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exogan

34 karma · joined July 27, 2014

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exogan··on How Safe AreYou from Covid When You Fly?
What a horrible UX on Safari.
exogan··on 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate
My bad, it did not break records outside the 1987, dot-com and GCF crises, made a mistake there. However, I don't agree with the theory of infinite economy growth (as you said "constantly be broken in the future").
exogan··on 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate
I'd rather have bonds with a small yield than the S&P (which fluctuated 3% almost every day this week) with a higher yield.
exogan··on 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate
The recent drop happened in only one week, it was really abrupt and breaking records.

GFC didn't happen over 1 week, the bear market from GFC was from October 9/10, 2007 to March 9, 2009.

exogan··on 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate
It's hard to objectively calculate how large the impact from corona virus will be and how it has affected the supply chain. Additionally, this could be a black swan event that could become a catalyst, this is not an isolated event and it will send a shockwave across the markets.

The losses in earnings as well as the reduction of consumption are hard to estimate, they need to be priced in into the stock's price which might be currently undervalued or overvalued. The idea is that no one knows exactly what the prices should look like. You might go for the S&P yield and end up losing 20% in the short term because of the price tanking.

The point is that investors like certainty, that's why some are holding cash or even a mix of bonds, cash and gold. They might prefer lower yields than S&P and more certainty.

exogan··on I hacked my best friend
I did help him remove the keylogger and explained him what I did. We've known each other since kindergarden. Plus, it was a mutual challenge, a capture the flag situation.