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Comment by fallingfrog | Hacker News Reader

As far as I can tell, bitcoin, having no intrinsic value, is priced entirely by vibes. Right now the vibes are generally negative. The latest bubble of interest has faded. I would wait, the world could become interested again but it may be 2 or 3 years. The bottom will probably be around 70k.

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What if all these AI companies, are going to mint coins with their idle GPUs, wouldn't that lower value of these coins massively ?

It's not as good as an ASIC, but we talk about millions of GPUs

Bitcoin mining on GPUs is generally unprofitable due to the price of electricity.

The rate of coin mining is the same, no matter how many miners there are

The trouble with vibe-based pricing is it’s really hard to time the vibes. And hard to time the vibe dip.

Yes this is absolutely true. Difficult to impossible, I would say.. my prediction of "2 to 3 years" could very well be totally wrong.

The dominant narrative around bitcoin right now is "hodl because in the long term it always goes up." Thats the core premise that the bitcoin price is based on. If that premise were to crack, bitcoin could drop to near zero for all we know.

Yeah, exactly.

While I’ve been watching it, it seems like the narrative of value has rotated between:

- BTC will be a global currency (this has only proven true for illicit activity)

- BTC will be a hedge against inflation like gold (this has also not been correct recently)

- BTC is a store of value??? Which is just circular reasoning… you should buy it because other people are buying it

Idk man, what do I know

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