fspeech

Yet banning it creates the largest opportunity for manipulation whereby Trump gets to play the hero to a very large number of Americans.

So many people focus only on TikTok instead of their fellow citizens' rights that are being trampled upon. Even NYT writers happily insinuate that all will be forgotten in no time. Cutting people's social links is not benign. An American may be happily watching Italian content, and when you cut her link it doesn't follow that the Italian creators will move their content to some other platform accessible to that American. Same for Americans with foreign followers. Americans may also have trouble reconnecting with American creators. It boggles the mind that these losses are given so little thought.

Not sure why you say "simply". There is nothing simple about it: there are issues of forced technology transfers; there is the problem that TikTok is a global platform and revenue generation is across the border. These are just things that immediately come to mind and I am sure there are more.

There is nothing inherently good about wafer scale. It's actually harder to dissipate heat and enable hybrid bonding with DRAM. So the gp is entirely correct that you need to actually show higher silicon utilization to be even considered as being something worthwhile.

It's a new world where the capital owners just want more dollars. The trade is to sell dollars to those who comply with US's wishes.

You can get the technical report from Deepseek by Googling. Their reports are very well regarded.

It depends. Technology products have been deflating for decades. It is actually what keeps the overall inflation in check.

"then why not look it up?"

Why do people write literature reviews? You write about what you think is significant.

Published papers and patents are public information.

If you want to have superhuman performance like AlphaZero series you need a verifier (valuation network) to tell you if you are on the right track. Lean (proof checker) in general can act as a trusted critic.

That's a very static view of the affairs. Once you have a master AI, at a minimum you can use it to train cheaper slightly less capable AIs. At the other end the master AI can train to become even smarter.

This analysis makes very little sense. While US has been restricting certain fab equipment for advanced nodes the restriction on actual chips only affects very few categories. The affected like GPU and HBM numbers at most in the millions and there's no way for these to matter in an measurement like the aggregate chip count that numbers in many billions. Meanwhile Chinese chip export actually went up 11.4% in unit count. Many Korean memory chips are actually made in China and many chips go to China for packaging and testing so will show up in both import and export data.

China tried to promote TDSCDMA for 3G, which also didn't work. At least they didn't make it their exclusive choice. In their more successful cases they didn't pick winners.

Japan does not have a big enough domestic market, which means their industrial policy requires a lot of foreign cooperation to be effective. Once others started seeing them as a threat their game was over.

China has far less farm land per capita compared to the US. Until the majority of excess farm labor are shifted off the land they do not need suppression to keep wages low. They just need to raise mobility, which they have done by building roads and railways.

Unless you believe America will buy less overall why would the new tariffs make that big a difference to China? Say America shifts dollar amount X to country A, what do you think country A does with the X dollars?

It would be abominable if employers can own their employees. It seems the better approach would be to strengthen the protection of whistle blowers so that if someone is pressured to reveal trade secrets from their previous jobs or do something else illegal they will be incentivized and empowered to not cooperate.

Most Chinese firms are also very short term focused as the Chinese would regularly lament. But somehow as a system they show persistence. A good example is the solar industry with many bankruptcies of the earlier giants, yet the baton gets passed on and they keep at it. I think because of the sky high savings rate they can afford (or even prefer) to have asset heavy industries. Even with financial failures the hard assets get passed on (as opposed to financial firms). Large projects are funded by loans. Banks prefer hard assets because they have collateral. Equity holders contribute through intangibles, i.e. operating expertise. If they fail banks foreclose and find new operators. US used to be like that. Railroads, airlines, factories etc routinely go through bankruptcies. But the equity markets learned their lessons and now hate hard assets. With heavy asset you need leverage to get decent ROE which makes you vulnerable to the business cycle and puts you in a weak position bargaining with third parties like unions, class action lawyers or debt holders.

For example, Chinese coffee chains are beating Starbucks in China:

"The pace of growth of domestic coffee chains has been impressive in the past year. Luckin’s performance has been especially strong. It has proved sceptics, who once saw its ultra-cheap coffee prices and high costs as a flawed business model, wrong this year. Luckin Coffee’s operating margin hit 15.3 per cent in the latest quarter as net revenues rose more than 40 per cent to $1.5bn, adding to annual sales that nearly doubled last year. It opened 1,400 new stores in the latest quarter, bringing its total to 21,300. Meanwhile, signs of the pressure are showing with same-store sales at Starbucks down 14 per cent in China last quarter."

"Automation, a rapidly growing trend in the local coffee chain industry, is helping margins during a time when costs are rising, especially delivery, sales and marketing expenses. Cotti, which has grown rapidly since it was founded in 2022, is pushing out coffee-making robots. Luckin has fully automated pour-over coffee machines. Luckin’s coffee robots and unmanned coffee shops were key to maintaining growth during the pandemic."

https://www.ft.com/content/5f070e18-3249-4bec-999b-56535cf25...

And you would be hard pressed to find anyone middle aged or older that actually drinks any coffee.

The word "middle class trap" only makes sense for China based on FX rate. Rich Chinese will continue to diversify if not outright emigrate while the middle class is trapped by necessity. Meanwhile the savings/investment rate is so high that the Chinese middle class will enjoy things that middle classes in few other countries have, once normalized for population density. Right now they already lead in industrial robots per worker (behind only South Korea and Singapore). They will lead in service robots per capita one day as well.

One needs to disaggregate data to get a full picture of what happens in China due to the rapid evolution of things. Forty years ago very few people went to college. It's a big bulge of population that are not going to upgrade their skills (mostly retired but things like learning to drive or using the popular apps are still difficult for most who have not already learned). They are also very used to hardship and will consume little even if they come into unexpected wealth (say from housing). The demographic shift will not play out as everywhere else.

You don't need LEOs to have text direct to cell. You can cover with a lot fewer satellites in higher otbits. China had this since last year, though through special protocols, not LTE, so you need new hardware. But the hardware fits into a regular cell phone.

Then they would have less people to work on projects like this and China would have more.

"There are limits to how far the United States can press its case with China. So far, the Chinese hack appears to involve only surveillance. That is something that the United States does regularly to Chinese telecommunications companies and is a form of espionage considered fair game as the two superpowers navigate a new, higher-stakes era using updated spy technology."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/22/us/politics/chinese-hack-...

If a candidate makes a totally false claim in the media should the election be invalid until every voter can prove that they have got the correct brain wash? Obviously not. There is no way to undo the damage from the false claim. So the results will be valid as long as election laws are followed and any dispute can be adjudicated in the courts.

They are probably referring to military tech here like ramjet. Civilian engine metrics are dominated by operating cost factors: fuel efficiency and maintenance etc.

Tesla gets the same rebate in China.

The English speaking call centers are probably better described as service imports than offshoring. There are no English speaking call centers based on the mainland to begin with. English speakers on the mainland would likely find much more lucrative opportunities than working in a call center.

Not everyone makes cars. Shrinking the global market shares of the ones that do will make the competitors' economy of scale worse as they withdraw from the ROW to hide behind the trade barriers.

I've never sensed any real desire for China to offshore to the Philippines, given its military alliance with the US. Maybe they dangle the prospect from time to time to try to pry the Philippines away. They have much friendlier targets in Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Malaysia at the top of the list.