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fddhjjj

45 karma · joined March 13, 2021

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fddhjjj··on Theory X and Theory Y management
Douglas McGregor, the creator of these theories, had an interesting biography.

> He chose instead to pursue a psychology degree at what is now Wayne State University in Detroit. After two years, he married, dropped out of college, and worked as a gas station attendant in Buffalo, New York. By 1930 he had risen to the rank of regional gas station manager.

> McGregor decided to resume his studies while also working part-time. He completed a B.A. in 1932 from Wayne State University.

> Soon after graduation, he entered Harvard University where he studied for three years, earning an M.A. and Ph.D. in psychology.

fddhjjj··on Crypto trading firm Alameda Research might be insolvent
> To Doug's point the junk tokens are likely at book value on their balance sheet

The linked article in turn links to coin desk which writes

>> Also, token values may be low. In a footnote, Alameda says “locked tokens conservatively treated at 50% of fair value marked to FTX/USD order book.”

That suggests to me the unlocked coins are on the balance sheet at market value and the locked at a 50% haircut.

fddhjjj··on California man fined for selling maps of property boundaries without a license
Why not?
fddhjjj··on Temporary pause of Bitcoin withdrawals on Binance
Strong parallels between your definition with “isolation” and that offered by freemint in terms of decomposition into elements.

The nuance makes sense on its face. Although I don’t trust my own judgement of what impacts the real economy and what is just shuffling of decomposed elements of risk and reward.

fddhjjj··on Temporary pause of Bitcoin withdrawals on Binance
Super interesting and over my head but to oversimplif: automation and old financial “tools” (mortgages, index funds) good but (excessively?) “innovative financial instruments” is a bridge too far.

Still hard for people not deep in it — me — to see clearly that crypto doesn’t contain the seeds of a better index fund or a cheaper mortgage.

fddhjjj··on Temporary pause of Bitcoin withdrawals on Binance
Can you provide a decision rule that distinguishes financial services from financial engineering?

I do not feel as confident as you seem that the group of things called “crypto” will not be useful for financial services.

fddhjjj··on Temporary pause of Bitcoin withdrawals on Binance
I cited three examples of financial engineering. Just to be clear you oppose mortgages, index funds, and ATM machines?

I agree all of these or at least mortgages and index funds probably increase inequality especially given uneven access. As far as tangible goods — home ownership, retirement savings, and less time spent waiting at the bank.

fddhjjj··on Temporary pause of Bitcoin withdrawals on Binance
Why would programmable money be useful for anything beyond financial engineering. It’s literally engineering + finance.

Why is financial engineering inherently universally without qualification bad? I have a mortgage, an index fund, and an ATM card. I :heart: financial engineering.

fddhjjj··on How This Ends
Is your sense that the pandemic shutdowns have left us with supply issues?

It seems to me the economy is delivering all it ever did and more.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCES

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEDG

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96

fddhjjj··on How This Ends
Very clearly explained recent history. Thank you.

> Then in December, the megacaps we're squeezed further until the S&P 500 had a negative return relative to price!

What does this mean? What is negative return relative to price?

fddhjjj··on Modern Python Performance Considerations
> The key metric along this line is how often each language allows success to some level and how often they fail

How does python score on these key metrics?

fddhjjj··on Statistical Analysis shows Echos process voice to serve ads
As clarification, you are objecting to the phrase “process voice to [serve] ads” in the title which was provided by the submitter not the paper authors?
fddhjjj··on Statistical Analysis shows Echos process voice to serve ads
What part of the paper gives you the impression they imply voice assistants are listening to everything? I don’t get that.

The discussion in the paper is nuanced on that point and does not make that claim as far as I read it. Section 2.2 (page 2):

> The content of users’ speech can reveal sensitive information (e.g., private conversations) and the voice signals can be processed to infer potentially sensitive information about the user (e.g., age, gender, health [82]). Amazon aims to limit some of these privacy issues through its platform design choices [4]. Specifically, to avoid snooping on sensitive conversations, *voice input is only recorded when a user utters the wake word*, e.g., Alexa. Further, only processed transcriptions of voice input (not the audio data) is shared with third party skills, instead of the raw audio [32]. However, despite these design choices, prior research has also shown that smart speakers often misactivate and unintentionally record con- versations [59]. In fact, there have been several real-world instances where smart speakers recorded user conversations, without users ever uttering the wake word [63].

fddhjjj··on Why you’re not doing creative work
A lot of wisdom here. Allow me to just restate and expand on some of your thoughts.

1. If it goes from experimental to ship, you aren’t going to go back and make it shipshape.

2. Sanding time is meditation on the product. As I rework, I’m revisiting the code and design at multiple levels.

3. Before 10am is the old programmers 2am. It’s quiet. The hustle and interruptions of the day haven’t begun.

fddhjjj··on No one cared about my spreadsheets
There are dozens of examples in the wild of python code getting reviewed, corrected, and enhanced. I’m not a spreadsheet expert. Does that even happen for spreadsheets?
fddhjjj··on In second largest DeFi hack, Blockchain Bridge loses $320M Ether
No one made the claim that open source universally don’t fall victim to dishonesty. We were discussing the rate.
fddhjjj··on In second largest DeFi hack, Blockchain Bridge loses $320M Ether
Does the current evidence noted by fallat — the massive amount of extremely high impact open source projects that don't have malware embedded in them — suggest the error rate is much much lower that 1%?
fddhjjj··on Lightsail Containers: An Easy Way to Run Your Containers in the Cloud (2020)
Good product. Very easy to get going.

It would be nice to have a scale to zero ability.

fddhjjj··on It’s mostly a demand shock, not a supply shock, and it’s everywhere
Shadows stats has faced some criticism https://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/09/shadowstats_deb

Some wags have pointed out the price has been constant for many years https://web.archive.org/web/20080512223437/http://www.shadow...

The billion prices project independently collects prices and matches CPI well https://www.businessinsider.com/million-prices-project-vs-th...

Note that the inflation stats in Argentina *were* manipulated and official numbers differed from billion prices. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project

fddhjjj··on The wealthiest 10% of Americans own a record 89% of all U.S. stocks
The Fortune 500 CEOs might be closer than you think. Median pay last year was $12.7 million.

[1] https://www.equilar.com/reports/83-equilar-associated-press-...

fddhjjj··on Some reasons to work on productivity and velocity
Interesting POV. Can you elaborate on an alternative to the way of industry programming? Or more simply, list some of the ways in which industry brand programming is flawed?
fddhjjj··on Robert Sapolsky on Depression (2009)
If I felt said for a period of months without specific cause, yes, I would see a psychiatrist or psychologist.

What did the doctors who you did see say when you told them about your symptoms? It strikes me as odd that they did not recommend a mental health specialist.

fddhjjj··on The Baked Data architectural pattern
We switched from deployment:

> I wouldn't want to be deploying a multi-gigabyte binary every time i make a change to the dataset...

To runtime startup:

> lambda warmup time

And cost:

> RAM consumption is proportional to binary size

fddhjjj··on The Baked Data architectural pattern
It depends on your deployment setup? Or the frequency of dataset changes?

I check-in a one-line change and CI/CD kicks off a docker build and push. A multi gigabyte binary is pushed to AWS ECR every time. I hardly notice. One benefit is the consistency. Small change. Pushed. Large change. Pushed. Dataset. Pushed. New OS, new code, new lib, new data all the same.

Maybe it doesn’t scale to frequent updates? If you are streaming me data, I can’t update my image every second..

fddhjjj··on Programmatic Video Editing with Python
Very interesting. What libraries are out there for animations? Can I use python to make cartoon videos for my kids?
fddhjjj··on Fat Fritz is not the Only Ripoff and now ChessBase is Getting Sued
> Does it need to be loadable via pickle? Torch? Tensorflow?

If they don’t use pickle, they shouldn’t release in pickle format. They should release in a format such that you can take the source they release and use the model weights as required “installation information” and run the software. Probably the native format for the app.

We don’t know if they do or they don’t. That would be a matter to be decided in the court. Likewise you might argue the weights are not installation information in the GPL sense. Stock fish asserts they don’t release weights. Chess base hasn’t commented. I can’t find them.

Simply stating “the software runs! The weights must already be distributed” isn’t correct in the sense that the GPL demands. By analogy, “the software runs the source must already be distributed” isn’t correct in the same way.

I looked I don’t even see where they are releasing the code. Is it this? https://github.com/DanielUranga/Stockfish

fddhjjj··on Fat Fritz is not the Only Ripoff and now ChessBase is Getting Sued
> Stockfish claims they haven't released their NN weights. But that claim makes no sense. They distribute the weights with every copy of Fat Fritz. Otherwise, the product wouldn't work

There was a comment addressing that yesterday https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27901876

The form matters.

fddhjjj··on Ask HN: How Do You Write Documentation
Recent discussion on architecture documentation https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26048784