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fernandopj

517 karma · joined April 12, 2016

[ my public key: https://keybase.io/fmalk; my proof: https://keybase.io/fmalk/sigs/IL-J8atOjVkJqclDgorkG2OuidjEPYGFdok_dfOfp0o ]
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fernandopj··on First American pope elected and will be known as Pope Leo XIV
Yes, there's true to that, if only because "we" (latin americans) have given up to that discussion and just don't want to be confused with USA citizens.
fernandopj··on Google is winning on every AI front
Google is very good at recognizing existential threats. iOS were that to them and they built Android, including hardware, a novelty for them, even faster than mobile incumbents at the time.

They're more than willing to expand their moat around AI even if that means multiple unprofitable business for years.

fernandopj··on U.S. national-security leaders included me in a group chat
I guess you should re-read your given phrase, even by the light of parent posting. We have:

"populist political philosophy, movement, or regime" > appeal to populist rethoric, check

"exalts nation above individual" > mass deportations and gov firing, "means justify the ends", check

"centralized autocratic headed by dictatorial leader" > executive orders, disregard for federal laws, DOGE, check

"economic and social regimentation" > "nationalists" vs left, woke or whatever it is this week, check

"forcible suppression of opposition" > no-process deportations, name-calling opposition, incentives to war against neighboors, check

It's all fascism MO; you probably learned fascism in school by only learning the last days and steps before WWII, not how it started.

fernandopj··on NASA to launch space observatory that will map 450M galaxies
Unfounded, IMHO:

Musk is obviously a factor in space exploration.

Trump founded the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Space_Force

Also, as soon as China starts to put people on the Moon before Artemis can, I doubt POTUS would let that slide...

fernandopj··on SpaceX launches Starship Flight 8 - Loses attitude control
Even the Sep 2025 mission around the Moon seems unrealistic TBH
fernandopj··on Starship Flight 8 Launch
Did they say why yet?
fernandopj··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
Even if so, it's a poor course of action to invite the defending leader to a talk, and ask publicly for his unconditional surrender _under a threat and praising of the invader_
fernandopj··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
Google is your friend:

> did the us held elections while world war 2 was happening?

> Elections were held on November 7, 1944, during the final stages of World War II. President Franklin D. Roosevelt was easily re-elected to an unprecedented fourth term, and the Democratic Party retained their majorities in both chambers of Congress.

fernandopj··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
Current (by some of course) long-term analysis is that Ukraine is better commited to a long-term strategy of fiercely defending its rights, and it can grind Russia long term.

If you like Game Theory, is more as if Ukraine is much more prone to Total War than Russia possible will. Russia is spending their own GDP maintaining the war, Ukraining is "spending" its infrastructure but has foreign money being poured in.

That's why USA withdraw by Trump is so important to Russian interests.

fernandopj··on Zelensky leaves White House after angry meeting
Not on WWII levels, no. Also, not without serious blowback inhouse.

And fighting Ukraine has made Russia vulnerable in all other proxy wars and fronts, such as Syria recently.

fernandopj··on US Space Force reveals first look at secretive X-37B space plane in orbit
one would be excused to think you made this account just for the sake of aptronym and comment, but alas, 3k+ karma
fernandopj··on Rare Photos from Inside North Korea's 'Hotel of Doom' (2023)
Only if you count as "people dying and then the next". After a parcel of a population reaches adulthood, another generation is already expected. See the delta between GenX, Millenials, GenZ, and so on. I'd say that scenario is closer to 40 years.

The "coming sooner" problem with such low fertility rate is the bell-curve of your population by age. It starts to center on lower-productivity ages, more medical resources are needed. The system can't sustain itself with a thinner base on age.

fernandopj··on Commercial jet collides with Black Hawk helicopter near Reagan airport
Indeed. Imagine if prospect lawyers were prevented from retaking the bar exam.
fernandopj··on Kelly Can't Fail
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson "proved" an application of this theory back in ~2009 [1]. He was a the time promoting Full Tilt and commited to turn $1 dollar bankroll to $10000 by applying a basic strategy of never using more than a low % of his bankroll into one tournament or cash game session.

So, if one's skill would turn your session probability to +EV, by limiting your losses and using the fact that in poker the strongest hands or better tourney positions would give you a huge ROI, it would be just a matter of time and discipline to get to a good bankroll.

Just remember that for the better part of this challenge he was averaging US$ 0.14/hour, and it took more than 9 months.

[1] https://www.thehendonmob.com/poker_tips/starting_from_zero_b...

fernandopj··on Gukesh becomes the youngest chess world champion in history
This is great, but I think that % is about the "correctness" of the move, not how likely it is to be played next.
fernandopj··on Gukesh becomes the youngest chess world champion in history
That's it exactly. Engines will often show you at least 3 lines each with their valuation, and you can check the difficulty often just from that delta from 1st to 2nd best move. With some practical chess experience you can also "feel" how natural or exoteric the best move is.

In the WCC match between Caruana and Carlsen, they were at one difficult endgame where Carlsen (the champion) moved and engines calculated it was a "blunder" because there was a theoretical checkmate in like 36(!) moves, but no commentator took it seriously as there was "no way" a human would be able to spot the chance and calculate it correctly under the clock.

fernandopj··on Gukesh becomes the youngest chess world champion in history
He didn't become a Master yesterday to say "out of the gate", in his eyes he's been playing chess seriously for "all" of this life, and professionally for half of it.

It's a weird thing to say to someone who overcame so much while still young. He wasn't given anything "out of the gate".

fernandopj··on Valve developers discuss why Half Life 2: Episode 3 was abandoned
I agree. Matrix 3 introduces logic-breaking solutions that contradict the entire premise of that universe, and so the whole is lesser for it.

> Resolving at any cost is way worse than leaving something hanging.

Also agree. Matrix, Lost, Game of Thrones (TV), How I Met Your Mother, they all lost "replayability" because you might care about the characters and the beginning of their journey, but if you know it's all moot or unsatisfactory there's not so many incentives to revisit it. I think GoT really made TV aware of how important it is to a series to have a good, consistent ending.

Game of Thrones' (the book series) fans have a theory about the "Mereenese Knot", a plot that became so convoluted that GRR Martin possibly just don't know how to advance the story in a consistent way, and it's stuck.

fernandopj··on Starship's Sixth Flight Test
Require. I answered that in this same subtopic.
fernandopj··on Starship's Sixth Flight Test
It's a mandate for the next Artemis Mission. [1]

The HLS (Spaceship) will need many refuels at orbit in order to get to the Moon and back. That means at least a dozen of fully-loaded Heavy launches to LEO just so each one of them can load a bit of fuel into HLS. The fuel in orbit can't sit idle for too long, or it deteriorates; I haven't found a limit on days for that, but a week-long launch window is considered a dealbreaker, we're talking a dozen Heavy launches in a week.

It's either a short launch window, or at least 6 Starships built and launched twice in ~10 days. Don't count out on SpaceX building 12 Heavy Starships just for that Artemis mission.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_III

fernandopj··on Trump wins presidency for second time
That's an amazing analysis on systematic bias!

The data he has to back up his "too close results to be true random polls" is fantastic.

fernandopj··on Boeing CEO says the company must fundamentally change
The iMac line was already a success even before the iPod. Apple was already becoming a great product company because it was already showing it understood the market better than PC companies.

> In the quarter the iMac shipped, Macintosh computer sales grew year-on-year for the first time since late 1995, and saw the Mac grow its worldwide market share from 3 to 5 percent. Apple went from losing $878 million in 1997 to making $414 million in 1998, its first profit in three years.

SourcE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMac_G3

fernandopj··on NASA spacecraft to probe possibility of life in Europa's salty ocean
I'm very much if you: $5b would be in range of _naming-rights_ for a couple missions for a space project.
fernandopj··on LinkedIn is now using everyone's content to train their AI tool
You would build a resume/recruitment platform, which has revenue directly related to how well it connects both parties, and recommend candidates over others due to metrics completely unrelated to their proficiency and job match?
fernandopj··on Comedian John Mulaney brutally roasts SF techies at Dreamforce
Apparently Seth Meyers did similar last year, so it's not like it it was unprecedent: https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/19/john-mulaney-skewers-san-f...
fernandopj··on LinkedIn is now using everyone's content to train their AI tool
LinkedIn was changed over the years to promote users who write on the platform.

Not just about viewership - if you are applying to positions, LinkedIn gives preference to candidates who are more engaged ON the network (posts, likes, comments, Pulse) over lurkers. [1]

So this is only getting worse. You'll have to see a lower quality feed just because the algorithm is forcing everyone to boost their own metrics anyway.

[1] https://www.linkedin.com/sales/ssi - See your own tracking, look at the metrics description

fernandopj··on Bitcoin puzzle #66 was solved: 6.6 BTC (~$400k) withdrawn
Your reply and Jerrrrrrry's closed this understanding for me.

The attack itself can't be mitigated because there's the incentive to try to force the blockchain with your own theft block because your fee is much higher for what appears to be the same transaction. But this attack, like you said, is only feasible for this niche domain of low entropy private keys.

fernandopj··on Bitcoin puzzle #66 was solved: 6.6 BTC (~$400k) withdrawn
But how could he have avoided this attack? I'm only familiar with Bitcoin's blockchain on a begginner level. But I assume the only way would be to avoid revealing the answer key (public) when sending the transaction to get the reward?
fernandopj··on Ubisoft Is 'Mismanaged, Shareholders Are Hostages'
Original letter: https://aj-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Ubisoft-Ope...
fernandopj··on SpaceX update regarding Starship FAA flight approval
I think your second paragraph is spot on.

I just don't understand why this seems to be an issue with this launch in particular, cause to me it just something that's done at every launch ever (throw water at a launching rocket). Isn't this a very well understood env impact anyway that Falcon 9 launches don't face those delays?

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