TLS isn't for you, it's for your readers.
6,767 karma · joined January 2, 2016
TLS isn't for you, it's for your readers.
There really isn’t any other way to interpret OpenAI’s actions for the last few months.
Sure it could all be a feint to hide their amazing progress. Or it could be what it looks like.
Given the hype cycles of the last 20 years, I’m going with the second.
It isn't close at all.
The idea of scaling up LLMs and hoping is .. pretty silly.
Most HN people are probably too young to remember that the nanotech post-scarcity singularity was right around the corner - just some research and engineering way - which was the widespread opinion in 1986 (yes, 1986). It was _just as dramatic_ as today's AGI.
That took 4-5 years to fall apart, and maybe a bit longer for the broader "nanotech is going to change everything" to fade. Did nanotech disappear? No, but the notion of general purpose universal constructors absolutely is dead. Will we have them someday? Maybe, if humanity survives a hundred more years or more, but it's not happening any time soon.
There are a ton of similarities between nanotech-nanotech singularity and the moderns LLM-AGI situation. People point(ed) to "all the stuff happening" surely the singularity is on the horizon! Similarly, there was the apocalytpic scenario that got a ton of attention and people latching onto "nanotech safety" - instead of runaway AI or paperclip engines, it was Grey Goo (also coined in 1986).
The dynamics of the situation, the prognostications, and aggressive (delusional) timelines, etc. are all almost identical in a 1:1 way with the nanotech era.
I think we will have both AGI and general purpose universal constructors, but they are both no less than 50 years away, and probably more.
So many of the themes are identical that I'm wondering if it's a recurring kind of mass hysteria. Before nanotech, we were on the verge of genetic engineering (not _quite_ the same level of hype, but close, and pretty much the same failure to deliver on the hype as nanotech) and before that the crazy atomic age of nuclear everything.
Yes, yes, I know that this time is different and that AI is different and it won't be another round of "oops, this turned out to be very hard to make progress on and we're going to be in a very slow, multi-decade slow-improvement regime, but that has been the outcome of every example of this that I can think of.
There was no query language for updating files, or even inspecting anything about a file that was not published in the EAs (or implicitly do as with adapters), there were no multi-file transactions, no joins, nothing. Just rich metadata support in the FS.
The window there would at _least_ include the next 5 years, though obviously not ten.
Almost all of the operations done on actual filesystems are not database like, they are close to the underlying hardware for practical reasons. If you want a database view, add one in an upper layer.
Almost all of my classmates (not me, unfortunately) were from exceptionally wealthy families and excepting one none of them ever mentioned any childhood trauma. Instead they were precocious partiers who got into drugs despite being underage and going to the nightclubs in the seedy part of town - no one at the time was turning away hot young women or gay(for pay or real) young men. And the club scene was a drug scene. It still is.
I don’t think trauma is actually at the root of almost all drug abusers. The only first class abusers (pot and alcohol in serious quantities daily) that I know at the moment grew up in perfectly fine suburban families and are in good, non-narcissistic/controlling/etc relationships with their families. They’re just addicts who can’t stop. One of them is going to die from it, eventually, given his level of alcohol consumption.
Because you need a second generation of researchers.
This is because the output, being the input, steers directly into the tree as soon as the tree is in the context window.
None of the bullshit coming out of Musk, for example, is real, it’s not even plausible, it’s just lies for dumb people.