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fallingfrog

2,616 karma · joined May 3, 2015

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fallingfrog··on Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny
Having proof on video of trump sexually assaulting a minor would still be significant, I think. Such footage probably exists and would make great leverage.
fallingfrog··on Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny
And who was the person or group who made correct predictions in advance of the announcement? Why not just say who it was?
fallingfrog··on Tech companies defeat bill as AI drains local water supplies
It's funny that in movies like the matrix they imagine that humanity would fight back against the machines. In reality the first thing ai will do, which it has already done, is capture our governments through the application of money, and then the humans would first have to defeat their own institutions before they can even begin to fight the machines. Neoliberalism is profoundly unable to deal with threats if the threats produce short term profits. That goes for housing shortages, global warming, health care costs, falling birth rates, across the board if it produces short term profits that can be used to bribe politicians its impossible to address. AI is no different.
fallingfrog··on Workers who love ‘synergizing paradigms’ might be bad at their jobs
Yeah at my last job at a larger organization they would occasionally get us all in the big auditorium and start showering us with this sort of language. I would excuse myself to use the restroom then go back to my desk and get some work done. Peace and quiet! Never got called out on it, they don't need me sitting there rolling my eyes and grimacing through the whole thing anyway.
fallingfrog··on Dyson Spheres on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram
Personally I very much doubt that any civilization would build Dyson spheres in their naive spherical shell form, because the gravitational field inside a hollow shell is zero and therefore nothing would stick to the inner surface and would instead drift towards the host star. (Proved by sir Issac newton)

But more than that- the concept of the sphere is making a ton of hidden assumptions about the desirability of always wanting more and more space and energy which are probably a side effect of the kind of authoritarian power structures that rule most humans currently. But that may not be common.

Cool work though- good to know what to look for

fallingfrog··on Bitcoin tumbles below $70K, heavy losses in cryptocurrencies in last three weeks
Well the reason people buy bitcoin at 100k is because they think it will someday be worth a million. If it's never going to be worth a million, then it's not worth 100k either.
fallingfrog··on Oregon raised spending by 80%, math scores dropped
Have we looked at nutrition? Economic crises lead to sharp spikes in poor nutrition especially when social safety nets have been stripped back. A generation whose growth is stunted by malnutrition is a plausible outcome of "tough love" welfare reform. A lot of people either lost their jobs or had to quit to take care of their children during the crisis. And there was a much degraded safety net to catch them.
fallingfrog··on Heritability of intrinsic human life span is about 50%
My male ancestors died of cancer in their 70's and 80's but my great grandmothers lived to 93, 103, 99, and died in childbirth. I actually remember meeting my great great grandmother when I was 8 or 9 and she was 102.
fallingfrog··on 1 kilobyte is precisely 1000 bytes?
Yeah so I realize that at some point manufacturers of hard drives started to cheat and claim 10gb hard drives that were actually a bit less, using a 1000kb megabyte as their rationale, but that's just the marketing team engaging in false advertising. There's no reason to dignify such deception by inventing new words. They just lied. A mb is 1024 kbytes and a gb is 1024 mb. Sorry thats just how the math works out. A 16 kb address space can access 64kb or 65536 unique memory locations.
fallingfrog··on What Most People Miss About Getting Promoted
Would you put a professional manager straight out of business school with no military experience in charge of a platoon of marines and send them into a war zone? How do you imagine that would pan out? if not, why would you put such a person in charge of an engineering team? Do you imagine it would go any better?

Like sure eventually the person will learn the job but only after a significant cost in bad decisions.

fallingfrog··on Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018
Yes this is absolutely true. Difficult to impossible, I would say.. my prediction of "2 to 3 years" could very well be totally wrong.

The dominant narrative around bitcoin right now is "hodl because in the long term it always goes up." Thats the core premise that the bitcoin price is based on. If that premise were to crack, bitcoin could drop to near zero for all we know.

fallingfrog··on Bitcoin Looks Set for Longest Monthly Losing Streak Since 2018
As far as I can tell, bitcoin, having no intrinsic value, is priced entirely by vibes. Right now the vibes are generally negative. The latest bubble of interest has faded. I would wait, the world could become interested again but it may be 2 or 3 years. The bottom will probably be around 70k.
fallingfrog··on Tesla is committing automotive suicide
I wonder if he has some kind of dementia brought on by excessive consumption of ketamine? Or perhaps it's just that he has surrounded himself with people who will never tell him no. Sort of like a lot of dictators do where they have executed everyone around them who could give them pushback and therefore they end up living in a fantasy world while their people starve.

What I'm wondering at this point is why the investors in Tesla are still riding this crazy train. Blaming simple market manipulation seems far fetched. Mass hysteria and delusional beliefs are common enough in the stock market but reality eventually sets in and this bubble has been inflating for a long time. The people who lose the most are going to be the small investors- the really ruthless hedge fund bros will probably walk away unscathed.

fallingfrog··on The Rebirth of Pennsylvania's Infamous Burning Town
I visited Centralia about 20 years ago, I remember that we stopped the car on the way into town because there was a crack going all the way across the road with smoke coming out of it. But we kept walking and found a few abandoned houses and empty streets. We were too intimidated by all the scary signs to wander far off the road but took some pictures on a disposable camera and eventually returned home.
fallingfrog··on Alarm overload is undermining safety at sea as crews face thousands of alerts
Any equipment eventually fails. Designing it to fail safe- in a way that does not threaten the human operator- costs money. But a little warning message costs nothing and ensures that the human can be blamed when something goes wrong. The company can point to the message and say, "see, you should have known."

The message was never intended to help the human operator. It was intended to allow the company to avoid responsibility for cutting corners.

If the goal of the message was to communicate something important to the human operator, extraneous messages would be a serious problem. But if the goal is simply to cover the ass of the company, then extra error messages are not a problem at all. Thats why they never get fixed or pruned.

fallingfrog··on Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries
If we do simply print money to make the debt go away- foreign holders of that debt would benefit from being the first to sell for a more stable currency. The last to sell would be left holding the bag, would they not? Wouldn't this cause a run on the dollar and destabilize the world financial system?
fallingfrog··on How to store a chess position in 26 bytes (2022)
Thats a lovely observation! Very clever.
fallingfrog··on [dead]
Its a broad strokes overview but id love to see a deeper documentary exploring how this works. If the companies are taking on all this debt, which makes them subsequently implode, who is taking the losses on the loans and why are they still making those loans?
fallingfrog··on Why have death rates from accidental falls tripled?
The line between "falling" and "not falling" is extremely blurry for children- they will often do things like jump around, tuck and roll on the ground, hop like frogs and then scamper up the stairs on all fours and then flop down and roll around. Does that constitute a fall? Who knows. When i was young I remember reading on a form at a doctor's office "have you fallen in the last year?" And finding that an extremely humorous question. "Have you fallen in the last 5 minutes" would have been a more meaningful one but still very silly.

Even now at my age (40's) this fall I was crowd surfing at a car seat headrest concert in a black dress, and when I got to the front I was dropped in front of the stage, and then I stood up laughing and walked off to find my friends. Was that a fall? I don't know. Its just not really a question that makes sense when youre physically fit or young.

So yeah, i don't think that's it.

fallingfrog··on How to store a chess position in 26 bytes (2022)
Yes, I made a few mistakes and I did realize I didn't need the whole extra bit to store 65 possible locations- I just was being a bit lazy. Ba dum tiss.

Hmm as a bit field followed by piece order- that would be 8 bytes followed by a variable number of pieces, perhaps you could do a sort of compression where 0c means pawn and 1xxxc is any other piece. (c stands for a color bit). So thats another 14 bytes. Thats 22 bytes!

The xxx by the way is one of 8 things: k, k not moved, r, r not moved, n, b, q, en passant pawn

fallingfrog··on How to store a chess position in 26 bytes (2022)
Sorry I was in the car and read the headline and tried to see how I would do it as an exercise. I actually think I undercounted because for the king and rooks you have to store whether they have been moved yet, and for the pawns whether they just jumped two spaces (so you know if en passant is a valid move).

So I wasn't saying the article is wrong, just engaging in a bit of intellectual exercise.

My count was: there are 16 pawns, each could be in one of 64 places or not on the board, so 6+1 bits per pawn for that, and each could be promoted to a knight a bishop a rook or a queen, so 4+1 bits per pawn for that, and one of them might have just moved two spaces, so 3+1 bits for that. And the other 16 pieces don't change their nature so we only need to know where they are, so 6+1 bits for each of those, plus 3 bits for each of the rooks and the king to tell if they have already been moved. That's.. 40 bytes actually. Im really curious how they got it in 26.

Update: I see! They used illegal positions to store all the special statuses. Very clever!

fallingfrog··on How to store a chess position in 26 bytes (2022)
In my head I count 30 bytes, since all 16 pawns can be underpromoted to a bishop rook or knight.
fallingfrog··on The Big Regression
The thermostats in my house date to 1920 when the house was new, and they work just fine. Doesn't sound like the ones in this house will last that long.

(Of course mine each have little glass bulb half full of mercury in them, but that's a separate issue).

Edit: now that I look at them they might not be quite that old, but several decades anyway. Still theyre delightfully simple, there is a single wheel that you rotate clockwise or counter clockwise and that's it. Not a single button on them.

fallingfrog··on Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes
He needs the oil to fuel the military as they invade Canada and Mexico and Greenland. He wants a north American empire.

Come back in 3 years and tell me if i was right.

fallingfrog··on Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes
What's to stop Russia from simply abducting whoever we install in his place? If we can do it, anyone can. The arrogance is unbelievable.
fallingfrog··on Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured after strikes
This will lead to a long drawn out guerilla war in the name of oil. Thousands or tens of thousands will die. And trump does. Not. Care. At. All. Neither their lives, or yours or mine, have any meaning to him and his cabinet. They simply do not care.
fallingfrog··on We "solved" C10K years ago yet we keep reinventing it (2003)
Ha, I instantly read "reverse log taper, 10k ohms".
fallingfrog··on CEOs are hugely expensive. Why not automate them? (2021)
A CEO is just a mascot without the goofy outfit.
fallingfrog··on Researchers discover molecular difference in autistic brains
The autism itself, depending on the person, is often less of a problem than societal expectations. For example- in a world where everyone was red/green colorblind, such a condition would not be considered a handicap. And in a world where everyone was autistic, many things would be different.

Society punishes us severely for not being able to see the difference between red and green, to use that metaphor. And they seem to expect that if they punished us just a little harder, we would suddenly become normal. Thats the big problem. Non conforming behavior is always treated as a crime or offense on some level, but we cannot conform, and therefore must adjust to a life of endless punishment doled out by both authorities and peers.

Its quite difficult to go through life that way without developing a negative self image. This goes for people with autism, adhd and other types of neurodivergence.

fallingfrog··on Some Epstein file redactions are being undone
My favorite excerpt so far:

Case ID #: 50D-NY-302757

Witness Information

First Name: Donald

Middle Name:

Last Name: Trump

Age: 70

DOB:

Additional Info: Again, just trying to find out the NYPD detective on the FBI sex trafficking task force that called me a couple of weeks ago and spoke to me about some of these issues.

How is Contact Known: He participated regularly in paying money to force me to ‐----- with him and he was present when my uncle murdered my newborn child and disposed of the body in Lake Michigan.

Type: Business

Address:

City: Washington DC

State: District of Columbia

Zip: 20500

Country: United States

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