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fuoqi

1,554 karma · joined May 3, 2020

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fuoqi··on EU chief opens door for Canada to become 'associate member'
>My point was that the constitution of the US is based on ideas, and the country could be open to any territory, independent of location

It seems you do not know anything about Puerto Rico and its history of shameful US meddling.

fuoqi··on Forgotten History of Small Nuclear Reactors (2015)
The existing "big" nuclear reactors are already more or less in the "happy" range. The problem is irregular building schedule (you can have 10 reactors in works today and 0 for the next 50 years) and extreme regulatory overhead.

Ideally, you need a "pipeline" with one reactor being built every 2-5 years and streamlined regulatory environment where you can use the same project "template" with minimal adjustments. This way building expertise is not lost (i.e. the industry does not need to re-learn everything for every project, which is very costly) and even can be accumulated to reduce costs further. It applies not only to the building part, but also to regulatory bodies.

The problem is that you need to operate ~100 reactors for this, so it can work only for large economies able to provide the "baseline" demand. China and to a lesser extent Russia do this, which does result in significantly lower nuclear plant building costs for them. Europe, SK, and US have dropped the ball hard here.

fuoqi··on Seven Russian banks have moved to a certificate authority run by the state
>I hope we see a different CA for each ccTLD in the future.

Completely agree with this and IMO it's how the system should've operated from the very start. Unfortunately, I highly doubt that the CA cartel will let go of the power (and associated cash flow) voluntarily.

fuoqi··on Seven Russian banks have moved to a certificate authority run by the state
>I recognize that Russia is making this change for MitM spying

Nope, they do it primarily out of necessity, because of the mounting pressure on the previously used CAs. The MitM capability is just a nice side bonus.

>So I empathize with the sarcasm, but best not to offer MitM proponents (whether in Russia or the U.S. or elsewhere!) an argument that could be used against your viewpoint.

If browsers truly cared about user security they would've provided reasonable conditions for supporting national CAs:

- Limit its authority only to respective national domain zones.

- Mandate use of Certificate Transparency handled by an independent third party to prevent MitM.

But this debacle only shows that western-controlled (especially financial) systems can be and will be used as a pressure tool, so any large sovereign nation will not trust them as they would in the past. And the taken actions only contribute to further fragmentation of the Internet across national and block borders.

fuoqi··on Seven Russian banks have moved to a certificate authority run by the state
Nope, MitMing will be done by the SORM system [0] using certificates signed by the Ministry of Digital "Development" which will be trusted the Yandex Browser, which will be widely installed out of necessity by ordinary Russians to access banks and subsequently other Web resources.

Surely this will improve user security and trust in the existing Web PKI system in non-Western countries. /s

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SORM

fuoqi··on Atomarine: Nuclear Data Centers at Sea
Nuclear submarines often operate without any escort. Russian nuclear icebreakers and floating SMRs also do not have heavy military escorts.
fuoqi··on Norway greenlights first full-scale ship tunnel
I wonder how much would it cost to build a tunnel as an alternative to the Panama canal to fundamentally resolve the drought issues. 1.8 km is comparable to ~80 km (probably a shorter tunnel will suffice) and dimensions are also similar (at least for the old Panamax).
fuoqi··on Germany Law to Force Algorithm Boost for State-Approved News
Because it is a "public broadcast", so it obviously "Cannot Give In To Government Pressure": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9tzoGFszog
fuoqi··on Iran demands Big Tech pay fees for undersea Internet cables in Strait of Hormuz
>the USD doesn't have strength and power because oil sales are denominated in dollars. You have it backwards.

Not quite. The "petrodollar" deal has helped to bootstrap and anchor the USD strength at a somewhat critical moment of history after the gold peg was "temporarily" suspended, which was effectively a default of the US government (second in the 20th century!).

Sure, today trade of oil in USD no longer plays a significant role in supporting its dominance, but it still plays a role. Together with other factors (such as increased weaponization of the USD-led financial system) rise of alternative settlement systems corrodes the network effects on which USD relies. Each blow in isolation may be insignificant, but their accumulation could become critical owning to the extreme non-linearity of the network effects.

fuoqi··on France's aircraft carrier located in real time by Le Monde through fitness app
For tracking of military ships it's much better to use radar imaging satellites (e.g. see [0]). They can cover a larger area, see ships really well, and almost not affected by weather.

I will not be surprised if China has a constellation of such satellites to track US carriers and it's why Pentagon keeps them relatively far from Iran, since it's likely that China confidentially shares targeting information with them.

[0]: https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Coperni...

fuoqi··on JPEG Compression
>it's literally modeled on the density of cone cells in the human retina

It's related to it, but not "literally modeled" on it. This number is from experiments where people are asked to equalize perceived brightness of two lights with different colors. The results are than averaged out and interpolated using polynomials to create a color model [0].

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_model

fuoqi··on No leap second will be introduced at the end of June 2026
>The middle for the day, on our time keeping devices, being light outside goes all the way back to the first sundials over 3,000 years ago.

Most of the world is perfectly fine with 12:00 not being synchronized with high noon [0]. And some jurisdictions still semiannually f*k with it further using DST. Generously assuming the current time keeping system will survive for ~6k years (looking at the leap seconds accumulation rate for the last 50 years) we can just shift timezones by one hour.

[0]: https://64.media.tumblr.com/4a9a4613f057d3b5f17ec548e6ac06d1...

fuoqi··on No leap second will be introduced at the end of June 2026
You clearly do not know how much havoc and complexity leap seconds introduce into various systems. This is why leap seconds are likely to be phased-out [0]. It's effectively an admission that use of leap seconds in the "base" time was a mistake.

>We convert timestamps to and from date+times all the time.

If you do not account for time zones during this conversion, then you are not qualified to implement such conversions.

It's fine to use 86400 seconds for durations (e.g. "this computation will finish in 1d 8h 20m 34s"), but it's absolutely not fine to use it while dealing with datetimes.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap_second#Phase-out_and_futu...

fuoqi··on No leap second will be introduced at the end of June 2026
Computer systems (most importantly, UNIX) should've been using TAI [0] from the beginning. Human-readable time in turn should be computed from it using periodically updated time zones database which would include offset between TAI and UTC. By eliminating leap seconds we effectively re-invented TAI with a weird offset. While I am in favor of eliminating leap seconds as a hacky way to fix the current mess, it's sad to see that we added yet another quirk to the already complicated system of datetime keeping.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Time

fuoqi··on British Columbia is permanently adopting daylight time
>Contrast that with China and Russia

The linked map is outdated regarding Russia. Here is an up to date map: https://64.media.tumblr.com/4a9a4613f057d3b5f17ec548e6ac06d1...

fuoqi··on The Life Cycle of Money
>The article is adamant that "this is not printing money," and then gives very technical explanations that are honestly difficult to untangle.

Because it's BS. In the modern fiat system the most basic form of money printing is expansion of the central bank's balance sheet. It creates the "base money". Sure, technically the government issues debt to "borrow" the new money, but everyone familiar with the system understands the the debt will never be paid out in the classical sense and it will be just re-financed by future expansion of the central bank's balance sheet. So the end effect is the same: new units of the base money enter circulation contributing to inflation.

But there are other forms of "money printing" as well. Every time a bank issues a credit, in a certain sense, it also "prints money". As long as the bank system functions as usual, it's indistinguishable from the printing done by the government+central bank. This is why bank de-regulation can have the same effects as the classical money printing, but with additional risks of potential credit contraction caused by bad loans (though they are minimized by central banks more often than not...).

fuoqi··on Trump's global tariffs struck down by US Supreme Court
You assume that the executive branch would willingly follow the court decision. I think it's naive (doubly so for the current administration) and it's more likely that the tariffs will be re-introduced under a different sauce and that refund requests will not be processed using some flimsy excuses.
fuoqi··on Trump's global tariffs struck down by US Supreme Court
This is why I mentioned "litigation" in my comment, i.e. you probably would need to separately sue the government if you want to refund the tariffs.
fuoqi··on Trump's global tariffs struck down by US Supreme Court
Sure, if you are ready to sue the US government for that. /s

I dunno if a class-action lawsuit is realistic or not in this case or how likely a court decision stating that all tariff revenue must be refunded.

fuoqi··on Trump's global tariffs struck down by US Supreme Court
Let the fun of returning hundreds of billions of the illegal tariff revenue back to importers through litigation begin!
fuoqi··on Data breach: DOGE 'accidentally' leaked the whole Social Security database [pdf]
Hopefully, it will result in finally dropping use of SSNs as "secret" identifying person's identity and instead it will become an opaque ID which is safe to share.
fuoqi··on UK offshore wind prices come in 40% cheaper than gas in record auction
This does not work at scale. Sure, there is plenty of anecdotes how you can successfully play this game as a consumer living in a rural house with electric car, power wall, and rooftop solar, but try to telling about it to someone living in a high-rise apartment or to a heavy industry business. Your preaching will fall on deaf ears.

IIRC there are several utilities in the UK which provide option to price electricity dynamically, but they are not popular because people do not want to play this game. They want reliable supply of electricity for reasonable prices. Trying to mold consumption to satisfy intermittency of generation is nothing more than shifting the externality akin to telling people "you must plant trees to offset CO2 emissions!".

fuoqi··on UK offshore wind prices come in 40% cheaper than gas in record auction
1) Introduce a lot of intermittent generation into energy grid without sufficient amount of storage capacity.

2) Use marginal pricing model which effectively guarantees windfall profits for those sources.

3) Utilization of peaking power plants falls, but you still have to keep them because there is not enough storage capacity.

4) Peaking power plants rise generation costs to offset the lower utilization, further adding to the windfall profits.

5) You need more grid capacity to handle energy transfers from distributed generation sources.

5) ????

6) Act surprised when people loudly complain about electricity bills despite abundant "cheap" generation.

Intermittency of generation is an externality (same as CO2 emissions) and should be priced accordingly. People are willing to pay premium for supply stability, but the current pricing model does no account for that. Trying to change consumption habits (like smart grids, dynamic pricing, etc.) works poorly, especially for such vital resource as electricity.

I think there should be some kind of price penalty for intermittent sources dependent on total ratio of intermittent generation in the mix. At least until grid-scale energy storage technology will be advanced enough to store approximately week of total energy consumption.

fuoqi··on ESA Sentinel-1D delivers first high-resolution images
I wonder if China has a constellation of similar satellites with the primary function to track the US CVBGs and provide aiming info for their "carrier killer" systems.
fuoqi··on Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?
There are several factors which contribute to the "rosy" official picture:

- A lot of people participate in the gig economy instead of getting registered as unemployed.

- AI has eroded a lot of employment opportunities for graduates, i.e. people relatively active on social networks.

- Official data can be horribly inaccurate (phone surveys in 2025, seriously?) with grossly outdated models (remember the recent huge revisions?). Political pressure does not help here either.

- The unemployment stats do not account for significant downgrades in salary and working conditions. They will show the same picture for a person with a cushy office job and the same person working 2 jobs in retail from paycheck-to-paycheck.

fuoqi··on The time has finally come for geothermal energy
Because unless you sit on top of a volcano, amount of renewable geothermal energy is minuscule. In most places on Earth it's somewhere around 40 mW/m2 (i.e. accounting for conversion losses you need to capture heat from ~500 m2 to renewably power one LED light bulb!). In other words, in most places geothermal plant acts more like a limited battery powered by hot rock, so unless drilling is extremely cheap, it does not make economic sense compared to other energy sources.
fuoqi··on Neros has raised $121M to build military drones
>THAT's the competition for an FPV drone.

Russia uses plenty of artillery shells daily even today. Its own production easily outpaces NATO countries and they buy a lot from NK in addition to that.

Though they try to increase amount of "smart" munitions like Krasnopol, since they can be more cost effective than "dumb" shelling when you have guidance from drones.

>both Ukraine and Russia know they are easy to jam

Tell that to fiber drones. They are used in such large amounts that entire fields get covered in fiber. Even radio controlled drones quickly evolve with wing-based drones acting as re-translators and carriers.

And in the near future (year or two) we will see mass adoption of drones which are able to fly autonomously with on-board computer vision. Initially it will be just guidance during final stages after the target is locked, but later we will see drone swarms launched into the enemy's direction which autonomously search and destroy everything what moves.

>They've only been useful on very soft targets.

Sure. And this is why on both sides shiny tanks and MRAPs from parades and military exercises now look like Mad Max vehicles.

>The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb program was about taking dirt cheap iron bombs and slapping commodity electronics on it for cheap precision

Meanwhile Russia found a huge success with its UPMK-modified FABs.

The situation may change significantly if an effective and cheap (kinetic or laser) anti-drone defense is developed and mass-deployed, but for now the sword is much stronger than the shield.

fuoqi··on How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry
See this video on the economics of shipbuilding: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gk61ginOqo

Assembly of civilian merchant ships is a notoriously low-margin industry (as opposed to manufacturing of engines/propellers/control systems). You could heavily subsidize it (by protectionism measures and/or by juicing up your Navy) like the US does in the name of strategic importance, but be prepared to pay heavily for it. If you want to preserve shipbuilding capabilities for military reasons, then chasing after the Asian shipbuilding countries may not be the most efficient way of achieving this, i.e. it may be better to just invest into building of military ships and manufacturing of higher-margin components without bothering with the low-margin assembly stuff.

fuoqi··on The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity (1987) [pdf]
I think the whole sentence is a bad take. The described behavior can be perfectly rational (and thus commonly considered not "stupid") in the case when cost function of the acting person has a negative weight assigned to the counterpart group/person. In other words, when someone considers the other an "enemy", it makes sense to hurt the other even such act results in some direct losses.

Now, we can argue that playing negative-sum games is "stupid". And in most contexts of the modern human society such heuristic would be correct, but I would be really careful with a sweeping generalization, otherwise instead of a proper understanding of the underlying behavioral motivations you are likely to devolve into primitive explanations of someone being "stupid" or even "evil".

fuoqi··on Credit markets look increasingly dangerous
If it's an everything bubble, than it may not be a bubble, but a currency depreciation instead (not just $, but of all fiat currencies). Market participants openly expect a new round of bigger than ever money printing on the first serious signs of the R word (and BBB is just a precursor here).

Though, personally, I consider the AI trade to be currently deep in the overripe bubble territory.

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