience.

Other than that, I guess developing software in some capacity while doing a non-strictly software job - say, in accounting, marketing, healtcare, etc. This might not be a relevant number of people if 'vibe coding' takes hold and the fundamentals are not learned/ignored by these accountants, marketers, healthcare workers, etc.

If that is the case, we'd have a lot of 'informed beginners' with 10+ years of experience tangentially related to software.

Edit: As a result of the above, we might see an un-ironic return to the 'learn to code' mantra in the following years. Perhaps now qualified 'learn to -actually- code'? I'd wager a dollar on that discourse popping up in ~5 years time if the trend of not hiring junior devs continues.

Just FYI, I stumbled upon this discussion the other day. This [1] is not the same source that was going around but states the same thing.

"STEM graduates, often hailed as the golden ticket to career success, are facing unemployment rates that might make you double-take. For instance, computer engineering majors are grappling with a 7.5% unemployment rate, while art history majors—yes, the ones often mocked for their “impractical” degrees—are sitting pretty at just 3%. What’s going on here?"

[1] https://capwolf.com/why-stem-grads-struggle-to-find-jobs-in-...

Actual numbers aside - I couldn't posssibly respect and admire Woz's statement more than I did.

My English may not be enough to express it but above all else it exhudes a "clarity of purpose" that is remarkable

> Fallure to comply monora de co compete per ravit evocation or accen to rasia venice systems can da micer injunctive

This might be some error from OCRing or otherwise trying to extract the content from a frame from the video, but I laughed here when I got to 'monora de co compete per ravit' and I googled it thinking it might be an arcane Latin legal expression

In my defense I am tired and Latin and monora de compete sounds Latiny

> Earlier this month, hackers using credentials purchased from a C&M employee were able to generate unauthorised PIX transactions

To be clear - This was a "bank robbery" (inside job, given usage of credentials?) and in absolutely zero ways affects trust in Pix as a user

As for your other point - thanks, our values and concerns are not aligned; it would be hard for us to agree on this

PIX is free for the users and imposes a very, very small fee (much smaller than any other non-cash payments) for banks etc.

(and cash is not usable for large amounts)

Disregarding the law (I'm ignorant) - why should PIX be "auditable"?

Almost everyone (very close to literally everyone) uses PIX and we have zero reported cases of mishap, errors or bad faith attacks...?

I quite frankly don't care that the system backed/created by the public services and imposed on banks is "closed"; to the point I'm generally curious as to what are the arguments for caring

Hope this does not sound dismissive - as a heavy user with no complaints for years, why should I care PIX is a black box?

Regarding the bit about Dallas being an example of rise & fall of prices it seems to be an issue of poorly worded (or explained) difference in time frame. I replied under another post with the details from the sources (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44635228)

Yes, that read weird to me, too, but it's because the 'lowering prices' are a snapshot, or recent trend (evidenced by the source being an index for April 2025 [1])

The 'sharpest rises' are from a long-term trend of a decade [2]:

> Over the past decade, the median home price has increased by 134 percent in Phoenix, 133 percent in Miami, 129 percent in Atlanta, and 99 percent in Dallas. (Over that same stretch, prices in New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles have increased by about 75 percent, 76 percent, and 97 percent, respectively).

Here's my pictorial illustration of the curve because I like drawing silly plots in txt

  |
  |              ____
  |          ___/    \ } Jan-April 2025
  |      ___/
  |  ___/
  |_/____________________
  |        |        |
  2015.....2020.....2025

[1] https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/dallas-home-prices-case-...

[2]https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/zoning-s...

I think you misunderstood the parent post. It states people in the UK are more aware/recognizant of "class" - not that they are less classist (i.e. prejudiced)

The example of lower class people not recognizing so in the US is meant to be an example of lack of class awareness/recognition; not of less (or more) classism (prejudice based on class)

Edit: as check wikipedia to see what he has worked on I see there is a section about a controversy and I realize the parent post may mean something about a moral characteristic of Joss Whedon, not his capability as a creator.

> Joss Whedon, who arguably shouldn't speak at all

Please argue. Isn't he a succesfull writer/director/showrunner?

Seems like he is one of the people able to "making the archetypes of blockbuster films into fun, likable people" (the core argument of the article), as evidenced by the fan following of Buffy, success of the first Avengers movie, etc.

It is possible, if not likely, that the failings of one or more of his projects are not his fault (as we have evidence he is able to make fun things to watch)

This is surprising to me. Are you implying/saying it's no big deal that 2 elected officials were shot (one killed) because they are "only" state-level politicians?

This is not a good sign for democracy in the US. I think a healthy response would be protests, investigations, state and federal "comissions" looking into domestic political terrorism, etc. A whole lot of consequences. Instead there is nothing.

In contrast, in Brazil (not even a best example of a healthiest democracy) the assassination of a city councilwoman (city! not even state!) has been a dominant story in politics for many years and has never completely fallen out of public attention. It's been close to a decade!

I'm not one to quickly say "fascism" or to spell out doom but even to me this is a crystal clear sign of a system starting to fail...

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marielle_Franco

Just an opinion, but -

An entire cohort born between 1985~1995 reached their 30s in what they perceived as a far, far worse situation all around (financially foremost, but also almost every social aspect) than their parents.

Of varying importance for different groups/cohorts - going to college because it the rite of passage for adulthood.

Similar - this is where I found out about Komiku's music; I must've heard to thousands of hours of this while writing code

How does "Currently unlicensed" work?

I'd assume this (at least to the extent of whatever is published before a license is specified) be automatically assumed to be MIT license or something. Is that right?

If a license that is more restrictive than that assumed default is chosen, can it be retroactively applied to the content that was published before it was chosen?

None of these are rhetorical, I'm curious how this works

From the same author:

https://acoup.blog/2019/06/21/collections-punching-through-s...

https://acoup.blog/2019/07/04/collections-archery-distance-a...

If you're not yet aware of it (unlikely as it made it 'big' in the overall internet), I believe the video from Tod's Workshop with actual experimentation is a must see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBxdTkddHaE

There is a sequel and many other related videos, but this one is the source for a very famous clip (at 20:50 - https://youtu.be/DBxdTkddHaE?si=oISZqXvdv8ymoCDi&t=1239)