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gibybo

1,365 karma · joined June 5, 2009

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gibybo··on Renaissance Technologies
Yes, but on a $ basis rather than a % basis.
gibybo··on Renaissance Technologies
There would be no disbursements from one fund to the other. Fund A would purchase an asset slowly over time. When it has finished purchasing the asset, fund B would purchase that asset quickly at a scale large enough to increase the market price of it. As the price rose, fund A would sell its position.

The net effect is that fund A sees increased returns and fund B sees decreased returns.

gibybo··on Renaissance Technologies
Note that RenTec also runs two other funds that are larger than the Medallion Fund, but both under perform the index.

On a completely unrelated note, if I were interested in creating a fund that appeared to have market beating returns for decades and I wasn't concerned about the legal consequences, here's one way I might do it:

I would create fund A and B and seed them with some initial capital. For fund A, I would create a machine learning model that took in lots of opaque parameters and hire a team of very smart mathematicians and computer scientists to optimize this model to perform profitable trades. In order to easily generate alpha, I would subtlety feed in some parameters that were correlated to the future market moving actions of fund B. Since I also run fund B, I uniquely have this information.

I would use the performance of fund A to woo outside investors into investing their money into fund B. In order to prevent fund A from overtaking fund B in asset value and thus diminishing the value of the subtle signals, I would close the fund to the public when it got sufficiently large and periodically distribute its assets to its investors.

In order to avoid any of my employees from eventually figuring out what's going on and reporting me, I'd incentivize them to avoid looking too closely by requiring that they invest a large part of their income into the fund with a long vesting date. I'd also require them to sign a long term non-compete so that they cannot work anywhere else in the financial industry if they leave.

gibybo··on Schwab Removes U.S. Stock, ETF and Options Commissions
This only applies if you have a margin account, right?
gibybo··on Gas Plants Will Get Crushed by Wind, Solar by 2035: Study
300 wh/mile seems to be about what most electric cars achieve. 10 miles/day * 300 wh/mile * 30 days = 90 kWh.

The average monthly energy consumption per capita in the U.S. is about 1000 kWh[1], so in order to double that with electric cars every individual would need to drive an average of 110 miles per day.

[1] https://www.worlddata.info/america/usa/energy-consumption.ph...

gibybo··on WeWork Co-Founder Has Cashed Out at Least $700M Via Sales, Loans
Do the investors in WeWork just allow him to do this? Did he hide it from them? This seems like an obvious self-dealing situation any experienced investor would be watching out for.
gibybo··on The Bitcoin Blockchain Visualized in 3D
The original 9 page paper by Satoshi is probably the best place to start for a technical introduction: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

The Bitcoin wiki has a lot more information, although it can be hard to navigate: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Main_Page

For some more modernish innovations in Blockchain tech in general, I would also recommend the Ethereum white paper: https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper. Ethereum re-imagines the Bitcoin protocol with a turing complete virtual machine that runs on the chain itself.

gibybo··on The Bitcoin Blockchain Visualized in 3D
That is correct, there is a maximum number of transactions that can occur on the main Bitcoin chain (it was ~7/second at the beginning, and I think it still is) so there is effectively an auction to get on the chain.

As ignaloidas explained in another comment though, this doesn't include the Lightning Network which is where most everyday transactions would occur.

gibybo··on The Bitcoin Blockchain Visualized in 3D
A typical block has on the order of 1000 transactions and they occur on average once every 10 minutes.

The 30k number that the website gives in the beginning is talking about the number of transactions that have not yet made it into a block but are currently being replicated among nodes in the network. Each transaction includes a bounty to be paid to the miner that includes it in a block. Most of these 30k pending transactions have a low fee and are usually ignored by most miners, but may eventually make it into one when an altruistic miner manages to mine a block, or when a greedy miner has no better options. If they don't make it into a block relatively soon, nodes will stop replicating them.

gibybo··on Bitcoin mining on an Apollo Guidance Computer
>Ethereum is replacing proof-of-work with proof-of-stake in 2020, which should help with this.

I seem to remember that proof-of-stake has been coming 'next year' for about 3 years now.

gibybo··on Carrier Group in Recent UFO Encounters Had New Air Defense Tech
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
gibybo··on Security Company Building an International Database of Banned Bar Patrons
>how would you feel if online retailers put together a private list of problem customers who sent a suspicious number of returns

They've been doing that for years already: https://www.thestreet.com/story/13078117/1/returnaholics-bew...

gibybo··on Banks Look Safer with Deposits
>If the bank is hiding the risks, that's another issue - I agree.

I think the point is that this creates a lot of incentive for the bank to hide the risks that they wouldn't otherwise have. Perhaps more importantly, it doesn't incentive them to prioritize things that might help them measure the risk better, so those sorts of improvements never get made and it just deteriorates over time.

gibybo··on SpaceX Gets FCC Approval to Sell Wireless High-Speed Home Internet from Space
They are tracked and avoided, just like all the other satellites already up there. Low earth orbit is a large place, you could increase that number by many orders of magnitude before you'd have to start worrying.
gibybo··on The black hole picture is both an astonishing achievement and a deceptive image
The black hole that they revealed is about 1,000 times larger than the one at the center of our milky way. So even though it's also 1,000 times further away, it's about the same angular diameter in the sky. Same size but less stuff in the way/more active makes it an easier target.
gibybo··on Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup
I think we're in agreement, but Tesla has a lot of customers buying into the "Full Self Driving" promise. If you look at the "Full Self Driving" package currently available for $5k on their website, you'll notice that it doesn't even claim to be able to drive without a driver. It talks about doing what EAP can do today + doing it on city streets. What EAP can do today is basically adaptive cruise control with lane keeping and automatic lane change (which also requires you to hold the steering wheel).
gibybo··on Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup
>At best, Google will be making cars that pull over to the shoulder and call for help in a few years.

Ya, that's pretty much what I was getting at.

gibybo··on Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup
>back in Jan/Feb

May 2017

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280

gibybo··on Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup
If I could bet $100 to win $1 that they don't end up in a self-driving fleet at the end of the lease, I would.
gibybo··on Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup
"full autonomy" means lots of different things to different people.

Some people think of it as being able to drive anywhere at any time in any condition. This is unlikely to ever happen before AGI. What matters in Tesla's case is more likely being able to drive in some small number of places in specific circumstances without a physical driver in the vehicle (but possibly a remote one to handle unusual circumstances).

Now I don't think Tesla is going to even get to that in 3 years, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Waymo there.

gibybo··on Tesla Shakes Up Model 3 Lineup
The hardware is like $1-2k, the $5k is just what they charge for the feature.
gibybo··on Sweeping Reform Would Tax Capital Gains Like Ordinary Income
It's funny that you mention Warren Buffet, because basically everything he has done to expand capital has been through Berkshire Hathaway, which pays ordinary income tax on investment gains rather than the lower capital gains rate.
gibybo··on Something on Mars Is Producing Gas Usually Made by Living Things on Earth
Also worked for me in Chrome's incognito
gibybo··on Lyft prices IPO at top of range
>But isn't it possible to bet against a stock?

Yes, there are a few ways to do it.

>As in someone promising you to buy stock X at price Y at future date Z? So when the stock dips, you make money.

This would be either a put option or a future (depending on whether you have the option or the obligation to sell it on date Z), but it carries the risk that the market will not lower the price prior to date Z. Put options also aren't available at the same time as IPO, I believe LYFT puts won't be available until late next week.

You can also short the stock, which is simply borrowing shares from someone else, selling them, then buying back the shares at a hopefully lower price to repay the loan at a later date. The advantage is that you don't have to specify a certain date, but you may be forced to pay back the loan earlier than you'd like if the price increases beyond your collateral or more people want to borrow the stock than lend it.

>If yes, and this is such a clear cut case

The reality is that this isn't actually such a clear cut case. There are many people with billions of dollars at their disposal betting both ways. Some will be right, some will be wrong. The price they (and everyone else) have agreed to bet against each other with will be the market price.

gibybo··on China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do
>Either things get worse for everyone, or humanity starts to control itself.

Controlling itself doesn't have to mean population control. It just has to mean taking care of our environment in a sustainable way. The number of people we have been able to support in a sustainable way has increased by several orders of magnitude over the past tens of thousands of years and I don't see a compelling reason that trend needs to stop. Climate change isn't tied to population, it's tied to greenhouse gas emissions. We already have the technology demonstrating that we don't need to emit greenhouse gasses.

gibybo··on China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do
>What will conjure up the constant resources

Probably the sun and small scale fusion for at least the next thousand years or so. Eventually other stars/large scale fusion/some type of energy production we haven't discovered yet.

>and space

There is enormous amounts of room left on earth. Everyone on earth could have an acre of land to themselves with 10x the current population, and that completely ignores multi-level construction (either above or below the surface). But long term there is a lot of space outside of earth.

gibybo··on China's e-buses dent oil demand more than electric cars do
>If the price were to include a carbon tax, it would likely be at least ten times higher and we would very quickly get rid of our beloved gas guzzlers.

Wouldn't you expect a carbon tax to be similar in price to the cost to get the carbon back out of the air?

CO2 released per barrel of oil (when converted to various fuels and burned) appears to be around 300-450 kg [1][2], but we can round up to 500 kg to be conservative and make the math easier.

The cost to take it back out of the air appears to run between $30-$200/tonne depending on how you do it [3][4][5]. I think it's worth speculating that this cost is likely to drop precipitously as the demand and scale at which we need to do it increases, but we can very conservatively stick with $200/tonne for now.

Crude oil is at about $59/barrel today. $200 * 0.5 tonnes = $100. So with the most conservative estimates, it wouldn't quite triple the cost.

[1] https://pyrolysium.org/how-much-co2-produced-by-burning-one-...

[2] http://numero57.net/2008/03/20/carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-...

[3] https://www.c2es.org/document/the-cost-of-u-s-forest-based-c...

[4] https://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/19/carbon-capture-expensiv...

[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration

gibybo··on A new class-action lawsuit takes aim at real estate agents and their 6% fee
He sold his as FSBO. It's highly unlikely the real estate agent brought the buyer since they hate FSBOs. It's much more likely the buyer found the house himself/herself.
gibybo··on Herpes Virus Reactivation in Astronauts During Spaceflight
>That also means that i never going to get it anywhere else on my body (once any one site in the body gets infected with herpes the rest of the body develops immunity)

Do you have a source for that? I have somewhat suspected that was the case based on some other things I've heard, but I have been unable to find any real sources on it.

gibybo··on Ask HN: Is it practical to create a software-controlled model rocket?
Couldn't you develop some sort of servo-controlled thrust deflector that allowed you to effectively reduce the net thrust without throttling the engine itself? It would be similar to thrust reversal on jet engines, but you would only do it partially since you're aiming for thrust reduction instead of reversal.
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